Poll: Sestak leads Toomey 46-42% in first major survey since Tuesday primaries

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Fresh off his surprise victory over longtime Senator Arlen Specter in Tuesday’s Democratic primary Joe Sestak appears to be carrying some serious momentum into the general election campaign.

Rasmussen Reports has released the first poll of post-primary collected date and its good news for the 7th District Congressman turned Senate nominee. Sestak leads opponent Pat Toomey, the easy victor on the Republican side, by a margin of 46-42%. This is the first time Sestak has led Toomey since declaring his candidacy for the position last August. Twelve-percent of Pennsylvania voters remain uncertain of either major party candidate or prefer someone else completely.

While Sestak has enjoyed plenty of momentum over the past few weeks it will be interesting to see if the results of this poll represent a short-lived bounce or are part of a broader trend. Two weeks ago the Democrat ran neck and neck with Toomey and his overall numbers from May are a marked improvement from Rasmussen polling from February through April. During that span Sestak’s average deficit was by a 45-37% margin. His current four-point advantage comes days after an impressive showing in Pennsylvania’s May 18th Democratic primary. The second term congressman effectively ended the political career of state institution Arlen Specter by a 54-46% margin.

Pat Toomey was the runaway winner on the Republican side with 82% of the vote capturing the nomination without being seriously contested. Toomey continues to run ahead of Sestak with unaffiliated voters by a margin of 41-32%. Sestak meanwhile has received a substantial boost from his own party as the latest polling indicates he is now supported by 80% of Pennsylvania Democrats, up sixteen-points from before Tuesday’s primary. 20% of voters in the Keystone State now view Sestak “very” favorably against 13% who hold a very unfavorable opinion and 14% who are undecided. Toomey has a solid 21-10% split between those viewing him very favorably and unfavorably while 19% of voters don’t offer an opinion either way.

Many within the Democratic ranks are banking on a Sestak win in the fall to help stem the tide of a possible Republican insurgency. Political analyst Larry J. Sabato of the University of Virginia predicts substantial Democratic losses in the November election but not damaged badly enough to lose control of either the House or Senate. Currently his projections show the Republicans with a net gain of seven-seats in the Senate and 27-seats in the House of Representatives. He also rates the Senate race in Pennsylvania as a toss-up. Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com meanwhile believes Toomey and the Republicans have a 71% chance of victory in the Keystone State, but that assessment came before these recent poll findings from Rasmussen.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Michael Perez

Poll: Specter and Sestak race 'too close to call' as we head to Election Day

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It’s down to the wire in the Keystone State and polls show a virtual dead heat.

Tomorrow, May 18th, Democrats across Pennsylvania will cast their vote for which candidate will represent their party against Republican Pat Toomey in November. Long time Senator and recently minted Democrat Arlen Specter was seen as the front runner in the race against second term Congressman Joe Sestak. In recent weeks however as a flurry of campaign ads and issues raised from both sides have filled the airwaves the battle for Specter’s long held Senate seat has heated up.

Suggesting the race is still at a deadlock might actually be encouraging words to Arlen Specter supporters. After all some reputable new polling in recent days shows the Sestak insurgency has moved in front.


Last week a survey from Rasmussen Reports showed, that for the first time, Sestak had moved ahead of Specter by a margin of 47-42% in their primary showdown. A new survey conducted by Franklin & Marshall in affiliation with the Philadelphia Daily News meanwhile places Sestak as the narrow front runner. With a lead of 38-36% in that poll over a quarter of voters have yet to voice their preference for either candidate. Released this morning a new poll from Quinnipiac meanwhile shows a virtually even race. The poll has Sestak inching in front by a margin of 42-41%. Still a relatively high number of Democratic voters (16%) remain undecided of either candidate whereas a quarter of those supporting either suggest they could change their decision prior to heading into the voting booth on Tuesday.

"The Sestak-Specter race is a dead heat and could go either way. Sen. Arlen
Specter has the party organization behind him, which should help with turnout.
But Congressman Joe Sestak could benefit from the relatively large group of
undecided voters. Generally, incumbents don't do all that well with undecideds,
who are more likely to vote for the challenger or not vote." -- Peter A. Brown,
assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute

With a large number of Pennsylvanians from all parties believing Arlen Specter has worn out his welcome as a representative in the U.S. Senate and the general anti-incumbent tone of this election cycle it’s easy to see where the veteran senator’s difficulties lie. But Democrats in the Keystone State also seem to be keeping watchful out for which candidate matches up better with Pat Toomey, the presumptive Republican nominee, in the fall.

Released last Monday a Rasmussen poll finds Joe Sestak as considerably more likely to keep the senate seat from falling into Republican hands. In their still hypothetical match up Sestak trails Toomey by just two-points, 42-40%. Arlen Specter meanwhile is currently outdistanced by the Republican candidate to the tune of a twelve-point, 50-38% margin. The Franklin & Marshall survey found a more level playing field with Toomey ahead of Sestak 29-28% and leading Specter by a statistically insignificant 35-33% margin.

That said this election appears to be referendum on the current political environment nationally and on Senator Specter’s declining popularity at home. Just 32% of Pennsylvanians rated Specter’s job performance as “good” or “excellent” against 33% who labeled it only “fair” and an additional 29% who rate it “poor”. With such large blocks of voters undecided only a day out from going to the polls the Specter campaign still appears to have life. It is however hard to ignore the momentum that has been pointing in the direction of his challenger for several weeks now. Don’t count Arlen out but expect a Sestak victory and tight race between he and Toomey that will stretch across the next five and half months.

Poll: Sestak now leads Specter 47-42% in Pennsylvania Senate race

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With just over a week remaining before droves of Pennsylvanians will vote in their highly publicized Democratic primary a just released survey from Rasmussen Reports indicates some major new developments.

According to the poll 7th District Congressman Joe Sestak has now caught and passed longtime Senator Arlen Specter in their race for the Democratic nomination. As of this morning “likely” voters as tracked by Rasmussen indicate a lead for the second-term congressman at 47-42%. With the election set to take place on Tuesday, May 18th, 8% of Pennsylvanian Democrats remain undecided and another 3% support a different candidate from their party.

Other national polls have indicated the race for Specter’s Senate seat has tightened in recent weeks but this is the first major poll to show an outright lead for Sestak. In March Specter’s lead was a seemingly comfortable 48-37%. In April however an aggressive ad campaign by Sestak-camp began to whittle away the lead and by mid-month the Senator’s advantage was down to a virtual 44-42% tossup. A month later Sestak’s sudden advantage has perhaps been bolstered by what many viewers considered a strong televised debate performance as well as the anti-incumbent sentiment permeating through the political landscape of 2010.

It will be interesting to see if other pollsters reflect these new findings as the Rasmussen survey results are based off of a relatively small sample of just 408-likely Democratic voters. A much larger poll of 930-likely voters conducted by Quinnipiac University just last week showed Specter retaining an shrinking but respectable 47-39% lead over his Democratic rival.

With the airwaves of the Philadelphia region and beyond now filled by attack ads coming from both sides the public sentiment seems to be favoring Sestak’s approach. Whereas 35% of voters consider Arlen Specter’s campaign to be taking on a negative tone just 11% accuse of Sestak of the same. 39% meanwhile see Sestak as running a mostly positive advertising and speaking campaign with just 22% of the opinion that Senator Specter is engaging in that as well.

The small disparity between each candidate’s favorable and unfavorable ratings eludes to the likelihood that Pennsylvania Democrats are basing their support on campaign tone or wedge issues. Arlen Specter is viewed favorably by 67% of Democratic voters in the Keystone State with 31% viewing him unfavorably. Joe Sestak meanwhile has a 63-22% favorable to unfavorable split with 14% of Democrats still not knowing enough about the congressman to cast any sort of opinion.

Whichever candidate wins the testy May 18th primary they’ll likely have their hands full against Republican challenger Pat Toomey. Rasmussen polling of less than a month ago showed Toomey with a 50-40% advantage over Senator Specter and a 47-36% lead over Congressman Sestak. If the volatile race for Senate on the Democratic side of serves as any sort of general election preview however a Toomey match up against either nominee could be a vicious and narrow race to the finish line.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / RICK SCHULTZ

Poll: Specter and Sestak race now a dead heat, both Senate hopefuls trail Republican Toomey

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Just over a month until Pennsylvania’s Democratic Primary and Rasmussen Reports has dropped something of a bombshell on Arlen Specter’s campaign to retain his Senate seat.

Two new polls indicate that Senator Specter has fallen to his lowest level of support yet among Democrats and he continues to lag well behind with the general electorate. In his battle for the party nomination he now leads 7th District Congressman by a mere two-percent while trailing Republican Pat Toomey by ten-points.

Since one in ten Pennsylvania Democrats remain unsure of their preference for either Specter or Sestak the incumbent Senator’s 44-42% lead is now being depicted as a dead heat. Although he has been losing ground since the beginning of the year these new developments have to come as something of a surprise for Specter. Last month he enjoyed a 48-37% lead over Sestak and registered as high as 53% support as of January.

Arlen Specter still captures the strong support of quarter of Pennsylvania Democrats (25%) but 15% view him “very” unfavorably. The lesser known Sestak does better with those holding strong feelings. He registered a 17% very favorable against just a 4% very unfavorable rating according to Rasmussen. The health care issue is a divisive one amongst Democrats in the Keystone State just as it is for virtually all voters nationally. 60% of Democrats in Pennsylvania believe the health care bill passed last month to be a good thing for the country with 29% thinking it will have a negative impact. With 54% support Specter does better with those holding positive views of the reform bill. Sestak meanwhile does considerably better (59%) with those Democrats who oppose the bill meanwhile.

Regardless of who comes out on top of this heated primary battle they will face an uphill climb against Republican Pat Toomey. Running with a strong wind at his back during this favorable election cycle for the GOP, Toomey has jumped out to a 50-40% lead over Specter and an equally solid 47-36% advantage on Sestak. In the Toomey versus Specter matchup only 6% of voters are uncertain of whether they’d support either candidate while 4% suggest they’ll vote for someone else. Those figures grow to 12% and 5% respectively when looking at the potential matchup of Toomey against Sestak.

Most Pennsylvanians (53%) are against the recently passed health care bill through congress and six in ten voters (60%) would like to see it repealed. Senator Specter is being tied to the bill having voted for it and expressing vocal public support for its passage during a highly publicized series of town hall meetings last August. 84% of those favoring repeal not surprisingly support Pat Toomey’s campaign whereas 82% of the 37% minority of those Pennsylvanians against repeal side with Specter.

Senator Specter’s support bottomed out at around 36% during the town hall meeting debates last year. Although he has campaigned heavily in the months since his numbers have not increased past the 42% mark. Congressman Sestak meanwhile has been wedged between 35% and 38% support in Rasmussen surveys dating back to last October. Toomey leads either candidate by a wide margin among men, independents and narrowly among women. The Republican is viewed very favorably by 18% of the electorate in Pennsylvania with 10% holding a very unfavorable view. More than twice as many voters (33%) have a strongly unfavorable than favorable opinion (16%) of Arlen Specter. Joe Sestak is now in the negatives as well earning a very favorable opinion from 10% of Pennsylvanians against 12% who view him very unfavorably.

The narrow range of support for either Democratic potential corresponding to a consistent lead for Toomey gives the impression of a race that is stabilizing. This could make things difficult for a marked incumbent like Arlen Specter or a political upstart like Joe Sestak to change the minds of a large enough number of voters for victory in the fall.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / MATT ROURKE

Analysis: Republicans currently on track to pick up between three and nine Senate seats

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Seven months out from the midterm elections and the dynamics remain the same. The Republican Party is primed to make significant gains in both the House and Senate but with their pace stalling to some degree it is unlikely they’ll carry enough autumn momentum for a takeover of either.

Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball analysis released their April update this morning, focusing attention on the Senate. Although there have been subtle shifts in particular races since last month the overall picture indicating a likely GOP pickup of 7-seats in the Senate and 27 in the House remains the same from March to April.

The Republicans are protecting 18-seats in the Senate this election season. Ten of those eighteen are labeled by the Crystal Ball as “safe” for the GOP. Four additional states (Florida, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina) are being depicted as “likely” holds for the party. In Florida the big story is the primary challenge between former House Speaker Marco Rubio and sitting Governor Charlie Crist. Rubio is polling ahead of Crist and either Republican is likely to defeat Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meet in the fall. In Iowa Charles Grassley is the likely winner over Democratic Roxanne Conlin and Republicans David Vitter and Richard Burr appear to have the decided advantage in their races out of Louisiana and North Carolina respectively.

The GOP is clearly vulnerable in four other states; Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio. All of which are labeled as “toss-up” races by Sabato. Chastened Senator Jim Bunning is retiring after 2010 and there is quite an ideological battle for the Republican nomination as his successor. Secretary of State Ted Greyson is the establishment candidate but Ron Paul’s son Rand has strong backing from moderates in the state favoring his more libertarian political slant as well. On the Democratic side Leiutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo is in a tussle with Attorney General Jack Conway. While either candidate, particularly against Paul, has opportunity for a victory in November it’s clearly uphill sledding for the Democratic Party in Kentucky during this political season.

Missouri has tilted toward the GOP in recent years as demonstrated by President Obama’s narrow loss here in 2008 despite a national popular vote margin of better than seven-percentage points. House Republican Roy Blunt is favored to win the race against Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. In New Hampshire former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte is banking on the Republican wave to help usher her in as the victor in the Granite State. She’ll have her hands full with popular Congressman Paul Hodes however who looks to pull off the modest upset for the Democrats. Lastly the bellwether state of Ohio features an interesting primary battle between Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner on the Democratic side. The winner will go on to face the favored former GOP Congressman Rob Portman.

Not surprisingly the Democrats head into the 2010 election season with a far more difficult task in protecting their majorities. This is reflected by numerous competitive Senate races amongst the 18-seats they are looking to hold onto after this November. Only in half of those races however can the Democrats truly bank on victory. This includes “safe” territory such as Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin as well as “likely” wins in the New York special election and Connecticut. Elsewhere danger lurks around every corner.

Senator Barbara Boxer is in the fight of her life in California. While the Crystal Ball predicts the left-leaning electorate could result in a narrow victory for her in the fall Republican’s Tom Campbell and Carly Fiorina are both capable of giving the embattled Senator a fight in a state that seems sick and tired of pretty much everything relating to politics. Colorado is a pure toss-up between two possible Democrats facing off against presumptive GOP candidate and Lietenant Governor Jane Norton. A far messier battle is underway in Barack Obama’s home state of Illinois. Democrat Alexi Giannoulias has corruption charges swirling around campaign but Republican Mark Kirk doesn’t seem content to run as conservative or moderate in this decidedly “blue” state.

Two other states with fascinating battles on their hands are Indiana and Pennsylvania. Brad Ellsworth has the difficult choir off trying to succeed popular Senator Evan Bayh who was successful for years in typically “red” Indiana. However Republican Dan Coats is running a lackluster campaign and while he still has the edge Indiana should be a battle down to the wire. In the Keystone State meanwhile the high profile fight for the Democratic nomination seems to be leaning in Senator Arlen Specter’s direction. Interestingly it is Congressman Joe Sestak who seems to so better against Republican nominee Pat Toomey in general election polling. Specter is banking on his experience and Toomey’s conservative politics in a left of center state to guide him to victory. Never the less Toomey and the GOP appear to have the edge in Pennsylvania.

Much to the Democrats dismay four other states show the likihood of Republican pickups in November. North Dakota is a no brainer for the GOP with retiring Democratic Senator Byron Dorgon giving way to Republican Governor John Hoeven. Three other states (Arkansas, Delaware and Nevada) meanwhile represent fertile territory for the GOP.

Even if Blanche Lincoln is able to defeat liberal challenger Bill Halter in next month’s primary the chances of retaining her post in Arkansas look fairly slim. Lincoln has been railed against nationally and in her home state by Republicans like Congressman John Boozman, her likely opponent. In Delaware the absence of Joe Biden to the office of Vice President and the refusal of his son Beau to run for the open Senate seat means it is more than likely that popular Congressman and former Governor Mike Castle is heavily favored to defeat Democrat Chris Coons. Lastly one of the more talked about Senate races is in Nevada where embattled Majority Leader Harry Reid is effectively behind any and all Republican challengers vying for his seat. Public anger towards Reid over health care and a strong grassroots movement by conservatives in his home state have made reelection unlikely. However with millions of dollars at his disposal and no powerful names in the Republican field to oppose him it’s a little early to count out Harry just yet.

As the Crystal Ball details the lay of the land it seems there are still a variety of possibilities remaining that could wind up with the seven-Republican Senate victories as predicted or a better or worse showing by the GOP. The ceiling for the GOP seems to be a pickup of nine-seats. This would include held seats by Republicans in all races where they lead decisively or the advantage swings their direction plus pick ups in all five incumbent Democratic toss ups and those races where the GOP has on outright lead. The worst reasonable expectation for Republicans would likely result in the Democrats holding on to a majority of those toss up races in their column plus two or three “steals” in races that current lean in the GOP’s direction. This could mean a pickup of just three Senate seats for the Republican Party. Averaging the two would ensure a safe estimate of six Republican pickups. Factoring at least one more for the GOP simply through the anti-incumbent, anti-Democratic wave that is blowing through this political season would place seven new Republicans in the Senate for 2011.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / JOSE SANCHEZ

Poll: Toomey still leads in Pennsylvania Senate race with Specter ahead of Sestak

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No major shakeups in the race for Arlen Specter’s Senate seat in Pennsylvania. The latest round of surveys from Rasmussen Reports indicate Republican Pat Toomey holding a solid lead over Specter and a modest advantage over Joe Sestak all the while Specter continues to lead his challenger for the upcoming Democratic Primary.

Toomey’s 49-40% lead over Arlen Specter is identical to last month’s Rasmussen poll that also showed a nine-point advantage. Since then both candidates have picked up a couple of points in support from previously undecided voters but with Toomey’s steady lead, a shrinking number of uncommitted voters to attract and an election calendar growing shorter by the day the news has to be welcoming to the Republican challenger.

Upstart congressman Joe Sestak runs better against Toomey for a second-straight month but continues to trail Specter in their upcoming May 18th primary for the Democratic nomination. Toomey is in front of Sestak 42-37% and a considerable number of Pennsylvania voters (15%) remain undecided on either candidate. Unfortunately for Sestak he hasn’t been able to take a sizeable chunk out of the longtime Senator Specter’s lead within the party although his deficit of eleven-percentage points is slightly smaller than the 13% hole he was in last month.

Most view the race for Senate in Pennsylvania as a referendum on Arlen Specter’s personal popularity, or lack thereof, following a party switch last year and his continued support for President Obama’s controversial health care plan. Specter is viewed very unfavorably by far more voters (34%) than the number who view him very favorably (14%). Meanwhile support for the President’s health care plan is modestly lower in the Keystone State than it is nationally. 41% in Pennsylvania favor the plan but 58% are opposed. The latest Rasmussen tracking on the topic nationally shows Americans divided by a margin of 43-53%.

Joe Sestak earns the strong support of one in ten Pennsylvania voters (10%) and is strongly rejected by 11%. Pat Toomey not surprisingly is the most popular of all candidates with a 17% very favorable and an 11% very unfavorable rating.

While viewed as battleground state for many elections both locally and nationally Pennsylvania appears to have moved to the political left in recent years. A Republican presidential candidate has not carried the state since 1988 and recent congressional and gubernatorial elections have favored Democratic candidates considerably. Barack Obama won Pennsylvania by 10.5% over John McCain in 2008 and an Ed Rendell captured reelection for Governor by nearly twenty-points over Republican Lynn Swann in 2006. That said the President’s job approval, mirroring national totals, is 48% among voters in the Keystone State with 51% disapproving. Governor Rendell meanwhile is also modestly unpopular to the tune of a 47-52% approval to disapproval rating.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / CAROLYN KASTER

Poll: Little change in Pennsylvania as Republicans continue to hold lead in races

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State Attorney General Tom Corbett holds a comfortable lead over his Democratic challengers for Pennsylvania Governor. Meanwhile fellow Republican Pat Toomey retains a solid advantage in the race for a Senate seat over Arlen Specter and Congressman Joe Sestak.

The latest polling conducted by Rasmussen shows Corbett holding a 49-28% lead over State Auditor Jack Wagner, leading Congressman Joe Hoeffel by 22-points and outdistancing Allegheny Country Chief Executive Dan Onorato by 26%.

Corbett held two-to-one leads over four Democratic hopefuls in January polling. His current success is bolstered by a significantly higher percentage of Pennsylvania voters who have a very favorable opinion of him (17%) over those who view him very unfavorably (5%). The Attorney General does well in virtually all sub-groupings including women and unaffiliated voters. While 18% of the state does not know enough about Corbett to form an opinion as of yet that figure jumps to around one-third of the Pennsylvania electorate when talking about the Democratic challengers.

In the race for Arlen Specter’s Senate seat Republican Pat Toomey continues to lead the veteran politician by nine-points, 47-38%. One in ten Pennsylvanias prefer another candidate in the event of that match up or remain uncertain of their support. Joe Sestak actually does slightly better against Toomey than Specter. He trails 43-35% but a considerable number of voters (15%) still are unsure about either candidate meaning the Delaware County Congressman has the potential to pick up more ground. The problem for Sestak is that he continues to run well behind Senator Specter in their primary contest. Although Rasmussen shows an improvement for him from last month Sestak still trails 51-36%.

Toomey is viewed very favorably by fourteen-percent of Pennsylvanians and very unfavorably by ten-percent. Arlen Specter has the highest level of strong support (18%) and opposition (38%) of any of the three candidates. Joe Sestak meanwhile is very favorable with just seven-percent of voters, very unfavorable with thirteen-percent and relatively unknown to most. Those numbers have changed little in recent months pointing toward a race that could be stabilizing some. Pennsylvania Democrats, who outnumber registered Republicans, will choose their party’s nominee in the May 18th primary. The general election that follows in November will decide whether the Keystone State has two Senate Democrats or one heading into 2011.

Governor Ed Rendell (43%) and President Barack Obama (44%) similarly struggle with low approval ratings in Pennsylvania although Rasmussen has consistently tracked both lower than in other polls. Seven in ten (71%) claim anger over the current policies of the federal government and similar to national polling a significant majority (58%) in Pennsylvania also believe neither Democratic nor Republican leaders in Congress know what the country needs to do in order to get back on the right track. The anti-incumbent sentiment for 2010 is reflected by the nearly two-thirds (66%) of Keystone State voters who believe the country would be better off if the current status quo was defeated. By a margin of 44-34% more voters also believe their own local representative should be defeated for reelection.

One more interesting tidbit from Rasmussen polling concerns the world of sports. With constant discussing over the future of the Eagles and their starting quarterback Donovan McNabb the question of whether the eleven-year veteran should stay or go was also asked. The survey found nearly identical percentages of those who believe the Eagles should to trade McNabb (28%) as those who say he should remain the team’s quarterback next season (27%). A plurality (45%) however is undecided on what to do with “Number Five” in 2010.

Poll: Toomey takes big lead in new survey, but how revealing is the data?

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Franklin & Marshall College recently conducted their first survey in three months. There were a number of interesting findings from the 1,165 Pennsylvanian adults sampled. Most notably the poll offers up some sobering news for President Obama and some downright bad news for two Democrats seeking to capture or retain a Senate seat this fall.

The major headlines will likely center around Franklin & Marshall’s polling of the Senate race that now shows Republican Pat Toomey leading Arlen Specter by fourteen-points among “likely” voters and Congressman Joe Sestak by a whopping twenty-two. Toomey’s lead among “registered” voters meanwhile is non-existent versus Specter and he holds a more modest 12% advantage over Sestak. Using either tracking method there are a large number of Pennsylvania voters claiming to be undecided, not particularly surprising considering the unique dynamics of a race involving a veteran party switch and heated primary battle. But which is a better source of polling; likely voters or registered voters?

Noted survey analyzer Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com chimes in on the discussion that shows a 30-30% dead heat between Toomey and Specter in one model and decisive lead of 45-31% for the Republican challenger in the other. Silver suggests that likely voter samples are a better source of polling but only as Election Day draws nearer. Some analysis will find value in combining the results of both. In this case Toomey’s lead would be represented as around seven-percentage points over Arlen Specter and around 17% over Joe Sestak. Silver’s policy however is to lean towards using registered voter models up through Labor Day and then switching to likely voter tracking for the stretch run.

Franklin & Marshall typically does a terrific job and offers up a wealth of information on the state of affairs in Pennsylvania. That said, in this case their polling of only 395-likely voters among the 993-sample of registered voters alludes to a turnout of only around 40% for the state. In reality midterm elections generally see a registered voter turnout of around 65-70% and in the instance of Pennsylvania’s high profile Senate race for 2010 that number could easily exceed three-quarters of the voting population.

Furthermore a curiously high number of poll responders claim to either be or lean Republican. 46% of poll responders are registered Democrat, 43% Republican and nine-percent independent. The breakdown from the Franklin & Marshall survey also shows 45% leaning Republican, 44% Democrat and nine-percent described as pure independents. The Pennsylvania Department of State’s official breakdown of voter registration however shows a Democratic edge of 51-37-12% over Republican’s and other/independents.

Does this mean current social conditions that seem to be favoring Republican candidates are rapidly gripping Pennsylvania as well? Or does it simply mean that Republican’s are unintentionally over-sampled by this Franklin & Marshall survey? Silver ultimately claims the low likely voter sample to be more a calculation of “highly enthusiastic” voters than those who are likely to show up at the polls in general come November. In a Democracy of course a highly engaged vote for Toomey is offset by a lethargic vote for Specter or Sestak. Still it seems clear that Republicans are winning the enthusiasm battle at this point.

Elsewhere the Franklin & Marshall survey finds Dan Onorato and Tom Corbett as the leading candidates from a field of Democrats and Republicans vying for their party’s nomination for Governor. In both instances there is an exceedingly high number, over 70%, of undecided voters in either party.

By a margin of 53-39% most Pennsylvania voters feel their state if heading in the wrong direction. That is an improvement however from recent polls and represents the highest level of confidence since June of last year. 50% also claim their family is an about the same financial shape as they were this time last year, but four times as many (40%) claim they are worse off than better (10%). Optimism is stronger when looking ahead. Although not polling as high as in recent months more Pennsylvanians (27%) are confident they’ll be better off a year from now than worse off (17%).

Governor Rendell’s favorability rating has risen to 42%. While that’s still below the 45% who view him unfavorably it does mark an improvement from recent months. His personal best came in October of 2006 when voters had a favorable opinion of the Governor by a 54-30% margin helping pave the way to a landslide victory for reelection the next month. Also rebounding some is Senator Specter (35%) who ties his highest level of favorability since last March. At a 32-20% favorable to unfavorable margin Bob Casey Jr., not up for reelection until 2012, holds steady from the last Franklin & Marshall survey. President Obama meanwhile continues to struggle. For the first time in his Presidency the number of Pennsylvania voters viewing Obama unfavorably (44%) matches his favorable percentage (44%). Furthermore just 38% give Obama good or excellent marks for handling his job as President, 32% a fair grade and 29% feel he is doing a poor job in office.

Polling on other topics the survey indicates healthcare (29%) and the economy (24%) as the two major concerns for Pennsylvanians in deciding their vote for Senate this fall. Just sixteen-percent think the PA state legislature is doing a good or excellent job and 78% think Pennsylvania state government needs reform with nine in ten voters (91%) feeling somewhat or very strongly about the issue.

Nineteen-percent of Pennsylvanians describe themselves as liberal, 30% moderate and 42% conservative. The number of liberals has held relatively steady through the decade ranging from a high of 22% to a low of 15%. The current percentage is similar to the 18.5% average measured over the past ten-years. Moderates have shown considerable decline over the past year meanwhile whereas self-described conservatives are appearing at record levels in recent months. The average number of moderates and conservatives over the past decade is 40.5% and 35.25% respectively. Currently at 30% however moderate Pennsylvanians number an all-time low and down from a high of 52% measured in September of 2004. Conservatives meanwhile set a record in August of last year (43%) and their 40.25% average from the past seven months is noticeably higher than the 35.25% in the last decade overall.

Lastly on the topic of abortion and religion 73% of Pennsylvanians believe abortion should be legal. This includes 50% who think it ought to be legal under certain circumstances and 23% who would prefer to see it legal under any circumstance. That’s a slightly lower total than the average taken from the past decade but still more than three-times the percentage (24%) of those who currently feel abortion should be illegal in all circumstances. 81% of Keystone State voters believe in the Bible in meanwhile – a figure that is right in line with averages taken from the past five and a half years of polling.


PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Pablo Martinez Monsivais

Poll: Toomey widens lead over Democratic challengers, Specter well ahead of Sestak

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On the same day Philadelphia businessman Tom Knox drops out of the race for Pennsylvania Governor Pat Toomey expands his lead on two other Democratic hopefuls for high office.

In the race for Senate Republican Toomey has increased his lead from four points over Arlen Specter and six over Congressman Joe Sestak to advantages of nine and eight points respectively. The survey from Rasmussen Reports also indicates that prior to switching parties earlier last year Senator Specter was trailing by over twenty-points to Toomey. The political environment has continued to sour for Democrats in the months since and the party is currently reeling from a damaging special-election Senate defeat in Massachusetts on Tuesday.

Specter’s troubles are more with his tarnished reputation outside his current party than with Democrats. Just 16% view him favorably against a third of the Pennsylvania electorate (33%) who hold an unfavorable view. Joe Sestak who is currently running a point better against the Republican challenger than Specter is running far behind the veteran Senator in their primary battle, 53-32%. Sestak also has failed to obtain strong levels of support or recognition amongst voters. His very favorable numbers top out at eight-percent against eleven-percent who view him very unfavorably in the Keystone State, meaning four in five voters have either lukewarm feelings or still do not know enough about the Seventh District Congressman.

Toomey meanwhile also struggles from strong name recognition but does attract slightly more favorable support (12%) than unfavorable (10%). Larry J. Sabato’s is a contributor to Rasmussen. His famous “Chrystal Ball” that almost perfectly predicted the 2006 midterms election in the both the House and Senate places the race in Pennsylvania in the toss-up category. He does suggest however that the advantage leans toward Toomey. In fact if the midterm elections were held today the Democrat’s majority in the U.S. Senate would drop to 52-seats according to Sabato’s polling.

Another notable pollster, Nate Silver from Fivethirtyeight.com proposes a slightly rosier outlook for Democrats in November as he gives the party in power a good chance of securing at least 53 or 54 Senate seats. In Pennsylvania however his current assessment shows the Senate seat leaning toward Pat Toomey and gives the Republican a 72% chance of victory. In total of the 36 races statistically analyzed by Silver at Fivethirtyeight twenty-four show Republicans with a lead of at least three-percentage points to just eleven where the Democrats are out in front – polls show Illinois deadlocked.

Back to Pennsylvania politics, 57% oppose the healthcare reform bill now in peril and better than two-thirds (67%) are concerned over the possibility of another terrorist attack this year. Like most of the country Pennsylvanians are down on the economy and pessimistic about its rebound in the near future. Just five-percent rate it as good or excellent against 51% who say it is poor. Furthermore 31% think it's getting better but 42% claim it is getting worse.

Tom Knox stepping out of the race for Governor and offering up his support to rival Dan Onorato was perhaps equal parts a desperate and selfless act. With the three other candidates in the Democratic primary quickly dismissing the idea of doing the same, the dichotomy helps sum up the current political landscape for Democrats; United on certain fronts, fractured in others and heading into an autumn election season with plenty of unease and uncertainty.

AP PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS / MATT ROURKE

Poll: Pennsylvania & Delaware vulnerable for Democrats in 2010 Senate race

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The start of the New Year hopefully brings renewed optimism amongst Americans. The 2000s were a difficult time and the final two years of the decade were especially a struggle. In Washington meanwhile it’s business as usual. 2010 marks a crucial midterm-voting year where Republicans look to reverse recent loses all the while the Democrats try to solidify their political majorities.

Nate Silver and the folks atfivethirtyeight.com recently ranked each Senate race by the likelihood for a takeover from the opposing party. All factors such as low approval ratings for incumbents, primary challenges and retirements were taken into consideration.

At the top of the list ranks a Philadelphia neighbor to the south, the First State of Delaware. Beau Biden has not declared his candidacy for the state’s at-large Senate race since his father Joe’s resignation of the position earlier this year to assume the role of Vice President. If he does declare we could have an interesting race on our hands. If not it appears to be a virtual walkover for popular Congressman and former Governor Mike Castle. Currently FiveThirtyEight places Castle’s chances of beating Biden at around 55%, but nearly 100% over a lesser-known Democrat if the VP’s son decides to remain at his post of Attorney General.

Locally all the talk is about the high profile Pennsylvania race between Republican Pat Toomey and the winner of a primary battle featuring longtime Senator Arlen Specter and two-term Congressman Joe Sestak. Nate Silver claims that in an “ordinary” election cycle Toomey would have difficulty beating either Democratic candidate especially Specter. In a year where Democrats will be forced into a hard sell of their message to a skeptical American public however Toomey seems primed for an upset opportunity. Polls in the Keystone State show a virtual tossup between Specter and Toomey with Sestak lingering close behind.

Shifting attention away from local politics to the state of Connecticut high-ranking Senator Chris Dodd is in serious trouble. Recently an internal poll placed him behind representative Rob Simmons by five-points. National polls have Dodd even further behind and there are indications that he might not even win his party’s nomination for 2010.

Concern for Democrats range throughout the top of the FiveThirtyEight list of vulnerable incumbents. Senate majority leader Harry Reid faces huge challenges in his home state of Nevada. The likelihood that Reid will lose his race continues to grow but there are some reasons for optimism as Nate Silver’s website points out. Reid has a significant war chest full of cash on hand, the perception of his effectiveness should improve in the event that he passes health care reform, the Democrats control the party machine of Nevada and Republicans in the Silver State remain untested.

Elsewhere Blanche Lincoln has a battle on her hands in the state of Arkansas and wisely strayed from the limelight during the health care debate. In Colorado Michael Bennet is said to be vulnerable but Silver suggests that more polling is needed before the race can truly be labeled.

While clearly sitting in better position for numerous takeovers the Republicans are also vulnerable in their fair share of races. Democrat Robin Carnahan continues to hold a stable lead over Republican opponent Roy Blunt who FiveThirtyEight claims is “the wrong kind of candidate for this [election] cycle.” In Ohio Rob Portman holds a modest lead over two Democratic candidates in a state that has drifted away from President Obama and Democrats over the past year. Still Nate Silver sees a tight race, as Portman will have to battle his critics and rid the perception of his ties to Bush-era policies.

If Libertarian Rand Paul beats moderate Republican Trey Grayson for the nomination in Kentucky indicators suggest a tight race in a state where Libertarian talking points are not as well received as in other parts of the country. The open seat vacated by retiring Senator and former Phillies Hall of Fame pitcher Jim Bunning should be hotly contested throughout the campaign season. The race in New Hampshire meanwhile will also be viewed with much anticipation as the open seat in a bellwether state could go a long way in dictating the overall national trend this November.

Other races where polling is competitive are in the states of Illinois, North Carolina, North Dakota and Louisiana where Republicans appear just as vulnerable as Democrats. There seems to be more stability elsewhere in many of the 36 or more seats that will be open in 2010. What makes the upcoming election all the more fascinating as an indicator of national trends are the 36-races up for election split in half with exactly eighteen currently held by Democrats and the GOP each.

Other notable publications in addition to FiveThirtyEight tracking these races include Larry J. Sabato’s Chrystal Ball, Cook Political Report, CQ Politics, the Rothenberg Political Report, Swing State Project and Campaign Diaries. Using the six aforementioned sources as a guide there are seven states (HI, IN, MD, NY, OR, VT, WA) where the Democrats are considered safe winners in 2010 and nine (AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, OK, SC, SD, UT) where the Republican Party is overwhelmingly poised for victory.

New York and California are likely for the Democrats this fall with Florida, Iowa and Georgia fitting that same description for the GOP. Fifteen other states appear to lean slightly one way or to the other or are considered completely up for grabs. The Democrats currently enjoy a twenty-seat advantage in the U.S. Senate after two caucusing independents are taken into consideration. With at least 36-races on the table for 2010 could the Republican Party be looking for that magic number 24?

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / HARRY HAMBURG

Poll: Specter and Toomey tied in Senate race, Corbett leads for Governor, medical marijuana favored

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Arlen Specter has opened a considerable lead over Joe Sestak in their race for the Democratic nomination for Senate. The long-time Senator Specter is also in a dead-head with Republican Pat Toomey according to two new state polls released by Quinnipiac University.

Up nine-points from a poll in early-October Specter now draws 53% of the Democratic vote for Senate with Joe Sestak falling five-points to just 30%. In a potential general election match up the consistently close race being reported by Quinnipiac is now at a dead-heat. Specter and Toomey both draw 44% support from Pennsylvania voters. Although he struggles against Specter in his hope to wrestle away the Democratic Party nomination Joe Sestak meanwhile remains competitive with Pat Toomey. Currently the Seventh District Congressman trails by a margin of just 40-35%.

Arlen Specter continues to reap the benefits of strong name recognition with Pennsylvania voters. Whereas 70% of voters either have not heard or do not know enough about Joe Sestak and 55% remain in the dark regarding Pat Toomey just nine-percent have no opinion of Senator Specter. Currently Specter enjoys a narrow plurality of job approval (47%) from Pennsylvanians. Only 43% however have a favorable opinion of him against 45% holding an unfavorable view and Quinnipiac finds that just 38% of voters think Specter deserves to be reelected.

In the race for Governor Dan Onorato is the leading candidate in a scattered and utterly wide open field of Democrats seeking the party nomination in 2010. Onorato is the only candidate who pulls in double-digit support (14%), with Joe Hoeffel (8%), Jack Wagner (7%), Chris Doherty (6%) and Tom Knox (5%) lingering behind. 59% of Pennsylvania voters are undecided of their support for any candidate at this time making early polling on the race fairly irrelevant on the Democratic side. Marijuana

As for the Republican Party a 47% plurality have too not made up their mind on whom to support. That said state Attorney General Tom Corbett continues to garner front-runner status over Jim Gerlach by a current margin of 38-12%. Corbett’s lead in a hypothetical general election over the top-three Democratic hopefuls is more notable. He holds a 45-30% over Dan Onorato, 43-33% on Jack Wagner and out distances Joe Hoeffel by a 46-30%. Corbett’s strength is particularly noticeable with independent voters and those living in the more rural areas of Pennsylvania.

In other polling Governor Ed Rendell sits with a 43% job approval rating against 49% who disapprove. Although still in the negatives these figures are an improvement from the 39-53% margin he endured in July and better than the 39-59% split being reported by Rasmussen. The Pennsylvania state legislature meanwhile has bottomed out again with just a quarter (25%) of voters approving of their job performance and 64% disapproving – their worst totals to date. President Obama continues to struggle in the Keystone State meanwhile. For the second consecutive poll just 49% of Pennsylvania voters approve of his job performance. Obama’s negatives are also nearly as high now currently standing at 45%.

As part of Quinnipiac’s recent survey the issue of medical marijuana has also been polled on. 59% of voters approve of a proposal currently in the state legislature that would allow doctors to prescribe marijuana for medical usage – just 35% think it to be a bad idea. Democrats (67%) and independents (61%) are most in support of the idea but even a 49% plurality of Pennsylvania Republicans think the proposal is a good idea.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / CAROLYN KASTER

Poll: Toomey continues to lead Specter, jumps ahead of Sestak in Pennsylvania Senate race

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After bouncing back in October polling Arlen Specter continues to trail Republican challenger Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania’s 2010 Senate race. Toomey meanwhile has received something of an autumn bounce in his hypothetical match up against Philadelphia-area Congressman Joe Sestak.

Rasmussen Reports indicates that Pat Toomey leads Specter 46-42%, a virtually identical margin to his 45-40% lead recorded two months ago. Prior to that Toomey led by as much as twelve-points (48-36%) in August while Specter was embroiled in town hall meetings and protests.

The bigger news is the sudden the spike for Toomey against Joe Sestak. In October Rasmussen had the race at a virtual dead-heat with Sestak holding a statistically insignificant 38-37% advantage. Two-months later it is now Toomey that has jumped out in front by a 44-38% margin. Eighteen-percent of Pennsylvania voters continue to favor either another candidate for Senate or remain uncertain of their preference.

Congressman Sestak’s struggles have not been with Pat Toomey alone since October. He is also losing some ground to Specter in their imminent battle for the Democratic Party nomination. Specter has received cautious welcome by Pennsylvanian Democrats since his party switch in April. That defection was no doubt fueled as much by his 21-point hole to Toomey in polls for a Republican primary challenge as it was a result of his politically moderate policies. Still Specter has jumped out to a thirteen-point lead over Sestak for the party nomination after that lead had been reduced to 46-42% in October. Specter continues to score with women in Pennsylvania to the tune of a twenty-point lead over Sestak. The two candidates split the male vote while Specter leads amongst older voters and Sestak secures an advantage among younger Pennsylvanians.

Name recognition is a huge advantage for Arlen Specter as just six-percent of Pennsylvania voters claim to have no opinion of the five-term Senator. The problem for Specter is that many more view him unfavorably (35%) than favorably (16%). This in spite of his long tenure, moderate policies in a politically moderate state, courageous battle with Hodgkin’s lymphoma and being named as one of America’s ten best Senators by Time Magazine as recently as 2006.

Joe Sestak has seen his unfavorable numbers rise as his name recognition increases. The Seventh District Congressman is almost evenly split 11-12% among those voters holding a very favorable and very unfavorable opinion. Rasmussen also points out that Democratic Governor Ed Rendell does not offer much assistance to each of the party hopefuls in the upcoming Senate race. Just 39% of Pennsylvanians approve of Rendell’s job performance against 59% who currently disapprove. Pat Toomey has no such problem on the Republican side and fairs a bit better accordingly. He currently enjoys a 15-9% favorable to unfavorable split.

Shifting to a national perspective the number of Pennsylvanians who approve of the President’s job performance has fallen yet lies within the range of most nationwide polling. Obama is at a nearly even 50-48% split between his approval and disapproval ratings in the Keystone State. A plurality of Pennsylvanians (40-35%) oppose President Obama’s plan for Afghanistan according to Rasmussen. This in spite of their cross tabs that show a 51-33% margin in the number of those thinking the troop surge of 30,000 to be a good idea and the 46-41% in support of the President’s eighteen-month timetable for withdraw.

44% of Pennsylvanians currently favor the Democratic health care plan on the table in the Senate - 53% remain opposed. Voters are also narrowly divided on the issue of public option that has received much attention in recent days. 42% of the voting public supports the plan against 39% who are opposed. In the instance that a large number of employers will drop coverage and push their workers to adopt the government-run plan however support drops to less than a quarter (24%), with more than six in ten opposed (62%).

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / HARAZ N. GHANBARI

Poll: Pennsylvania Governor and Senate races heat up

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The major races in Pennsylvania may still be a year away but things are already heating up.

Arlen Specter trails Republican challenger Pat Toomey narrowly in his reelection bid for Senate and runs just ahead of fellow Democrat Joe Sestak. Sestak and Toomey meanwhile run neck and neck for the seat in a hypothetical 2010 match up. Tom Corbett is out to a huge early lead in the Republican Gubernatorial primary meanwhile. On the other side “not sure” is the most common response leading a field of Democrats running for Governor.

This information come to us compliments of some just released polling from Rasmussen Reports tracking the preference of voters in Pennsylvania.

Republican Pat Toomey leads Senator Arlen Specter 45-40%. That’s down from a twelve-point advantage in August during the height of Specter’s town hall meetings where he often received highly publicized and harsh treatment from attendees. The Senator’s favorability is up slightly from August as well but still mired in the negatives. Currently 46% of Pennsylvanians have a favorable view of Specter while 52% hold an unfavorable view. Back in April a Rasmussen poll showed Senator trailing Pat Toomey by twenty-one percentage points in his quest to be renominated as a Republican. Many suggest his lagging poll numbers at that point contributed heavily to his party switch. Sure enough Specter runs stronger against Toomey as a Democrat than he does as a Republican.

A tight race for Senate could have been predicted but a legitimate party challenge was something Arlen Specter was hoping to avoid. However, Seventh District Congressman Joe Sestak is picking up steam in his bid to take away the Democratic nomination from the long time Senator Specter. Sestak now trails by just four-points, 46-42%. That is a considerable improvement from Rasmussen polls in August that showed Specter with a thirteen-point lead. Sestak is gaining on Specter while remaining largely unknown to voters. Just 14% hold a very favorable view of the Congressman and 8% hold a very unfavorable view against 30% of voters who don’t know enough about Sestak to offer an opinion.

Perhaps Pennsylvania Democrats are beginning to warm to Sestak’s appeal as a general election candidate. Positioning himself as the only “real Democrat” in the race Sestak is actually now leading Pat Toomey in the hypothetical race for next year’s Senate by a single point, 38-37%. An additional 19% remain unsure but expect that number to shrink as voters learn more about both candidates.

Moving our attention to the race for Governor a scattered field of Democrats compete against one another while the Republicans have a clear favorite. A whopping 37% of Democratic Primary voters are not sure who they plan to support in 2010. Rasmussen’s sample size is quite low polling just 469-likely voters but the results point to a cluttered field of at least five candidates; Dan Onorato (19%), Jack Wagner (14%), Joe Hoeffel (11%), Chris Doherty (6%) and Tom Knox (4%). When combined these five candidates attract only 54% of current voter preference, while one in ten Pennsylvania Democrats also prefer some other candidate.

There is far more clarity on the Republican side of the coin. State Attorney General Tom Corbett continues to hold a vast lead over Congressman Jim Gerlach for the GOP nomination, 54-10%. A sizeable 30% of Republican voters aren’t sure of their preference but Corbett’s lead even in these early stages may prove difficult for Gerlach to overcome. On the personal front 28% of Pennsylvania Republicans hold a very favorable view of Corbett against just 1% who do not. Gerlach meanwhile suffers from lack of name recognition with 37% of primary voters uncertain of what they think about the candidate against 21% who do not hold a strong opinion of Corbett.