READ FULL STORY HEREWith just over a week remaining before droves of Pennsylvanians will vote in their highly publicized Democratic primary a just released survey from Rasmussen Reports indicates some major new developments.
According to the poll 7th District Congressman Joe Sestak has now caught and passed longtime Senator Arlen Specter in their race for the Democratic nomination. As of this morning “likely” voters as tracked by Rasmussen indicate a lead for the second-term congressman at 47-42%. With the election set to take place on Tuesday, May 18th, 8% of Pennsylvanian Democrats remain undecided and another 3% support a different candidate from their party.
Other national polls have indicated the race for Specter’s Senate seat has tightened in recent weeks but this is the first major poll to show an outright lead for Sestak. In March Specter’s lead was a seemingly comfortable 48-37%. In April however an aggressive ad campaign by Sestak-camp began to whittle away the lead and by mid-month the Senator’s advantage was down to a virtual 44-42% tossup. A month later Sestak’s sudden advantage has perhaps been bolstered by what many viewers considered a strong televised debate performance as well as the anti-incumbent sentiment permeating through the political landscape of 2010.
It will be interesting to see if other pollsters reflect these new findings as the Rasmussen survey results are based off of a relatively small sample of just 408-likely Democratic voters. A much larger poll of 930-likely voters conducted by Quinnipiac University just last week showed Specter retaining an shrinking but respectable 47-39% lead over his Democratic rival.
With the airwaves of the Philadelphia region and beyond now filled by attack ads coming from both sides the public sentiment seems to be favoring Sestak’s approach. Whereas 35% of voters consider Arlen Specter’s campaign to be taking on a negative tone just 11% accuse of Sestak of the same. 39% meanwhile see Sestak as running a mostly positive advertising and speaking campaign with just 22% of the opinion that Senator Specter is engaging in that as well.
The small disparity between each candidate’s favorable and unfavorable ratings eludes to the likelihood that Pennsylvania Democrats are basing their support on campaign tone or wedge issues. Arlen Specter is viewed favorably by 67% of Democratic voters in the Keystone State with 31% viewing him unfavorably. Joe Sestak meanwhile has a 63-22% favorable to unfavorable split with 14% of Democrats still not knowing enough about the congressman to cast any sort of opinion.
Whichever candidate wins the testy May 18th primary they’ll likely have their hands full against Republican challenger Pat Toomey. Rasmussen polling of less than a month ago showed Toomey with a 50-40% advantage over Senator Specter and a 47-36% lead over Congressman Sestak. If the volatile race for Senate on the Democratic side of serves as any sort of general election preview however a Toomey match up against either nominee could be a vicious and narrow race to the finish line.
Other national polls have indicated the race for Specter’s Senate seat has tightened in recent weeks but this is the first major poll to show an outright lead for Sestak. In March Specter’s lead was a seemingly comfortable 48-37%. In April however an aggressive ad campaign by Sestak-camp began to whittle away the lead and by mid-month the Senator’s advantage was down to a virtual 44-42% tossup. A month later Sestak’s sudden advantage has perhaps been bolstered by what many viewers considered a strong televised debate performance as well as the anti-incumbent sentiment permeating through the political landscape of 2010.
It will be interesting to see if other pollsters reflect these new findings as the Rasmussen survey results are based off of a relatively small sample of just 408-likely Democratic voters. A much larger poll of 930-likely voters conducted by Quinnipiac University just last week showed Specter retaining an shrinking but respectable 47-39% lead over his Democratic rival.
With the airwaves of the Philadelphia region and beyond now filled by attack ads coming from both sides the public sentiment seems to be favoring Sestak’s approach. Whereas 35% of voters consider Arlen Specter’s campaign to be taking on a negative tone just 11% accuse of Sestak of the same. 39% meanwhile see Sestak as running a mostly positive advertising and speaking campaign with just 22% of the opinion that Senator Specter is engaging in that as well.
The small disparity between each candidate’s favorable and unfavorable ratings eludes to the likelihood that Pennsylvania Democrats are basing their support on campaign tone or wedge issues. Arlen Specter is viewed favorably by 67% of Democratic voters in the Keystone State with 31% viewing him unfavorably. Joe Sestak meanwhile has a 63-22% favorable to unfavorable split with 14% of Democrats still not knowing enough about the congressman to cast any sort of opinion.
Whichever candidate wins the testy May 18th primary they’ll likely have their hands full against Republican challenger Pat Toomey. Rasmussen polling of less than a month ago showed Toomey with a 50-40% advantage over Senator Specter and a 47-36% lead over Congressman Sestak. If the volatile race for Senate on the Democratic side of serves as any sort of general election preview however a Toomey match up against either nominee could be a vicious and narrow race to the finish line.
PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / RICK SCHULTZ
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