READ FULL STORY HEREFresh off his surprise victory over longtime Senator Arlen Specter in Tuesday’s Democratic primary Joe Sestak appears to be carrying some serious momentum into the general election campaign.
Rasmussen Reports has released the first poll of post-primary collected date and its good news for the 7th District Congressman turned Senate nominee. Sestak leads opponent Pat Toomey, the easy victor on the Republican side, by a margin of 46-42%. This is the first time Sestak has led Toomey since declaring his candidacy for the position last August. Twelve-percent of Pennsylvania voters remain uncertain of either major party candidate or prefer someone else completely.
While Sestak has enjoyed plenty of momentum over the past few weeks it will be interesting to see if the results of this poll represent a short-lived bounce or are part of a broader trend. Two weeks ago the Democrat ran neck and neck with Toomey and his overall numbers from May are a marked improvement from Rasmussen polling from February through April. During that span Sestak’s average deficit was by a 45-37% margin. His current four-point advantage comes days after an impressive showing in Pennsylvania’s May 18th Democratic primary. The second term congressman effectively ended the political career of state institution Arlen Specter by a 54-46% margin.
Pat Toomey was the runaway winner on the Republican side with 82% of the vote capturing the nomination without being seriously contested. Toomey continues to run ahead of Sestak with unaffiliated voters by a margin of 41-32%. Sestak meanwhile has received a substantial boost from his own party as the latest polling indicates he is now supported by 80% of Pennsylvania Democrats, up sixteen-points from before Tuesday’s primary. 20% of voters in the Keystone State now view Sestak “very” favorably against 13% who hold a very unfavorable opinion and 14% who are undecided. Toomey has a solid 21-10% split between those viewing him very favorably and unfavorably while 19% of voters don’t offer an opinion either way.
Many within the Democratic ranks are banking on a Sestak win in the fall to help stem the tide of a possible Republican insurgency. Political analyst Larry J. Sabato of the University of Virginia predicts substantial Democratic losses in the November election but not damaged badly enough to lose control of either the House or Senate. Currently his projections show the Republicans with a net gain of seven-seats in the Senate and 27-seats in the House of Representatives. He also rates the Senate race in Pennsylvania as a toss-up. Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com meanwhile believes Toomey and the Republicans have a 71% chance of victory in the Keystone State, but that assessment came before these recent poll findings from Rasmussen.
PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Michael Perez
Rasmussen Reports has released the first poll of post-primary collected date and its good news for the 7th District Congressman turned Senate nominee. Sestak leads opponent Pat Toomey, the easy victor on the Republican side, by a margin of 46-42%. This is the first time Sestak has led Toomey since declaring his candidacy for the position last August. Twelve-percent of Pennsylvania voters remain uncertain of either major party candidate or prefer someone else completely.
While Sestak has enjoyed plenty of momentum over the past few weeks it will be interesting to see if the results of this poll represent a short-lived bounce or are part of a broader trend. Two weeks ago the Democrat ran neck and neck with Toomey and his overall numbers from May are a marked improvement from Rasmussen polling from February through April. During that span Sestak’s average deficit was by a 45-37% margin. His current four-point advantage comes days after an impressive showing in Pennsylvania’s May 18th Democratic primary. The second term congressman effectively ended the political career of state institution Arlen Specter by a 54-46% margin.
Pat Toomey was the runaway winner on the Republican side with 82% of the vote capturing the nomination without being seriously contested. Toomey continues to run ahead of Sestak with unaffiliated voters by a margin of 41-32%. Sestak meanwhile has received a substantial boost from his own party as the latest polling indicates he is now supported by 80% of Pennsylvania Democrats, up sixteen-points from before Tuesday’s primary. 20% of voters in the Keystone State now view Sestak “very” favorably against 13% who hold a very unfavorable opinion and 14% who are undecided. Toomey has a solid 21-10% split between those viewing him very favorably and unfavorably while 19% of voters don’t offer an opinion either way.
Many within the Democratic ranks are banking on a Sestak win in the fall to help stem the tide of a possible Republican insurgency. Political analyst Larry J. Sabato of the University of Virginia predicts substantial Democratic losses in the November election but not damaged badly enough to lose control of either the House or Senate. Currently his projections show the Republicans with a net gain of seven-seats in the Senate and 27-seats in the House of Representatives. He also rates the Senate race in Pennsylvania as a toss-up. Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com meanwhile believes Toomey and the Republicans have a 71% chance of victory in the Keystone State, but that assessment came before these recent poll findings from Rasmussen.
PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Michael Perez
No comments:
Post a Comment