Poll: Toomey continues to hold modest lead over Sestak in Pennsylvania Senate race

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The dynamics of Pennsylvania’s Senate race have changed little over the past month. Republican Pat Toomey continues to lead Democrat Joe Sestak by a modest margin.

A just released poll from Rasmussen Reports shows the Toomey advantage currently at 45-39% with 11% undecided and another 6% supporting a different candidate. Those are nearly identical figures from last month that showed Toomey with a 45-38% lead after Specter had enjoyed a brief post-primary bounce in May.

Whichever candidate wins in November they’ll be replacing long time Republican turned Democratic Senator Arlen Specter who was convincingly defeated by Sestak in his party’s primary in May. In spite of the highly publicized campaign Democrats appear to offer Sestak lukewarm support in the wake of his surprising victory. Just 70% of Pennsylvania Democrats are shown to support Sestak against 81% of Republicans who plan to vote for Toomey in the fall. The GOP’s nominee also holds a nine-point advantage amongst those likely voters unaffiliated with either major party.

As voters get to know each candidate better their opinions have soured some. Pat Toomey is currently view very favorably by 17% of Pennsylvanians with 13% holding a very unfavorable opinion. Joe Sestak meanwhile is evenly split at 16-16% amongst those with strong opinions. That represents a modest drop in support for both candidates since last month although it has had little to no effect on the overall picture of the race.

In other areas of interest Rasmussen Reports pegs President Obama’s approval rating in Pennsylvania at 47%. He has registered consistently just below the 50% threshold for several months now, a far cry from his 2008 success in the Keystone State when 55% of voters punched their ticket for Obama. The President’s stance on the immigration debate is not helping his numbers either. With the administration set to file a lawsuit against Arizona over its tough new immigration laws by a 55-31% margin a majority of Pennsylvania voters oppose the legal challenge.

Similarly most Pennsylvanians (54%) favor the repeal of the President’s sweeping health care reform bill passed last fall. 42% oppose any sort of repeal keeping these numbers roughly in line with what Rasmussen has tracked nationally, although somewhat at odds with other pollsters.

Poll: Republican candidates lead Democratic rivals in two key races in Pennsylvania

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As a number of states prepare to vote in what could be crucial primaries today two news surveys from Rasmussen Reports show Republicans fairing quite well in Pennsylvania.

In the race for Senate Republican Pat Toomey is now shown as leading recently nominated Democrat Joe Sestak 45-38%. This is a turnaround from polling two-weeks ago that showed Sestak carrying a modest four-point lead bolstered by his primary defeat of longtime Senator Arlen Specter. The post-victory bounce has appeared to dissipate rather quickly for the sitting congressman however and Toomey, who led both would-be Democrats for most of the year, is back out in front.

The good news for Sestak comes in the 19% of undecided Democratic voters. Only 7% of Republicans can’t choose between Toomey, Sestak or a third-party candidate at this juncture. Overall 12% of Pennsylvanians are uncertain of any candidate perhaps affording Sestak the opportunity to both tie up some loose ends within his own party and court those crucial undecideds.

Health care remains a divisive issue in Pennsylvania as it does nationally. 56% of Keystone State voters support the repeal of health care reform legislation against 38% who oppose such a measure. Eight out of ten (80%) of those electing to keep the status quo not surprisingly favor Sestak and a virtually identical percentage (81%) of those pushing for its retraction side with Toomey. Overall Sestak splits the opinion of voters with strong feelings about him. 16% of Pennsylvania voters hold a very favorable view of the congressman against 16% who view him very unfavorably. Pat Toomey scores a bit better to the tune of a 21-13% very favorable to very unfavorable margin.

In the race for Governor Republican State Attorney General Tom Corbett leads Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato by sixteen-points. The 49-33% lead for Corbett also includes 13% of Pennsylvania voters who aren’t sure of a candidate preference and 5% who prefer someone else besides the two front runners. The dynamics of this race remain relatively unchanged from last month when Rasmussen polling showed Corbett with a thirteen-point lead and drawing 49% support overall.

Corbett’s reputation as a popular politician in the Keystone State is also confirmed by the number of those holding strong opinions of him. 27% of voters view him very favorably against just 11% who see him very unfavorably. Onorato meanwhile is divided by a far more modest margin of 14-10%.

Both men look to succeed sitting two-term Governor and former Philadelphia Mayor Ed Rendell who has been struggling with subpar approval ratings for over a year. Currently Rendell is approved of by 44% of Pennsylvanians. President Obama meanwhile scores a 48% approval rating in the state, a percentage more or less in line with his current standing nationally.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Keith Srakocic

Poll: Sestak leads Toomey 46-42% in first major survey since Tuesday primaries

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Fresh off his surprise victory over longtime Senator Arlen Specter in Tuesday’s Democratic primary Joe Sestak appears to be carrying some serious momentum into the general election campaign.

Rasmussen Reports has released the first poll of post-primary collected date and its good news for the 7th District Congressman turned Senate nominee. Sestak leads opponent Pat Toomey, the easy victor on the Republican side, by a margin of 46-42%. This is the first time Sestak has led Toomey since declaring his candidacy for the position last August. Twelve-percent of Pennsylvania voters remain uncertain of either major party candidate or prefer someone else completely.

While Sestak has enjoyed plenty of momentum over the past few weeks it will be interesting to see if the results of this poll represent a short-lived bounce or are part of a broader trend. Two weeks ago the Democrat ran neck and neck with Toomey and his overall numbers from May are a marked improvement from Rasmussen polling from February through April. During that span Sestak’s average deficit was by a 45-37% margin. His current four-point advantage comes days after an impressive showing in Pennsylvania’s May 18th Democratic primary. The second term congressman effectively ended the political career of state institution Arlen Specter by a 54-46% margin.

Pat Toomey was the runaway winner on the Republican side with 82% of the vote capturing the nomination without being seriously contested. Toomey continues to run ahead of Sestak with unaffiliated voters by a margin of 41-32%. Sestak meanwhile has received a substantial boost from his own party as the latest polling indicates he is now supported by 80% of Pennsylvania Democrats, up sixteen-points from before Tuesday’s primary. 20% of voters in the Keystone State now view Sestak “very” favorably against 13% who hold a very unfavorable opinion and 14% who are undecided. Toomey has a solid 21-10% split between those viewing him very favorably and unfavorably while 19% of voters don’t offer an opinion either way.

Many within the Democratic ranks are banking on a Sestak win in the fall to help stem the tide of a possible Republican insurgency. Political analyst Larry J. Sabato of the University of Virginia predicts substantial Democratic losses in the November election but not damaged badly enough to lose control of either the House or Senate. Currently his projections show the Republicans with a net gain of seven-seats in the Senate and 27-seats in the House of Representatives. He also rates the Senate race in Pennsylvania as a toss-up. Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com meanwhile believes Toomey and the Republicans have a 71% chance of victory in the Keystone State, but that assessment came before these recent poll findings from Rasmussen.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Michael Perez

Poll: Specter and Sestak race 'too close to call' as we head to Election Day

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It’s down to the wire in the Keystone State and polls show a virtual dead heat.

Tomorrow, May 18th, Democrats across Pennsylvania will cast their vote for which candidate will represent their party against Republican Pat Toomey in November. Long time Senator and recently minted Democrat Arlen Specter was seen as the front runner in the race against second term Congressman Joe Sestak. In recent weeks however as a flurry of campaign ads and issues raised from both sides have filled the airwaves the battle for Specter’s long held Senate seat has heated up.

Suggesting the race is still at a deadlock might actually be encouraging words to Arlen Specter supporters. After all some reputable new polling in recent days shows the Sestak insurgency has moved in front.


Last week a survey from Rasmussen Reports showed, that for the first time, Sestak had moved ahead of Specter by a margin of 47-42% in their primary showdown. A new survey conducted by Franklin & Marshall in affiliation with the Philadelphia Daily News meanwhile places Sestak as the narrow front runner. With a lead of 38-36% in that poll over a quarter of voters have yet to voice their preference for either candidate. Released this morning a new poll from Quinnipiac meanwhile shows a virtually even race. The poll has Sestak inching in front by a margin of 42-41%. Still a relatively high number of Democratic voters (16%) remain undecided of either candidate whereas a quarter of those supporting either suggest they could change their decision prior to heading into the voting booth on Tuesday.

"The Sestak-Specter race is a dead heat and could go either way. Sen. Arlen
Specter has the party organization behind him, which should help with turnout.
But Congressman Joe Sestak could benefit from the relatively large group of
undecided voters. Generally, incumbents don't do all that well with undecideds,
who are more likely to vote for the challenger or not vote." -- Peter A. Brown,
assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute

With a large number of Pennsylvanians from all parties believing Arlen Specter has worn out his welcome as a representative in the U.S. Senate and the general anti-incumbent tone of this election cycle it’s easy to see where the veteran senator’s difficulties lie. But Democrats in the Keystone State also seem to be keeping watchful out for which candidate matches up better with Pat Toomey, the presumptive Republican nominee, in the fall.

Released last Monday a Rasmussen poll finds Joe Sestak as considerably more likely to keep the senate seat from falling into Republican hands. In their still hypothetical match up Sestak trails Toomey by just two-points, 42-40%. Arlen Specter meanwhile is currently outdistanced by the Republican candidate to the tune of a twelve-point, 50-38% margin. The Franklin & Marshall survey found a more level playing field with Toomey ahead of Sestak 29-28% and leading Specter by a statistically insignificant 35-33% margin.

That said this election appears to be referendum on the current political environment nationally and on Senator Specter’s declining popularity at home. Just 32% of Pennsylvanians rated Specter’s job performance as “good” or “excellent” against 33% who labeled it only “fair” and an additional 29% who rate it “poor”. With such large blocks of voters undecided only a day out from going to the polls the Specter campaign still appears to have life. It is however hard to ignore the momentum that has been pointing in the direction of his challenger for several weeks now. Don’t count Arlen out but expect a Sestak victory and tight race between he and Toomey that will stretch across the next five and half months.

Poll: Sestak now leads Specter 47-42% in Pennsylvania Senate race

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With just over a week remaining before droves of Pennsylvanians will vote in their highly publicized Democratic primary a just released survey from Rasmussen Reports indicates some major new developments.

According to the poll 7th District Congressman Joe Sestak has now caught and passed longtime Senator Arlen Specter in their race for the Democratic nomination. As of this morning “likely” voters as tracked by Rasmussen indicate a lead for the second-term congressman at 47-42%. With the election set to take place on Tuesday, May 18th, 8% of Pennsylvanian Democrats remain undecided and another 3% support a different candidate from their party.

Other national polls have indicated the race for Specter’s Senate seat has tightened in recent weeks but this is the first major poll to show an outright lead for Sestak. In March Specter’s lead was a seemingly comfortable 48-37%. In April however an aggressive ad campaign by Sestak-camp began to whittle away the lead and by mid-month the Senator’s advantage was down to a virtual 44-42% tossup. A month later Sestak’s sudden advantage has perhaps been bolstered by what many viewers considered a strong televised debate performance as well as the anti-incumbent sentiment permeating through the political landscape of 2010.

It will be interesting to see if other pollsters reflect these new findings as the Rasmussen survey results are based off of a relatively small sample of just 408-likely Democratic voters. A much larger poll of 930-likely voters conducted by Quinnipiac University just last week showed Specter retaining an shrinking but respectable 47-39% lead over his Democratic rival.

With the airwaves of the Philadelphia region and beyond now filled by attack ads coming from both sides the public sentiment seems to be favoring Sestak’s approach. Whereas 35% of voters consider Arlen Specter’s campaign to be taking on a negative tone just 11% accuse of Sestak of the same. 39% meanwhile see Sestak as running a mostly positive advertising and speaking campaign with just 22% of the opinion that Senator Specter is engaging in that as well.

The small disparity between each candidate’s favorable and unfavorable ratings eludes to the likelihood that Pennsylvania Democrats are basing their support on campaign tone or wedge issues. Arlen Specter is viewed favorably by 67% of Democratic voters in the Keystone State with 31% viewing him unfavorably. Joe Sestak meanwhile has a 63-22% favorable to unfavorable split with 14% of Democrats still not knowing enough about the congressman to cast any sort of opinion.

Whichever candidate wins the testy May 18th primary they’ll likely have their hands full against Republican challenger Pat Toomey. Rasmussen polling of less than a month ago showed Toomey with a 50-40% advantage over Senator Specter and a 47-36% lead over Congressman Sestak. If the volatile race for Senate on the Democratic side of serves as any sort of general election preview however a Toomey match up against either nominee could be a vicious and narrow race to the finish line.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / RICK SCHULTZ

Poll: Specter and Sestak race now a dead heat, both Senate hopefuls trail Republican Toomey

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Just over a month until Pennsylvania’s Democratic Primary and Rasmussen Reports has dropped something of a bombshell on Arlen Specter’s campaign to retain his Senate seat.

Two new polls indicate that Senator Specter has fallen to his lowest level of support yet among Democrats and he continues to lag well behind with the general electorate. In his battle for the party nomination he now leads 7th District Congressman by a mere two-percent while trailing Republican Pat Toomey by ten-points.

Since one in ten Pennsylvania Democrats remain unsure of their preference for either Specter or Sestak the incumbent Senator’s 44-42% lead is now being depicted as a dead heat. Although he has been losing ground since the beginning of the year these new developments have to come as something of a surprise for Specter. Last month he enjoyed a 48-37% lead over Sestak and registered as high as 53% support as of January.

Arlen Specter still captures the strong support of quarter of Pennsylvania Democrats (25%) but 15% view him “very” unfavorably. The lesser known Sestak does better with those holding strong feelings. He registered a 17% very favorable against just a 4% very unfavorable rating according to Rasmussen. The health care issue is a divisive one amongst Democrats in the Keystone State just as it is for virtually all voters nationally. 60% of Democrats in Pennsylvania believe the health care bill passed last month to be a good thing for the country with 29% thinking it will have a negative impact. With 54% support Specter does better with those holding positive views of the reform bill. Sestak meanwhile does considerably better (59%) with those Democrats who oppose the bill meanwhile.

Regardless of who comes out on top of this heated primary battle they will face an uphill climb against Republican Pat Toomey. Running with a strong wind at his back during this favorable election cycle for the GOP, Toomey has jumped out to a 50-40% lead over Specter and an equally solid 47-36% advantage on Sestak. In the Toomey versus Specter matchup only 6% of voters are uncertain of whether they’d support either candidate while 4% suggest they’ll vote for someone else. Those figures grow to 12% and 5% respectively when looking at the potential matchup of Toomey against Sestak.

Most Pennsylvanians (53%) are against the recently passed health care bill through congress and six in ten voters (60%) would like to see it repealed. Senator Specter is being tied to the bill having voted for it and expressing vocal public support for its passage during a highly publicized series of town hall meetings last August. 84% of those favoring repeal not surprisingly support Pat Toomey’s campaign whereas 82% of the 37% minority of those Pennsylvanians against repeal side with Specter.

Senator Specter’s support bottomed out at around 36% during the town hall meeting debates last year. Although he has campaigned heavily in the months since his numbers have not increased past the 42% mark. Congressman Sestak meanwhile has been wedged between 35% and 38% support in Rasmussen surveys dating back to last October. Toomey leads either candidate by a wide margin among men, independents and narrowly among women. The Republican is viewed very favorably by 18% of the electorate in Pennsylvania with 10% holding a very unfavorable view. More than twice as many voters (33%) have a strongly unfavorable than favorable opinion (16%) of Arlen Specter. Joe Sestak is now in the negatives as well earning a very favorable opinion from 10% of Pennsylvanians against 12% who view him very unfavorably.

The narrow range of support for either Democratic potential corresponding to a consistent lead for Toomey gives the impression of a race that is stabilizing. This could make things difficult for a marked incumbent like Arlen Specter or a political upstart like Joe Sestak to change the minds of a large enough number of voters for victory in the fall.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / MATT ROURKE

Poll: Toomey still leads in Pennsylvania Senate race with Specter ahead of Sestak

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No major shakeups in the race for Arlen Specter’s Senate seat in Pennsylvania. The latest round of surveys from Rasmussen Reports indicate Republican Pat Toomey holding a solid lead over Specter and a modest advantage over Joe Sestak all the while Specter continues to lead his challenger for the upcoming Democratic Primary.

Toomey’s 49-40% lead over Arlen Specter is identical to last month’s Rasmussen poll that also showed a nine-point advantage. Since then both candidates have picked up a couple of points in support from previously undecided voters but with Toomey’s steady lead, a shrinking number of uncommitted voters to attract and an election calendar growing shorter by the day the news has to be welcoming to the Republican challenger.

Upstart congressman Joe Sestak runs better against Toomey for a second-straight month but continues to trail Specter in their upcoming May 18th primary for the Democratic nomination. Toomey is in front of Sestak 42-37% and a considerable number of Pennsylvania voters (15%) remain undecided on either candidate. Unfortunately for Sestak he hasn’t been able to take a sizeable chunk out of the longtime Senator Specter’s lead within the party although his deficit of eleven-percentage points is slightly smaller than the 13% hole he was in last month.

Most view the race for Senate in Pennsylvania as a referendum on Arlen Specter’s personal popularity, or lack thereof, following a party switch last year and his continued support for President Obama’s controversial health care plan. Specter is viewed very unfavorably by far more voters (34%) than the number who view him very favorably (14%). Meanwhile support for the President’s health care plan is modestly lower in the Keystone State than it is nationally. 41% in Pennsylvania favor the plan but 58% are opposed. The latest Rasmussen tracking on the topic nationally shows Americans divided by a margin of 43-53%.

Joe Sestak earns the strong support of one in ten Pennsylvania voters (10%) and is strongly rejected by 11%. Pat Toomey not surprisingly is the most popular of all candidates with a 17% very favorable and an 11% very unfavorable rating.

While viewed as battleground state for many elections both locally and nationally Pennsylvania appears to have moved to the political left in recent years. A Republican presidential candidate has not carried the state since 1988 and recent congressional and gubernatorial elections have favored Democratic candidates considerably. Barack Obama won Pennsylvania by 10.5% over John McCain in 2008 and an Ed Rendell captured reelection for Governor by nearly twenty-points over Republican Lynn Swann in 2006. That said the President’s job approval, mirroring national totals, is 48% among voters in the Keystone State with 51% disapproving. Governor Rendell meanwhile is also modestly unpopular to the tune of a 47-52% approval to disapproval rating.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / CAROLYN KASTER

Poll: Toomey widens lead over Democratic challengers, Specter well ahead of Sestak

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On the same day Philadelphia businessman Tom Knox drops out of the race for Pennsylvania Governor Pat Toomey expands his lead on two other Democratic hopefuls for high office.

In the race for Senate Republican Toomey has increased his lead from four points over Arlen Specter and six over Congressman Joe Sestak to advantages of nine and eight points respectively. The survey from Rasmussen Reports also indicates that prior to switching parties earlier last year Senator Specter was trailing by over twenty-points to Toomey. The political environment has continued to sour for Democrats in the months since and the party is currently reeling from a damaging special-election Senate defeat in Massachusetts on Tuesday.

Specter’s troubles are more with his tarnished reputation outside his current party than with Democrats. Just 16% view him favorably against a third of the Pennsylvania electorate (33%) who hold an unfavorable view. Joe Sestak who is currently running a point better against the Republican challenger than Specter is running far behind the veteran Senator in their primary battle, 53-32%. Sestak also has failed to obtain strong levels of support or recognition amongst voters. His very favorable numbers top out at eight-percent against eleven-percent who view him very unfavorably in the Keystone State, meaning four in five voters have either lukewarm feelings or still do not know enough about the Seventh District Congressman.

Toomey meanwhile also struggles from strong name recognition but does attract slightly more favorable support (12%) than unfavorable (10%). Larry J. Sabato’s is a contributor to Rasmussen. His famous “Chrystal Ball” that almost perfectly predicted the 2006 midterms election in the both the House and Senate places the race in Pennsylvania in the toss-up category. He does suggest however that the advantage leans toward Toomey. In fact if the midterm elections were held today the Democrat’s majority in the U.S. Senate would drop to 52-seats according to Sabato’s polling.

Another notable pollster, Nate Silver from Fivethirtyeight.com proposes a slightly rosier outlook for Democrats in November as he gives the party in power a good chance of securing at least 53 or 54 Senate seats. In Pennsylvania however his current assessment shows the Senate seat leaning toward Pat Toomey and gives the Republican a 72% chance of victory. In total of the 36 races statistically analyzed by Silver at Fivethirtyeight twenty-four show Republicans with a lead of at least three-percentage points to just eleven where the Democrats are out in front – polls show Illinois deadlocked.

Back to Pennsylvania politics, 57% oppose the healthcare reform bill now in peril and better than two-thirds (67%) are concerned over the possibility of another terrorist attack this year. Like most of the country Pennsylvanians are down on the economy and pessimistic about its rebound in the near future. Just five-percent rate it as good or excellent against 51% who say it is poor. Furthermore 31% think it's getting better but 42% claim it is getting worse.

Tom Knox stepping out of the race for Governor and offering up his support to rival Dan Onorato was perhaps equal parts a desperate and selfless act. With the three other candidates in the Democratic primary quickly dismissing the idea of doing the same, the dichotomy helps sum up the current political landscape for Democrats; United on certain fronts, fractured in others and heading into an autumn election season with plenty of unease and uncertainty.

AP PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS / MATT ROURKE

Poll: Toomey continues to lead Specter, jumps ahead of Sestak in Pennsylvania Senate race

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After bouncing back in October polling Arlen Specter continues to trail Republican challenger Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania’s 2010 Senate race. Toomey meanwhile has received something of an autumn bounce in his hypothetical match up against Philadelphia-area Congressman Joe Sestak.

Rasmussen Reports indicates that Pat Toomey leads Specter 46-42%, a virtually identical margin to his 45-40% lead recorded two months ago. Prior to that Toomey led by as much as twelve-points (48-36%) in August while Specter was embroiled in town hall meetings and protests.

The bigger news is the sudden the spike for Toomey against Joe Sestak. In October Rasmussen had the race at a virtual dead-heat with Sestak holding a statistically insignificant 38-37% advantage. Two-months later it is now Toomey that has jumped out in front by a 44-38% margin. Eighteen-percent of Pennsylvania voters continue to favor either another candidate for Senate or remain uncertain of their preference.

Congressman Sestak’s struggles have not been with Pat Toomey alone since October. He is also losing some ground to Specter in their imminent battle for the Democratic Party nomination. Specter has received cautious welcome by Pennsylvanian Democrats since his party switch in April. That defection was no doubt fueled as much by his 21-point hole to Toomey in polls for a Republican primary challenge as it was a result of his politically moderate policies. Still Specter has jumped out to a thirteen-point lead over Sestak for the party nomination after that lead had been reduced to 46-42% in October. Specter continues to score with women in Pennsylvania to the tune of a twenty-point lead over Sestak. The two candidates split the male vote while Specter leads amongst older voters and Sestak secures an advantage among younger Pennsylvanians.

Name recognition is a huge advantage for Arlen Specter as just six-percent of Pennsylvania voters claim to have no opinion of the five-term Senator. The problem for Specter is that many more view him unfavorably (35%) than favorably (16%). This in spite of his long tenure, moderate policies in a politically moderate state, courageous battle with Hodgkin’s lymphoma and being named as one of America’s ten best Senators by Time Magazine as recently as 2006.

Joe Sestak has seen his unfavorable numbers rise as his name recognition increases. The Seventh District Congressman is almost evenly split 11-12% among those voters holding a very favorable and very unfavorable opinion. Rasmussen also points out that Democratic Governor Ed Rendell does not offer much assistance to each of the party hopefuls in the upcoming Senate race. Just 39% of Pennsylvanians approve of Rendell’s job performance against 59% who currently disapprove. Pat Toomey has no such problem on the Republican side and fairs a bit better accordingly. He currently enjoys a 15-9% favorable to unfavorable split.

Shifting to a national perspective the number of Pennsylvanians who approve of the President’s job performance has fallen yet lies within the range of most nationwide polling. Obama is at a nearly even 50-48% split between his approval and disapproval ratings in the Keystone State. A plurality of Pennsylvanians (40-35%) oppose President Obama’s plan for Afghanistan according to Rasmussen. This in spite of their cross tabs that show a 51-33% margin in the number of those thinking the troop surge of 30,000 to be a good idea and the 46-41% in support of the President’s eighteen-month timetable for withdraw.

44% of Pennsylvanians currently favor the Democratic health care plan on the table in the Senate - 53% remain opposed. Voters are also narrowly divided on the issue of public option that has received much attention in recent days. 42% of the voting public supports the plan against 39% who are opposed. In the instance that a large number of employers will drop coverage and push their workers to adopt the government-run plan however support drops to less than a quarter (24%), with more than six in ten opposed (62%).

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / HARAZ N. GHANBARI

Poll: Pennsylvania Governor and Senate races heat up

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The major races in Pennsylvania may still be a year away but things are already heating up.

Arlen Specter trails Republican challenger Pat Toomey narrowly in his reelection bid for Senate and runs just ahead of fellow Democrat Joe Sestak. Sestak and Toomey meanwhile run neck and neck for the seat in a hypothetical 2010 match up. Tom Corbett is out to a huge early lead in the Republican Gubernatorial primary meanwhile. On the other side “not sure” is the most common response leading a field of Democrats running for Governor.

This information come to us compliments of some just released polling from Rasmussen Reports tracking the preference of voters in Pennsylvania.

Republican Pat Toomey leads Senator Arlen Specter 45-40%. That’s down from a twelve-point advantage in August during the height of Specter’s town hall meetings where he often received highly publicized and harsh treatment from attendees. The Senator’s favorability is up slightly from August as well but still mired in the negatives. Currently 46% of Pennsylvanians have a favorable view of Specter while 52% hold an unfavorable view. Back in April a Rasmussen poll showed Senator trailing Pat Toomey by twenty-one percentage points in his quest to be renominated as a Republican. Many suggest his lagging poll numbers at that point contributed heavily to his party switch. Sure enough Specter runs stronger against Toomey as a Democrat than he does as a Republican.

A tight race for Senate could have been predicted but a legitimate party challenge was something Arlen Specter was hoping to avoid. However, Seventh District Congressman Joe Sestak is picking up steam in his bid to take away the Democratic nomination from the long time Senator Specter. Sestak now trails by just four-points, 46-42%. That is a considerable improvement from Rasmussen polls in August that showed Specter with a thirteen-point lead. Sestak is gaining on Specter while remaining largely unknown to voters. Just 14% hold a very favorable view of the Congressman and 8% hold a very unfavorable view against 30% of voters who don’t know enough about Sestak to offer an opinion.

Perhaps Pennsylvania Democrats are beginning to warm to Sestak’s appeal as a general election candidate. Positioning himself as the only “real Democrat” in the race Sestak is actually now leading Pat Toomey in the hypothetical race for next year’s Senate by a single point, 38-37%. An additional 19% remain unsure but expect that number to shrink as voters learn more about both candidates.

Moving our attention to the race for Governor a scattered field of Democrats compete against one another while the Republicans have a clear favorite. A whopping 37% of Democratic Primary voters are not sure who they plan to support in 2010. Rasmussen’s sample size is quite low polling just 469-likely voters but the results point to a cluttered field of at least five candidates; Dan Onorato (19%), Jack Wagner (14%), Joe Hoeffel (11%), Chris Doherty (6%) and Tom Knox (4%). When combined these five candidates attract only 54% of current voter preference, while one in ten Pennsylvania Democrats also prefer some other candidate.

There is far more clarity on the Republican side of the coin. State Attorney General Tom Corbett continues to hold a vast lead over Congressman Jim Gerlach for the GOP nomination, 54-10%. A sizeable 30% of Republican voters aren’t sure of their preference but Corbett’s lead even in these early stages may prove difficult for Gerlach to overcome. On the personal front 28% of Pennsylvania Republicans hold a very favorable view of Corbett against just 1% who do not. Gerlach meanwhile suffers from lack of name recognition with 37% of primary voters uncertain of what they think about the candidate against 21% who do not hold a strong opinion of Corbett.

Poll: Toomey takes surprise lead in Pennsylvania Senate race

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The fascinating story of three Senatorial candidates in the state of Pennsylvania continues to make waves nationally.

First, Republican Pat Toomey a former member of the House of Representatives who narrowly lost to one Arlen Specter in a 2004 primary challenge by less than two percentage points. Secondly, that same Arlen Specter is now a Democrat and running for his political life in the face of heavy scrutiny. Thirdly there is upstart Democratic Congressmen Joe Sestak who unseated ten-term incumbent Curt Weldon in 2006 and now has his sights set on even bigger things.

Rasmussen Reports which showed a Specter lead of eleven-point over Toomey just two months ago suddenly has the Republican challenger up by twelve in their latest poll of the Keystone State. Toomey’s 48-36% lead (12% remain undecided) signifies a rather stunning turn of events. Pennsylvania’s social and politically moderate status often makes for a good bellwether indicator of what lies ahead in upcoming midterm or Presidential election races. If this remains true in 2009 it looks as though sunny skies may just be on the horizon for a GOP desperate for a political turnaround.

Arlen Specter’s problems don’t even begin with Toomey but they might end there. According to the Rasmussen survey Specter’s now has a 43-54% approval to disapproval rating amongst Pennsylvanians and his recent and highly publicized town hall meeting on the topic of health care reform was more of a battle of attrition than exchange of ideas.

If that’s not enough, Specter is getting whacked from both ends of the political spectrum. Primary challenger Joe Sestak has at least an outside shot at the Democratic nomination although he currently trails Specter by thirteen-points in the upcoming primary. But even if Specter does survive it will likely be his second straight primary battle and may weaken his chances of keeping his Senate seat in the fall. Sestak the upstart is actually in better position to take Toomey head on according to the Rasmussen poll. His deficit is a modest eight-points (43-35%) with a large segment of Pennsylvania voters (18%) still undecided on either candidate.

The struggles for Democrats in Pennsylvania and nationwide are often reflected by their support of President Obama’s increasingly unpopular health care reform proposals. According to a recent Gallup survey just 43% approve of the President’s handling of the issue and an almost identical number (42%) of Pennsylvanians support the President’s plan for health care overhaul according to Rasmussen.

Not everyone foresees a doom and gloom scenario for Specter and the Democrats however, even if it seems clear they now face an uphill battle. Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post pointed towards a possible turning point for Senator Specter coming out of these recent town hall meetings. Suggesting that it’s imperative that he redefines himself now as a Democrat and effectively gets his message across starring in the face of tough opposition, Specter actually has an opportunity. Philadelphia-based Democratic media consultant Saul Shorr agrees with that sentiment.

The town hall confrontation worked to Specter's advantage, affording him the
opportunity to defend the President's plan in a high-profile public setting…The
town halls are the best thing that has happened to him. It makes him a Democrat.
– Chris Cillizza (Washington Post), Saul Shorr (Democratic media consultant)

The 2010 Senate race is one chalked full of interesting sets of circumstances. Pennsylvanians rejected the policies of President Bush in 2006 and voted heavily for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008. But the political climate is subject to rapid changes in temperature when placed on the hot stove of social turmoil and an economic recession. If the statistically improbable turn in these latest Senate polls serve as any kind of proof to that end, then be sure to stay tuned as the political drama in Pennsylvania continues to unfold.