READ FULL STORY HEREJust over a month until Pennsylvania’s Democratic Primary and Rasmussen Reports has dropped something of a bombshell on Arlen Specter’s campaign to retain his Senate seat.
Two new polls indicate that Senator Specter has fallen to his lowest level of support yet among Democrats and he continues to lag well behind with the general electorate. In his battle for the party nomination he now leads 7th District Congressman by a mere two-percent while trailing Republican Pat Toomey by ten-points.
Since one in ten Pennsylvania Democrats remain unsure of their preference for either Specter or Sestak the incumbent Senator’s 44-42% lead is now being depicted as a dead heat. Although he has been losing ground since the beginning of the year these new developments have to come as something of a surprise for Specter. Last month he enjoyed a 48-37% lead over Sestak and registered as high as 53% support as of January.
Arlen Specter still captures the strong support of quarter of Pennsylvania Democrats (25%) but 15% view him “very” unfavorably. The lesser known Sestak does better with those holding strong feelings. He registered a 17% very favorable against just a 4% very unfavorable rating according to Rasmussen. The health care issue is a divisive one amongst Democrats in the Keystone State just as it is for virtually all voters nationally. 60% of Democrats in Pennsylvania believe the health care bill passed last month to be a good thing for the country with 29% thinking it will have a negative impact. With 54% support Specter does better with those holding positive views of the reform bill. Sestak meanwhile does considerably better (59%) with those Democrats who oppose the bill meanwhile.
Regardless of who comes out on top of this heated primary battle they will face an uphill climb against Republican Pat Toomey. Running with a strong wind at his back during this favorable election cycle for the GOP, Toomey has jumped out to a 50-40% lead over Specter and an equally solid 47-36% advantage on Sestak. In the Toomey versus Specter matchup only 6% of voters are uncertain of whether they’d support either candidate while 4% suggest they’ll vote for someone else. Those figures grow to 12% and 5% respectively when looking at the potential matchup of Toomey against Sestak.
Most Pennsylvanians (53%) are against the recently passed health care bill through congress and six in ten voters (60%) would like to see it repealed. Senator Specter is being tied to the bill having voted for it and expressing vocal public support for its passage during a highly publicized series of town hall meetings last August. 84% of those favoring repeal not surprisingly support Pat Toomey’s campaign whereas 82% of the 37% minority of those Pennsylvanians against repeal side with Specter.
Senator Specter’s support bottomed out at around 36% during the town hall meeting debates last year. Although he has campaigned heavily in the months since his numbers have not increased past the 42% mark. Congressman Sestak meanwhile has been wedged between 35% and 38% support in Rasmussen surveys dating back to last October. Toomey leads either candidate by a wide margin among men, independents and narrowly among women. The Republican is viewed very favorably by 18% of the electorate in Pennsylvania with 10% holding a very unfavorable view. More than twice as many voters (33%) have a strongly unfavorable than favorable opinion (16%) of Arlen Specter. Joe Sestak is now in the negatives as well earning a very favorable opinion from 10% of Pennsylvanians against 12% who view him very unfavorably.
The narrow range of support for either Democratic potential corresponding to a consistent lead for Toomey gives the impression of a race that is stabilizing. This could make things difficult for a marked incumbent like Arlen Specter or a political upstart like Joe Sestak to change the minds of a large enough number of voters for victory in the fall.
PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / MATT ROURKE
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