Analysis: Republicans currently on track to pick up between three and nine Senate seats

READ FULL STORY HERE

Seven months out from the midterm elections and the dynamics remain the same. The Republican Party is primed to make significant gains in both the House and Senate but with their pace stalling to some degree it is unlikely they’ll carry enough autumn momentum for a takeover of either.

Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball analysis released their April update this morning, focusing attention on the Senate. Although there have been subtle shifts in particular races since last month the overall picture indicating a likely GOP pickup of 7-seats in the Senate and 27 in the House remains the same from March to April.

The Republicans are protecting 18-seats in the Senate this election season. Ten of those eighteen are labeled by the Crystal Ball as “safe” for the GOP. Four additional states (Florida, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina) are being depicted as “likely” holds for the party. In Florida the big story is the primary challenge between former House Speaker Marco Rubio and sitting Governor Charlie Crist. Rubio is polling ahead of Crist and either Republican is likely to defeat Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meet in the fall. In Iowa Charles Grassley is the likely winner over Democratic Roxanne Conlin and Republicans David Vitter and Richard Burr appear to have the decided advantage in their races out of Louisiana and North Carolina respectively.

The GOP is clearly vulnerable in four other states; Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio. All of which are labeled as “toss-up” races by Sabato. Chastened Senator Jim Bunning is retiring after 2010 and there is quite an ideological battle for the Republican nomination as his successor. Secretary of State Ted Greyson is the establishment candidate but Ron Paul’s son Rand has strong backing from moderates in the state favoring his more libertarian political slant as well. On the Democratic side Leiutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo is in a tussle with Attorney General Jack Conway. While either candidate, particularly against Paul, has opportunity for a victory in November it’s clearly uphill sledding for the Democratic Party in Kentucky during this political season.

Missouri has tilted toward the GOP in recent years as demonstrated by President Obama’s narrow loss here in 2008 despite a national popular vote margin of better than seven-percentage points. House Republican Roy Blunt is favored to win the race against Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. In New Hampshire former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte is banking on the Republican wave to help usher her in as the victor in the Granite State. She’ll have her hands full with popular Congressman Paul Hodes however who looks to pull off the modest upset for the Democrats. Lastly the bellwether state of Ohio features an interesting primary battle between Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner on the Democratic side. The winner will go on to face the favored former GOP Congressman Rob Portman.

Not surprisingly the Democrats head into the 2010 election season with a far more difficult task in protecting their majorities. This is reflected by numerous competitive Senate races amongst the 18-seats they are looking to hold onto after this November. Only in half of those races however can the Democrats truly bank on victory. This includes “safe” territory such as Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin as well as “likely” wins in the New York special election and Connecticut. Elsewhere danger lurks around every corner.

Senator Barbara Boxer is in the fight of her life in California. While the Crystal Ball predicts the left-leaning electorate could result in a narrow victory for her in the fall Republican’s Tom Campbell and Carly Fiorina are both capable of giving the embattled Senator a fight in a state that seems sick and tired of pretty much everything relating to politics. Colorado is a pure toss-up between two possible Democrats facing off against presumptive GOP candidate and Lietenant Governor Jane Norton. A far messier battle is underway in Barack Obama’s home state of Illinois. Democrat Alexi Giannoulias has corruption charges swirling around campaign but Republican Mark Kirk doesn’t seem content to run as conservative or moderate in this decidedly “blue” state.

Two other states with fascinating battles on their hands are Indiana and Pennsylvania. Brad Ellsworth has the difficult choir off trying to succeed popular Senator Evan Bayh who was successful for years in typically “red” Indiana. However Republican Dan Coats is running a lackluster campaign and while he still has the edge Indiana should be a battle down to the wire. In the Keystone State meanwhile the high profile fight for the Democratic nomination seems to be leaning in Senator Arlen Specter’s direction. Interestingly it is Congressman Joe Sestak who seems to so better against Republican nominee Pat Toomey in general election polling. Specter is banking on his experience and Toomey’s conservative politics in a left of center state to guide him to victory. Never the less Toomey and the GOP appear to have the edge in Pennsylvania.

Much to the Democrats dismay four other states show the likihood of Republican pickups in November. North Dakota is a no brainer for the GOP with retiring Democratic Senator Byron Dorgon giving way to Republican Governor John Hoeven. Three other states (Arkansas, Delaware and Nevada) meanwhile represent fertile territory for the GOP.

Even if Blanche Lincoln is able to defeat liberal challenger Bill Halter in next month’s primary the chances of retaining her post in Arkansas look fairly slim. Lincoln has been railed against nationally and in her home state by Republicans like Congressman John Boozman, her likely opponent. In Delaware the absence of Joe Biden to the office of Vice President and the refusal of his son Beau to run for the open Senate seat means it is more than likely that popular Congressman and former Governor Mike Castle is heavily favored to defeat Democrat Chris Coons. Lastly one of the more talked about Senate races is in Nevada where embattled Majority Leader Harry Reid is effectively behind any and all Republican challengers vying for his seat. Public anger towards Reid over health care and a strong grassroots movement by conservatives in his home state have made reelection unlikely. However with millions of dollars at his disposal and no powerful names in the Republican field to oppose him it’s a little early to count out Harry just yet.

As the Crystal Ball details the lay of the land it seems there are still a variety of possibilities remaining that could wind up with the seven-Republican Senate victories as predicted or a better or worse showing by the GOP. The ceiling for the GOP seems to be a pickup of nine-seats. This would include held seats by Republicans in all races where they lead decisively or the advantage swings their direction plus pick ups in all five incumbent Democratic toss ups and those races where the GOP has on outright lead. The worst reasonable expectation for Republicans would likely result in the Democrats holding on to a majority of those toss up races in their column plus two or three “steals” in races that current lean in the GOP’s direction. This could mean a pickup of just three Senate seats for the Republican Party. Averaging the two would ensure a safe estimate of six Republican pickups. Factoring at least one more for the GOP simply through the anti-incumbent, anti-Democratic wave that is blowing through this political season would place seven new Republicans in the Senate for 2011.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / JOSE SANCHEZ