Analysis: Republicans currently on track to pick up between three and nine Senate seats

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Seven months out from the midterm elections and the dynamics remain the same. The Republican Party is primed to make significant gains in both the House and Senate but with their pace stalling to some degree it is unlikely they’ll carry enough autumn momentum for a takeover of either.

Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball analysis released their April update this morning, focusing attention on the Senate. Although there have been subtle shifts in particular races since last month the overall picture indicating a likely GOP pickup of 7-seats in the Senate and 27 in the House remains the same from March to April.

The Republicans are protecting 18-seats in the Senate this election season. Ten of those eighteen are labeled by the Crystal Ball as “safe” for the GOP. Four additional states (Florida, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina) are being depicted as “likely” holds for the party. In Florida the big story is the primary challenge between former House Speaker Marco Rubio and sitting Governor Charlie Crist. Rubio is polling ahead of Crist and either Republican is likely to defeat Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meet in the fall. In Iowa Charles Grassley is the likely winner over Democratic Roxanne Conlin and Republicans David Vitter and Richard Burr appear to have the decided advantage in their races out of Louisiana and North Carolina respectively.

The GOP is clearly vulnerable in four other states; Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio. All of which are labeled as “toss-up” races by Sabato. Chastened Senator Jim Bunning is retiring after 2010 and there is quite an ideological battle for the Republican nomination as his successor. Secretary of State Ted Greyson is the establishment candidate but Ron Paul’s son Rand has strong backing from moderates in the state favoring his more libertarian political slant as well. On the Democratic side Leiutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo is in a tussle with Attorney General Jack Conway. While either candidate, particularly against Paul, has opportunity for a victory in November it’s clearly uphill sledding for the Democratic Party in Kentucky during this political season.

Missouri has tilted toward the GOP in recent years as demonstrated by President Obama’s narrow loss here in 2008 despite a national popular vote margin of better than seven-percentage points. House Republican Roy Blunt is favored to win the race against Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. In New Hampshire former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte is banking on the Republican wave to help usher her in as the victor in the Granite State. She’ll have her hands full with popular Congressman Paul Hodes however who looks to pull off the modest upset for the Democrats. Lastly the bellwether state of Ohio features an interesting primary battle between Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner on the Democratic side. The winner will go on to face the favored former GOP Congressman Rob Portman.

Not surprisingly the Democrats head into the 2010 election season with a far more difficult task in protecting their majorities. This is reflected by numerous competitive Senate races amongst the 18-seats they are looking to hold onto after this November. Only in half of those races however can the Democrats truly bank on victory. This includes “safe” territory such as Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin as well as “likely” wins in the New York special election and Connecticut. Elsewhere danger lurks around every corner.

Senator Barbara Boxer is in the fight of her life in California. While the Crystal Ball predicts the left-leaning electorate could result in a narrow victory for her in the fall Republican’s Tom Campbell and Carly Fiorina are both capable of giving the embattled Senator a fight in a state that seems sick and tired of pretty much everything relating to politics. Colorado is a pure toss-up between two possible Democrats facing off against presumptive GOP candidate and Lietenant Governor Jane Norton. A far messier battle is underway in Barack Obama’s home state of Illinois. Democrat Alexi Giannoulias has corruption charges swirling around campaign but Republican Mark Kirk doesn’t seem content to run as conservative or moderate in this decidedly “blue” state.

Two other states with fascinating battles on their hands are Indiana and Pennsylvania. Brad Ellsworth has the difficult choir off trying to succeed popular Senator Evan Bayh who was successful for years in typically “red” Indiana. However Republican Dan Coats is running a lackluster campaign and while he still has the edge Indiana should be a battle down to the wire. In the Keystone State meanwhile the high profile fight for the Democratic nomination seems to be leaning in Senator Arlen Specter’s direction. Interestingly it is Congressman Joe Sestak who seems to so better against Republican nominee Pat Toomey in general election polling. Specter is banking on his experience and Toomey’s conservative politics in a left of center state to guide him to victory. Never the less Toomey and the GOP appear to have the edge in Pennsylvania.

Much to the Democrats dismay four other states show the likihood of Republican pickups in November. North Dakota is a no brainer for the GOP with retiring Democratic Senator Byron Dorgon giving way to Republican Governor John Hoeven. Three other states (Arkansas, Delaware and Nevada) meanwhile represent fertile territory for the GOP.

Even if Blanche Lincoln is able to defeat liberal challenger Bill Halter in next month’s primary the chances of retaining her post in Arkansas look fairly slim. Lincoln has been railed against nationally and in her home state by Republicans like Congressman John Boozman, her likely opponent. In Delaware the absence of Joe Biden to the office of Vice President and the refusal of his son Beau to run for the open Senate seat means it is more than likely that popular Congressman and former Governor Mike Castle is heavily favored to defeat Democrat Chris Coons. Lastly one of the more talked about Senate races is in Nevada where embattled Majority Leader Harry Reid is effectively behind any and all Republican challengers vying for his seat. Public anger towards Reid over health care and a strong grassroots movement by conservatives in his home state have made reelection unlikely. However with millions of dollars at his disposal and no powerful names in the Republican field to oppose him it’s a little early to count out Harry just yet.

As the Crystal Ball details the lay of the land it seems there are still a variety of possibilities remaining that could wind up with the seven-Republican Senate victories as predicted or a better or worse showing by the GOP. The ceiling for the GOP seems to be a pickup of nine-seats. This would include held seats by Republicans in all races where they lead decisively or the advantage swings their direction plus pick ups in all five incumbent Democratic toss ups and those races where the GOP has on outright lead. The worst reasonable expectation for Republicans would likely result in the Democrats holding on to a majority of those toss up races in their column plus two or three “steals” in races that current lean in the GOP’s direction. This could mean a pickup of just three Senate seats for the Republican Party. Averaging the two would ensure a safe estimate of six Republican pickups. Factoring at least one more for the GOP simply through the anti-incumbent, anti-Democratic wave that is blowing through this political season would place seven new Republicans in the Senate for 2011.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / JOSE SANCHEZ

Poll: Pennsylvania & Delaware vulnerable for Democrats in 2010 Senate race

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The start of the New Year hopefully brings renewed optimism amongst Americans. The 2000s were a difficult time and the final two years of the decade were especially a struggle. In Washington meanwhile it’s business as usual. 2010 marks a crucial midterm-voting year where Republicans look to reverse recent loses all the while the Democrats try to solidify their political majorities.

Nate Silver and the folks atfivethirtyeight.com recently ranked each Senate race by the likelihood for a takeover from the opposing party. All factors such as low approval ratings for incumbents, primary challenges and retirements were taken into consideration.

At the top of the list ranks a Philadelphia neighbor to the south, the First State of Delaware. Beau Biden has not declared his candidacy for the state’s at-large Senate race since his father Joe’s resignation of the position earlier this year to assume the role of Vice President. If he does declare we could have an interesting race on our hands. If not it appears to be a virtual walkover for popular Congressman and former Governor Mike Castle. Currently FiveThirtyEight places Castle’s chances of beating Biden at around 55%, but nearly 100% over a lesser-known Democrat if the VP’s son decides to remain at his post of Attorney General.

Locally all the talk is about the high profile Pennsylvania race between Republican Pat Toomey and the winner of a primary battle featuring longtime Senator Arlen Specter and two-term Congressman Joe Sestak. Nate Silver claims that in an “ordinary” election cycle Toomey would have difficulty beating either Democratic candidate especially Specter. In a year where Democrats will be forced into a hard sell of their message to a skeptical American public however Toomey seems primed for an upset opportunity. Polls in the Keystone State show a virtual tossup between Specter and Toomey with Sestak lingering close behind.

Shifting attention away from local politics to the state of Connecticut high-ranking Senator Chris Dodd is in serious trouble. Recently an internal poll placed him behind representative Rob Simmons by five-points. National polls have Dodd even further behind and there are indications that he might not even win his party’s nomination for 2010.

Concern for Democrats range throughout the top of the FiveThirtyEight list of vulnerable incumbents. Senate majority leader Harry Reid faces huge challenges in his home state of Nevada. The likelihood that Reid will lose his race continues to grow but there are some reasons for optimism as Nate Silver’s website points out. Reid has a significant war chest full of cash on hand, the perception of his effectiveness should improve in the event that he passes health care reform, the Democrats control the party machine of Nevada and Republicans in the Silver State remain untested.

Elsewhere Blanche Lincoln has a battle on her hands in the state of Arkansas and wisely strayed from the limelight during the health care debate. In Colorado Michael Bennet is said to be vulnerable but Silver suggests that more polling is needed before the race can truly be labeled.

While clearly sitting in better position for numerous takeovers the Republicans are also vulnerable in their fair share of races. Democrat Robin Carnahan continues to hold a stable lead over Republican opponent Roy Blunt who FiveThirtyEight claims is “the wrong kind of candidate for this [election] cycle.” In Ohio Rob Portman holds a modest lead over two Democratic candidates in a state that has drifted away from President Obama and Democrats over the past year. Still Nate Silver sees a tight race, as Portman will have to battle his critics and rid the perception of his ties to Bush-era policies.

If Libertarian Rand Paul beats moderate Republican Trey Grayson for the nomination in Kentucky indicators suggest a tight race in a state where Libertarian talking points are not as well received as in other parts of the country. The open seat vacated by retiring Senator and former Phillies Hall of Fame pitcher Jim Bunning should be hotly contested throughout the campaign season. The race in New Hampshire meanwhile will also be viewed with much anticipation as the open seat in a bellwether state could go a long way in dictating the overall national trend this November.

Other races where polling is competitive are in the states of Illinois, North Carolina, North Dakota and Louisiana where Republicans appear just as vulnerable as Democrats. There seems to be more stability elsewhere in many of the 36 or more seats that will be open in 2010. What makes the upcoming election all the more fascinating as an indicator of national trends are the 36-races up for election split in half with exactly eighteen currently held by Democrats and the GOP each.

Other notable publications in addition to FiveThirtyEight tracking these races include Larry J. Sabato’s Chrystal Ball, Cook Political Report, CQ Politics, the Rothenberg Political Report, Swing State Project and Campaign Diaries. Using the six aforementioned sources as a guide there are seven states (HI, IN, MD, NY, OR, VT, WA) where the Democrats are considered safe winners in 2010 and nine (AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, OK, SC, SD, UT) where the Republican Party is overwhelmingly poised for victory.

New York and California are likely for the Democrats this fall with Florida, Iowa and Georgia fitting that same description for the GOP. Fifteen other states appear to lean slightly one way or to the other or are considered completely up for grabs. The Democrats currently enjoy a twenty-seat advantage in the U.S. Senate after two caucusing independents are taken into consideration. With at least 36-races on the table for 2010 could the Republican Party be looking for that magic number 24?

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / HARRY HAMBURG