The start of the New Year hopefully brings renewed optimism amongst Americans. The 2000s were a difficult time and the final two years of the decade were especially a struggle. In Washington meanwhile it’s business as usual. 2010 marks a crucial midterm-voting year where Republicans look to reverse recent loses all the while the Democrats try to solidify their political majorities.
At the top of the list ranks a Philadelphia neighbor to the south, the First State of Delaware. Beau Biden has not declared his candidacy for the state’s at-large Senate race since his father Joe’s resignation of the position earlier this year to assume the role of Vice President. If he does declare we could have an interesting race on our hands. If not it appears to be a virtual walkover for popular Congressman and former Governor Mike Castle. Currently FiveThirtyEight places Castle’s chances of beating Biden at around 55%, but nearly 100% over a lesser-known Democrat if the VP’s son decides to remain at his post of Attorney General.
Locally all the talk is about the high profile Pennsylvania race between Republican Pat Toomey and the winner of a primary battle featuring longtime Senator Arlen Specter and two-term Congressman Joe Sestak. Nate Silver claims that in an “ordinary” election cycle Toomey would have difficulty beating either Democratic candidate especially Specter. In a year where Democrats will be forced into a hard sell of their message to a skeptical American public however Toomey seems primed for an upset opportunity. Polls in the Keystone State show a virtual tossup between Specter and Toomey with Sestak lingering close behind.
Shifting attention away from local politics to the state of Connecticut high-ranking Senator Chris Dodd is in serious trouble. Recently an internal poll placed him behind representative Rob Simmons by five-points. National polls have Dodd even further behind and there are indications that he might not even win his party’s nomination for 2010.
Concern for Democrats range throughout the top of the FiveThirtyEight list of vulnerable incumbents. Senate majority leader Harry Reid faces huge challenges in his home state of Nevada. The likelihood that Reid will lose his race continues to grow but there are some reasons for optimism as Nate Silver’s website points out. Reid has a significant war chest full of cash on hand, the perception of his effectiveness should improve in the event that he passes health care reform, the Democrats control the party machine of Nevada and Republicans in the Silver State remain untested.
Elsewhere Blanche Lincoln has a battle on her hands in the state of Arkansas and wisely strayed from the limelight during the health care debate. In Colorado Michael Bennet is said to be vulnerable but Silver suggests that more polling is needed before the race can truly be labeled.
While clearly sitting in better position for numerous takeovers the Republicans are also vulnerable in their fair share of races. Democrat Robin Carnahan continues to hold a stable lead over Republican opponent Roy Blunt who FiveThirtyEight claims is “the wrong kind of candidate for this [election] cycle.” In Ohio Rob Portman holds a modest lead over two Democratic candidates in a state that has drifted away from President Obama and Democrats over the past year. Still Nate Silver sees a tight race, as Portman will have to battle his critics and rid the perception of his ties to Bush-era policies.
If Libertarian Rand Paul beats moderate Republican Trey Grayson for the nomination in Kentucky indicators suggest a tight race in a state where Libertarian talking points are not as well received as in other parts of the country. The open seat vacated by retiring Senator and former Phillies Hall of Fame pitcher Jim Bunning should be hotly contested throughout the campaign season. The race in New Hampshire meanwhile will also be viewed with much anticipation as the open seat in a bellwether state could go a long way in dictating the overall national trend this November.
Other races where polling is competitive are in the states of Illinois, North Carolina, North Dakota and Louisiana where Republicans appear just as vulnerable as Democrats. There seems to be more stability elsewhere in many of the 36 or more seats that will be open in 2010. What makes the upcoming election all the more fascinating as an indicator of national trends are the 36-races up for election split in half with exactly eighteen currently held by Democrats and the GOP each.
Other notable publications in addition to FiveThirtyEight tracking these races include Larry J. Sabato’s Chrystal Ball, Cook Political Report, CQ Politics, the Rothenberg Political Report, Swing State Project and Campaign Diaries. Using the six aforementioned sources as a guide there are seven states (HI, IN, MD, NY, OR, VT, WA) where the Democrats are considered safe winners in 2010 and nine (AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, OK, SC, SD, UT) where the Republican Party is overwhelmingly poised for victory.
New York and California are likely for the Democrats this fall with Florida, Iowa and Georgia fitting that same description for the GOP. Fifteen other states appear to lean slightly one way or to the other or are considered completely up for grabs. The Democrats currently enjoy a twenty-seat advantage in the U.S. Senate after two caucusing independents are taken into consideration. With at least 36-races on the table for 2010 could the Republican Party be looking for that magic number 24?
PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / HARRY HAMBURG
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