READ FULL STORY HEREFranklin & Marshall College recently conducted their first survey in three months. There were a number of interesting findings from the 1,165 Pennsylvanian adults sampled. Most notably the poll offers up some sobering news for President Obama and some downright bad news for two Democrats seeking to capture or retain a Senate seat this fall.
The major headlines will likely center around Franklin & Marshall’s polling of the Senate race that now shows Republican Pat Toomey leading Arlen Specter by fourteen-points among “likely” voters and Congressman Joe Sestak by a whopping twenty-two. Toomey’s lead among “registered” voters meanwhile is non-existent versus Specter and he holds a more modest 12% advantage over Sestak. Using either tracking method there are a large number of Pennsylvania voters claiming to be undecided, not particularly surprising considering the unique dynamics of a race involving a veteran party switch and heated primary battle. But which is a better source of polling; likely voters or registered voters?
Noted survey analyzer Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com chimes in on the discussion that shows a 30-30% dead heat between Toomey and Specter in one model and decisive lead of 45-31% for the Republican challenger in the other. Silver suggests that likely voter samples are a better source of polling but only as Election Day draws nearer. Some analysis will find value in combining the results of both. In this case Toomey’s lead would be represented as around seven-percentage points over Arlen Specter and around 17% over Joe Sestak. Silver’s policy however is to lean towards using registered voter models up through Labor Day and then switching to likely voter tracking for the stretch run.
Franklin & Marshall typically does a terrific job and offers up a wealth of information on the state of affairs in Pennsylvania. That said, in this case their polling of only 395-likely voters among the 993-sample of registered voters alludes to a turnout of only around 40% for the state. In reality midterm elections generally see a registered voter turnout of around 65-70% and in the instance of Pennsylvania’s high profile Senate race for 2010 that number could easily exceed three-quarters of the voting population.
Furthermore a curiously high number of poll responders claim to either be or lean Republican. 46% of poll responders are registered Democrat, 43% Republican and nine-percent independent. The breakdown from the Franklin & Marshall survey also shows 45% leaning Republican, 44% Democrat and nine-percent described as pure independents. The Pennsylvania Department of State’s official breakdown of voter registration however shows a Democratic edge of 51-37-12% over Republican’s and other/independents.
Does this mean current social conditions that seem to be favoring Republican candidates are rapidly gripping Pennsylvania as well? Or does it simply mean that Republican’s are unintentionally over-sampled by this Franklin & Marshall survey? Silver ultimately claims the low likely voter sample to be more a calculation of “highly enthusiastic” voters than those who are likely to show up at the polls in general come November. In a Democracy of course a highly engaged vote for Toomey is offset by a lethargic vote for Specter or Sestak. Still it seems clear that Republicans are winning the enthusiasm battle at this point.
Elsewhere the Franklin & Marshall survey finds Dan Onorato and Tom Corbett as the leading candidates from a field of Democrats and Republicans vying for their party’s nomination for Governor. In both instances there is an exceedingly high number, over 70%, of undecided voters in either party.
By a margin of 53-39% most Pennsylvania voters feel their state if heading in the wrong direction. That is an improvement however from recent polls and represents the highest level of confidence since June of last year. 50% also claim their family is an about the same financial shape as they were this time last year, but four times as many (40%) claim they are worse off than better (10%). Optimism is stronger when looking ahead. Although not polling as high as in recent months more Pennsylvanians (27%) are confident they’ll be better off a year from now than worse off (17%).
Governor Rendell’s favorability rating has risen to 42%. While that’s still below the 45% who view him unfavorably it does mark an improvement from recent months. His personal best came in October of 2006 when voters had a favorable opinion of the Governor by a 54-30% margin helping pave the way to a landslide victory for reelection the next month. Also rebounding some is Senator Specter (35%) who ties his highest level of favorability since last March. At a 32-20% favorable to unfavorable margin Bob Casey Jr., not up for reelection until 2012, holds steady from the last Franklin & Marshall survey. President Obama meanwhile continues to struggle. For the first time in his Presidency the number of Pennsylvania voters viewing Obama unfavorably (44%) matches his favorable percentage (44%). Furthermore just 38% give Obama good or excellent marks for handling his job as President, 32% a fair grade and 29% feel he is doing a poor job in office.
Polling on other topics the survey indicates healthcare (29%) and the economy (24%) as the two major concerns for Pennsylvanians in deciding their vote for Senate this fall. Just sixteen-percent think the PA state legislature is doing a good or excellent job and 78% think Pennsylvania state government needs reform with nine in ten voters (91%) feeling somewhat or very strongly about the issue.
Nineteen-percent of Pennsylvanians describe themselves as liberal, 30% moderate and 42% conservative. The number of liberals has held relatively steady through the decade ranging from a high of 22% to a low of 15%. The current percentage is similar to the 18.5% average measured over the past ten-years. Moderates have shown considerable decline over the past year meanwhile whereas self-described conservatives are appearing at record levels in recent months. The average number of moderates and conservatives over the past decade is 40.5% and 35.25% respectively. Currently at 30% however moderate Pennsylvanians number an all-time low and down from a high of 52% measured in September of 2004. Conservatives meanwhile set a record in August of last year (43%) and their 40.25% average from the past seven months is noticeably higher than the 35.25% in the last decade overall.
Lastly on the topic of abortion and religion 73% of Pennsylvanians believe abortion should be legal. This includes 50% who think it ought to be legal under certain circumstances and 23% who would prefer to see it legal under any circumstance. That’s a slightly lower total than the average taken from the past decade but still more than three-times the percentage (24%) of those who currently feel abortion should be illegal in all circumstances. 81% of Keystone State voters believe in the Bible in meanwhile – a figure that is right in line with averages taken from the past five and a half years of polling.
PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Pablo Martinez Monsivais
The major headlines will likely center around Franklin & Marshall’s polling of the Senate race that now shows Republican Pat Toomey leading Arlen Specter by fourteen-points among “likely” voters and Congressman Joe Sestak by a whopping twenty-two. Toomey’s lead among “registered” voters meanwhile is non-existent versus Specter and he holds a more modest 12% advantage over Sestak. Using either tracking method there are a large number of Pennsylvania voters claiming to be undecided, not particularly surprising considering the unique dynamics of a race involving a veteran party switch and heated primary battle. But which is a better source of polling; likely voters or registered voters?
Noted survey analyzer Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com chimes in on the discussion that shows a 30-30% dead heat between Toomey and Specter in one model and decisive lead of 45-31% for the Republican challenger in the other. Silver suggests that likely voter samples are a better source of polling but only as Election Day draws nearer. Some analysis will find value in combining the results of both. In this case Toomey’s lead would be represented as around seven-percentage points over Arlen Specter and around 17% over Joe Sestak. Silver’s policy however is to lean towards using registered voter models up through Labor Day and then switching to likely voter tracking for the stretch run.
Franklin & Marshall typically does a terrific job and offers up a wealth of information on the state of affairs in Pennsylvania. That said, in this case their polling of only 395-likely voters among the 993-sample of registered voters alludes to a turnout of only around 40% for the state. In reality midterm elections generally see a registered voter turnout of around 65-70% and in the instance of Pennsylvania’s high profile Senate race for 2010 that number could easily exceed three-quarters of the voting population.
Furthermore a curiously high number of poll responders claim to either be or lean Republican. 46% of poll responders are registered Democrat, 43% Republican and nine-percent independent. The breakdown from the Franklin & Marshall survey also shows 45% leaning Republican, 44% Democrat and nine-percent described as pure independents. The Pennsylvania Department of State’s official breakdown of voter registration however shows a Democratic edge of 51-37-12% over Republican’s and other/independents.
Does this mean current social conditions that seem to be favoring Republican candidates are rapidly gripping Pennsylvania as well? Or does it simply mean that Republican’s are unintentionally over-sampled by this Franklin & Marshall survey? Silver ultimately claims the low likely voter sample to be more a calculation of “highly enthusiastic” voters than those who are likely to show up at the polls in general come November. In a Democracy of course a highly engaged vote for Toomey is offset by a lethargic vote for Specter or Sestak. Still it seems clear that Republicans are winning the enthusiasm battle at this point.
Elsewhere the Franklin & Marshall survey finds Dan Onorato and Tom Corbett as the leading candidates from a field of Democrats and Republicans vying for their party’s nomination for Governor. In both instances there is an exceedingly high number, over 70%, of undecided voters in either party.
By a margin of 53-39% most Pennsylvania voters feel their state if heading in the wrong direction. That is an improvement however from recent polls and represents the highest level of confidence since June of last year. 50% also claim their family is an about the same financial shape as they were this time last year, but four times as many (40%) claim they are worse off than better (10%). Optimism is stronger when looking ahead. Although not polling as high as in recent months more Pennsylvanians (27%) are confident they’ll be better off a year from now than worse off (17%).
Governor Rendell’s favorability rating has risen to 42%. While that’s still below the 45% who view him unfavorably it does mark an improvement from recent months. His personal best came in October of 2006 when voters had a favorable opinion of the Governor by a 54-30% margin helping pave the way to a landslide victory for reelection the next month. Also rebounding some is Senator Specter (35%) who ties his highest level of favorability since last March. At a 32-20% favorable to unfavorable margin Bob Casey Jr., not up for reelection until 2012, holds steady from the last Franklin & Marshall survey. President Obama meanwhile continues to struggle. For the first time in his Presidency the number of Pennsylvania voters viewing Obama unfavorably (44%) matches his favorable percentage (44%). Furthermore just 38% give Obama good or excellent marks for handling his job as President, 32% a fair grade and 29% feel he is doing a poor job in office.
Polling on other topics the survey indicates healthcare (29%) and the economy (24%) as the two major concerns for Pennsylvanians in deciding their vote for Senate this fall. Just sixteen-percent think the PA state legislature is doing a good or excellent job and 78% think Pennsylvania state government needs reform with nine in ten voters (91%) feeling somewhat or very strongly about the issue.
Nineteen-percent of Pennsylvanians describe themselves as liberal, 30% moderate and 42% conservative. The number of liberals has held relatively steady through the decade ranging from a high of 22% to a low of 15%. The current percentage is similar to the 18.5% average measured over the past ten-years. Moderates have shown considerable decline over the past year meanwhile whereas self-described conservatives are appearing at record levels in recent months. The average number of moderates and conservatives over the past decade is 40.5% and 35.25% respectively. Currently at 30% however moderate Pennsylvanians number an all-time low and down from a high of 52% measured in September of 2004. Conservatives meanwhile set a record in August of last year (43%) and their 40.25% average from the past seven months is noticeably higher than the 35.25% in the last decade overall.
Lastly on the topic of abortion and religion 73% of Pennsylvanians believe abortion should be legal. This includes 50% who think it ought to be legal under certain circumstances and 23% who would prefer to see it legal under any circumstance. That’s a slightly lower total than the average taken from the past decade but still more than three-times the percentage (24%) of those who currently feel abortion should be illegal in all circumstances. 81% of Keystone State voters believe in the Bible in meanwhile – a figure that is right in line with averages taken from the past five and a half years of polling.
PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Pablo Martinez Monsivais
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