The list of notable retiring Democrats continues to grow. How much pain will be inflicted upon the current party in power however remains to be seen.
Chris Dodd is latest to join the ranks of the soon to be unemployed within the Democratic ranks. 2009 was not an easy year in the personal life for the Connecticut Senator. A close friend to Ted Kennedy for many years Dodd was said to be devastated by the liberal icon’s passing last August from brain cancer. Dodd himself was diagnosed and treated for early-stage prostate cancer last summer and was at the forefront of tough issues such as financial and health care reform. Yet the political realities were likely a factor in the 65-year old Senator’s decision to step down at the end of his term in January of 2011.
Rasmussen Reports indicated that Dodd was trailing in the polls against all three of his likely Republican match ups for the fall. The same publication pegged the Connecticut Senator with just a 19% “very” favorable rating against over twice as many (39%) who view him very unfavorably. To trail as a well-known Democrat in the politcally left-leaning Constitution State, one that helped Barack Obama to a 23-point win in 2008 and still hands the President a 57% approval rating, is rather alarming. Even Dodd’s own internals showed him fighting an uphill battle against Republicans in November.
With Dodd’s personal and political struggles essentially forcing a retirement concession could the door now be opened for another Democratic candidate to improve their party’s chances in the fall? The New York Times has been reporting that those shoes will likely be filled by highly popular Attorney General Richard Blumenthal. Early polling conducted by Quinnipiac last summer showed Blumenthal receiving a sky-high 79% approval rating from Connecticut voters. His entrance in the race or that of a handful of other Democrats in what FiveThirtyEight.com's Nate Silver calls “a deep bench” in the New England “blue” state shifts the prospects of victory from difficult to likely.
Democratic prospects in North Dakota meanwhile are considerably less rosey with the recently announced retirement of Senator Byron Dorgan. Seemingly the only candidate at this point with a chance to retain the vacant seat for the Democrats would be longtime state representative Earl Pomeroy. Fortunately for the GOP popular sitting Governor John Hoeven looks primed to run for the Senate position. Hoeven is considered by many to be a moderate Republican, particularly on economic issues, and reflects a North Dakota electorate far more to the political right than that of the previously mentioned Connecticut. Hoeven consistently polls as one of the most popular Governors in the nation and Rasmussen recently showed him with a 58-36% advantage over Senator Dorgan in their hypothetical match up.
On the topic of Governor’s who will not be running for any sort of office in 2010 comes Bill Ritter of Colorado. Ritter took over the position of Governor from exiting two-term Republican Bill Owens in 2007 but has decided not to run for his own second term. While not as desperate looking a situation for the Democrats as that which is unfolding in North Dakota Ritter was behind one potential Republican and in a dogfight with another according to recent Rasmussen polling. Likely nominee and current GOP Congressman Scott McInnis was ahead 48-40% and Ritter’s approval rating with Coloradans has dropped into the negatives in recent months.
“For the good of the party” could be claimed by the stepping down of Dodd whose seat is likely to be filled by another Democrat. Not so in the instances of North Dakota and Colorado where the Democrats continue to lose clout after a difficult 2009 has put their solid national majorities in jeopardy heading into 2010. Still if there was ever a time when a party out of power could actually fail to make up substantial ground on the unpopular opposition in control of government 2010 and the GOP might be just that.
Even RNC chairman Michael Steele recently admitted "not this year" to a question of whether the Republican Party can retake control of the House in 2010. Both parties at present are historically unpopular with voters. The Democrats appear vulnerable and will be forced to traverse a treacherous path in order to keep anything even resembling their current majorities in tact. The Republicans meanwhile are still licking their wounds from three years of setbacks and by most assessments are a party divided. The political midterm war of 2010 may very well be fought on two fronts. The typical dueling between Democrats and Republicans will take center stage but a battle against attrition for both parties could play a major role in the outcome.
AP PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / FILE
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