Poll: State of the Union rarely has meaningful effect on Presidential support

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President Obama will address the nation tonight in his first State of the Union speech. Many political observers have suggested it critical that the President deliver a populist message of broad themes to reverse what has been at best a shaky past several months of legislation.

According to a recent Gallup analysis however history suggests the White House should not expect much of a post-speech bounce in the polls from the Commander in Chief’s address. In fact there have been more instances of a net loss in approval ratings than substantive gains for Presidents.

Tracking the pre and post-address job approval of each President since Jimmy Carter Gallup finds a mixed bag. Of the 27-speeches given since Carter’s first State of the Union in 1978 a total of fourteen have indicated a modest decline in a Presidents approval, three times there has been no loss or gain and just ten times a bump in popularity has been found. Overall Carter, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush all lost an average of one-percentage point after their national addresses and George H.W. Bush lost an average of four points. Only Bill Clinton, noted for skillful oratory, typically saw a bounce (3%) in his job approval following the State of the Union.

Even Clinton’s success after giving the big speech each year was decidedly uneven. The first Gallup polls taken after his State of the Union address in February of 1997 showed a decline of three-percentage points in his popularity. He also lost a point after his final speech in January of 2000 and remained unfazed as a virtual lame duck President a year earlier in 1999. Clinton’s greatest success came in 1998. Already polling strong at 59% the President offered up a strongly positive message that January touting a balanced federal budget and an economy at record strength. He made an impressive ten-point jump to 69% in the subsequent poll taken days after his address.

Clinton’s 1996 speech that unofficially kicked off his reelection campaign was also well received. Earning him a six-point bounce from a struggling 46% to a positive 52% approval the President rode his newfound popularity to an easy win in the fall. Other President’s have been less fortunate however.

Jimmy Carter dipped by three-points from 55% to 52% after his first State of the Union address in 1978. Embroiled in political controversies in 1987 President Reagan’s speech that year lost him five-points and dropped his approval rating down to 43%. Reagan also lost some clout two years earlier. Fresh off a landslide victory for reelection that previous November the “Great Communicator” never the less dipped by four-points from 64% to 60% post-speech. George H.W. Bush lost seven-points in early-1990 down from a lofty 80%. However two Gallup polls taken at that time were spread out by well over a month and perhaps included other factors helping to explain the sudden drop.

The State of the Union was both a blessing and a curse for George W. Bush depending on the year of the speech. His strongest performance came in 2005 after a reelection victory in the fall and the foreign policy success of the Iraqi elections taking place that January. Bush gained six-points pushing his approval rating up to 57%. Only modest gains or drops were experienced after addresses to the nation in 2002, ’03, ’06 and ’08. In two instances however Bush lost notable clout amongst voters. His 2004 speech not only contributed to a four-point drop but sent his approval ratings under the majority level (49%). Similarly in 2007 Bush went from bad (36%), to worse (32%) almost immediately after the State of the Union.

Although this will be his first State of the Union President Obama has already addressed Congress twice in joint sessions. In late-February of this year Obama rebounded from his first approval ratings dip to score an impressive eight-point bounce up to 67% following a speech focusing on his economic agenda. The memorable “You lie!” shout from Congressman Joe Wilson highlighted what was a modest two-point bump, up to 53%, for Obama in a September address focusing on his healthcare proposals.

How much does President Obama have riding on this address, and how much positive impact will delivering an effective speech mean to his fortunes in the long run? Like Clinton the current President is known for executing rousing speeches, but will he simply be preaching to the choir? Gallup suggests that part of the reason success after the State of the Union tends to be fairly muted is because the audience is made up mostly of supporters. Recent history shows that only during Bill Clinton’s 1995 address were there a virtually even number of Democratic, Republican and independent viewers. On the other hand as recently as 2005 the divisive Presidency of George W. Bush was underscored by over twice as many Republicans (52%) as Democrats (25%) and independents (22%) watching the speech.

For the record Clinton moved from a 47% to 49% approval rating in the days after his 1995 State of the Union address and Bush improved by six-points to 57% benefiting from all of the Republican support ten-years later. President Obama’s scorecard meanwhile remains to be seen. But while his sluggish approval ratings, topping out at around 50% in recent weeks, do not exactly spell disaster an unusually large post-speech bounce for Obama would seem particularly important this go-round.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Charles Dharapak