Poll: Despite difficult 2000s most Americans hold positive outlook toward years ahead

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In spite of coming off a particularly rough decade and uncertain of the years ahead most Americans are optimistic about their country’s future in the 2010s and beyond.

63% of the American public has an optimistic outlook for the U.S. during the next twenty-years. Just 34% are pessimistic according to a new survey released by USA Today/Gallup. The level of enthusiasm being expressed while not as strong as it was heading into the 1990s or 2000s is noticeably higher than it was near the end of the 70s. Embroiled in a decade of economic, political and social turmoil just slightly more than half of Americans (51%) claimed optimism heading into the 1980s – 39% meanwhile were pessimistic about the next twenty-years at that time.

Today’s level of optimism is lower never the less than its recent peak years of the early-90s and 2000s. Gallup has asked responders the question at different times in different years. The current poll was conducted last month and the poll for the 1980s was done in August of 1979. The poll question for last decade however wasn’t created until October of 2000 and the 90s version wasn’t released until May of 1991. Still it’s clear that optimism towards the days ahead was highest in the previous two decades. Virtually identical totals in the 90s and 2000s averaged 78-79% optimism against just 19-20% pessimism.

While levels of optimism outdistance pessimism in each decade public feelings are mostly reserved to the side of caution. Just seven-percent of the total 63% who claim an optimistic outlook for the next twenty-years define their feelings as being “very” optimistic. That is similar to the eight-percent who claimed to be very optimistic early last decade and the ten-percent recorded in 1991 when general optimism reached record levels.

There is widening gap between political parties on the topic according to the Gallup survey. With the White House and Congress in their favor Democrats are currently far more optimistic (77%) about the coming years than Republicans (50%). Independents meanwhile float predictably in between and similar to overall figures with a 62-36% optimist-pessimist split in opinion. This current 27-point gap is vastly wider than what was recorded between the two major parties in other recent decades. There was a nine-point gap in the early-90s when 85% of Republicans and 76% of Democrats had an optimistic outlook of the future. The difference was eight-percentage points in October of 2000 when Democrats (83%) were marginally more optimistic than Republicans (75%). Even in the tumultuous late-70s the gap between parties was a narrow seven-percent. Republicans (59%) were surprisingly more optimistic than Democrats (52%) at the time despite being out of political power.

The wide gap at present goes hand in hand with many claims being made by pollsters and analysts who see an America more socially divided and politically polarized now than ever before. As Gallup points out the expectation from the late-70s when overall optimism was at just 51% would be that Republicans both out of power and frustrated with Democratic control of the White House and Congress to be far more pessimistic than their fellow Democrats. Yet the narrow seven-point gap flies in the face of that assumption.

The political environment clearly has much to do with general optimism and pessimism. Perhaps many Republicans in late-1979 were hopeful of a Republican comeback which sure enough took place with the landslide Presidential victory of Ronald Reagan and control of the Senate by the GOP for the first in 28-years in 1980. Today there are record levels of displeasure with their government being recorded by the American people.

The past two President’s Barack Obama and George W. Bush featured highly partisan levels of support and opposition between parties. Ronald Reagan’s 1980 victory by nearly ten-percentage points included 84% support from fellow Republicans. The defeated President Carter pulled in just under two-thirds support (66%) from Democrats, the difference a clearly decisive factor in his loss. Bill Clinton’s 8.5% victory over Bob Dole in 1996 saw the support of 78% of Democrats favoring the sitting President and 86% of Republicans siding with Dole.

The polarization between parties is most evident in recent years with around 90% of Democrats and Republicans in lock step behind their representative candidate. In 2008 for example President Obama drew 89% of the Democratic vote and John McCain won 90% of Republicans. Obama’s better than seven-point margin of victory nationally hinged more on strong Democratic turnout and support from independents than the securing of a decisive edge between parties achieved by the likes of Ronald Reagan 28-years prior.

In addition to the range of differences between parties in terms of optimism the outlook also tends to vary between age and income. Youthful optimism is abundant today with 75% aged 18-29 expressing a positive outlook for the next twenty-years. Just 54% of elders aged 65 and over agree however with age groups in between mirroring closely the overall percentages. Lower income families are not surprisingly less optimistic on the whole as well. Just 52% of households making $30,000 or less hold an optimistic outlook against around two-thirds of those earning higher than that particular income level.