Poll: Pennsylvania Governor and Senate races heat up

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The major races in Pennsylvania may still be a year away but things are already heating up.

Arlen Specter trails Republican challenger Pat Toomey narrowly in his reelection bid for Senate and runs just ahead of fellow Democrat Joe Sestak. Sestak and Toomey meanwhile run neck and neck for the seat in a hypothetical 2010 match up. Tom Corbett is out to a huge early lead in the Republican Gubernatorial primary meanwhile. On the other side “not sure” is the most common response leading a field of Democrats running for Governor.

This information come to us compliments of some just released polling from Rasmussen Reports tracking the preference of voters in Pennsylvania.

Republican Pat Toomey leads Senator Arlen Specter 45-40%. That’s down from a twelve-point advantage in August during the height of Specter’s town hall meetings where he often received highly publicized and harsh treatment from attendees. The Senator’s favorability is up slightly from August as well but still mired in the negatives. Currently 46% of Pennsylvanians have a favorable view of Specter while 52% hold an unfavorable view. Back in April a Rasmussen poll showed Senator trailing Pat Toomey by twenty-one percentage points in his quest to be renominated as a Republican. Many suggest his lagging poll numbers at that point contributed heavily to his party switch. Sure enough Specter runs stronger against Toomey as a Democrat than he does as a Republican.

A tight race for Senate could have been predicted but a legitimate party challenge was something Arlen Specter was hoping to avoid. However, Seventh District Congressman Joe Sestak is picking up steam in his bid to take away the Democratic nomination from the long time Senator Specter. Sestak now trails by just four-points, 46-42%. That is a considerable improvement from Rasmussen polls in August that showed Specter with a thirteen-point lead. Sestak is gaining on Specter while remaining largely unknown to voters. Just 14% hold a very favorable view of the Congressman and 8% hold a very unfavorable view against 30% of voters who don’t know enough about Sestak to offer an opinion.

Perhaps Pennsylvania Democrats are beginning to warm to Sestak’s appeal as a general election candidate. Positioning himself as the only “real Democrat” in the race Sestak is actually now leading Pat Toomey in the hypothetical race for next year’s Senate by a single point, 38-37%. An additional 19% remain unsure but expect that number to shrink as voters learn more about both candidates.

Moving our attention to the race for Governor a scattered field of Democrats compete against one another while the Republicans have a clear favorite. A whopping 37% of Democratic Primary voters are not sure who they plan to support in 2010. Rasmussen’s sample size is quite low polling just 469-likely voters but the results point to a cluttered field of at least five candidates; Dan Onorato (19%), Jack Wagner (14%), Joe Hoeffel (11%), Chris Doherty (6%) and Tom Knox (4%). When combined these five candidates attract only 54% of current voter preference, while one in ten Pennsylvania Democrats also prefer some other candidate.

There is far more clarity on the Republican side of the coin. State Attorney General Tom Corbett continues to hold a vast lead over Congressman Jim Gerlach for the GOP nomination, 54-10%. A sizeable 30% of Republican voters aren’t sure of their preference but Corbett’s lead even in these early stages may prove difficult for Gerlach to overcome. On the personal front 28% of Pennsylvania Republicans hold a very favorable view of Corbett against just 1% who do not. Gerlach meanwhile suffers from lack of name recognition with 37% of primary voters uncertain of what they think about the candidate against 21% who do not hold a strong opinion of Corbett.