Poll: New Jersey Governor's race now a toss-up

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After many months of trailing in the polls Governor Jon Corzine has essentially caught up.

With just weeks to go in the race for New Jersey Governor the incumbent Democrat has been thrust into a virtual toss-up against Republican challenger Chris Christie. These are latest findings from both Quinnipiac and Rasmussen measuring the preference of likely voters in the Garden State.

As reported here two weeks ago in conjunction with Quinnipiac’s previous survey Christie’s lead had shrunk to four-points, 43-39%. Now the latest poll finds a statistically insignificant one-percentage point lead for the Republican challenger, 41-40%. At 14% New Jersey voters are also recording their highest level of preference yet for independent candidate Christopher Daggett.

Months of attack ads and the historical nature of New Jersey politics that generally finds Democratic candidates doing well down the stretch has no doubt boosted the embattled Governor in the polls. Rasmussen still has Christie leading the race 47-44% but the three-point spread is now within the margin of error and down from a seven-point Corzine deficit just two weeks ago.

It's still a nail-biter. Christopher Christie has never given up the lead,
but it's been getting slimmer and now it's a dead heat -- Maurice Carroll,
director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Negative perceptions of either major candidate persist. Governor Corzine is viewed unfavorably by 52% in New Jersey and favorably by just 45%. Chris Christie meanwhile does not fair much better with a 46-50% favorable to unfavorable split. 21% of Garden State voters say they would at least consider voting for third-party challenger Daggett at this point and a third of the electorate remains either undecided or willing to change their mind before Election Day, November 3rd.

The largest lead for Republican challenger Christie came back on July 14th when he measured a nine-point edge according to Quinnipiac. 27% of responders in that survey also claim they may change their mind on which candidate to support before entering the voting booth. The perception that Christopher Daggett may play a spoiler role in this race is evident by the 40-33% margin of current Daggett supporters who would otherwise have voted for Christie in a two-way race against Governor Corzine.

Chris Christie’s unfavorable rating now at 40% represents a new high according to the Quinnipiac poll. Jon Corzine fairs even worse with New Jersey voters with a 53% unfavorable but his 40% favorable is at a three-month high and up six-percentage points from September 30th. A clear majority of voters continue to disapprove of the way Corzine is handling his job as Governor but his numbers have improved somewhat in that area as well. Currently the Governor has a 39-56% approval to disapproval rating up modestly from a 34-60% split at the beginning of September.

One specific issue where Chris Christie may be losing ground is on taxes. While New Jersey voters have shown a preference towards the Republican challenger in this area throughout the campaign a plurality (35%) believe their taxes will go up even if he is elected. Governor Corzine struggles on this issue with 62% of voters believing their taxes will increase. With a sizable number of voters thinking things will stay about the same however, the key wedge issue Christie was aiming for may be rendered irrelevant.

Stay tuned for the exciting final twenty-days of polling from the New Jersey Gubernatorial campaign and see just how accurate the constant surveying proves to be.