Poll: Corbett retains lead in race for PA Governor, Gov. Christie gets positive early marks in NJ

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Tom Corbett is still the front runner in the race to become Pennsylvania’s next Governor. In neighboring New Jersey meanwhile fellow Republican Chris Christie gets a passing grade for his job performance through three months.

Today’s new poll release compliments of Rasmussen Reports shows State Attorney General Corbett holding a large lead over three other Democratic hopefuls. While Corbett’s numbers haven’t improved since last month’s polling the new figures indicate a lead of twenty-percentage points over Congressman Joe Hoeffel and a 21% advantage over State Auditor Jack Wagner. That said Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato appears to be gaining ground. Although he still trails Corbett 45-36% that figure is a marked improvement from March polling that saw him trailing 46-29% and a considerable bump from February when Rasmussen showed Onorato behind by a two-to-one margin, 52-26%.

Tom Corbett is viewed “very” favorably by 19% of Pennsylvanians with another 14% holding a “very” unfavorable opinion. Dan Onorato receives split support, 16-15%, from those with strong feelings. Joe Hoeffel and Jack Wagner meanwhile and mired in the negatives. Hoeffel’s very favorable to very unfavorable margin is 7-11% with Jack Wagner fairing even worse to the tune of a 5-11% split.

Moving the political spotlight from the Keystone State to the Garden State Rasmussen finds Governor Chris Christie off to a decent start with New Jersey voters. His approval to disapproval margin is a respectable 53-45%, a total that includes 32% who strongly approve and 30% who strongly disapprove of the job the Governor has done just three months in. There is a considerable party divide with 80% of Republicans and 64% of independents giving Christie positive marks but 70% of Democrats issuing an early failing grade.

Other New Jersey polling shows that well more than half of voters (57%) believe incumbents at all levels in the state should be defeated in the midterm elections this November. Locally speaking those figures are more evenly split with 31% of the opinion that their representative should be reelected against 32% who believe they should be defeated.

Chris Christie defeated the widely unpopular sitting Governor Jon Corzine last November in one of the more reliably Democratic states in the country. At the time he took office voters held a 57-35% favorable to unfavorable view of the new Governor meaning that despite his solid approval numbers at present they do represent something of a modest decline in popularity since January.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / MEL EVANS

Poll: New Jersey voters share opinions on a range of topics

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We wait to see what political implications will stem from President Obama’s major speech last night to the American public on Afghanistan. In the meantime let’s shift our attention from broad analysis of the United States to the Garden State.

A week ago Quinnipiac University completed a couple of surveys tracking the opinion of voters in New Jersey – their first releases since the Governor’s election earlier this month. Here is a list of ten of the more interesting findings from those polls.

1) Gov. Corzine’s approval falls to new low, state legislature highly unpopular as well

Three weeks past Jon Corzine’s loss to Republican Chris Christie in his bid for reelection the Governor's job approval level has fallen to a new low. Just 31% of New Jersey voters approve of the Governor’s performance against 59% who disapprove. Corzine has struggled mostly in thirty-percentiles all year and those low figures ultimately crushed his chances of winning a second term. His rating amongst Republicans is a nearly untraceable six-percent. Also at near record low approval is the NJ state legislature. Down seven-points from June just 21% give the Democratically controlled legislature high marks. This figure includes just 17% of independents and one in ten Republicans.

2) Approval for Senators Lautenberg and Menendez inches downward

Approval for New Jersey’s Senators continues to slide downward as well. Even virtual political institutions like Frank Lautenberg are beginning to feel the heat from a disgruntled electorate. Lautenberg has been a member of the U.S. Senate since first being elected in 1982 and is the second oldest member behind only fellow Democrat Robert Byrd of West Virginia. Lautenberg’s current approval rating of 40% represents a drop of seven-points since April and his disapproval (41%) is slightly higher for one of the first times in his political career. Bob Menendez approval has also fallen by five-points since April of this year and he currently sits with a 36-37% approval to disapproval margin.

3) President Obama’s approval ratings drop, stays consistent with national numbers

As has been tracked by any number of polls recently the drop in President Obama’s popularity over the past two months is also reflected by Quinnipiac’s recent survey of New Jersey. Currently Obama has a 51% approval rating with 42% disapproving of his job performance. Interestingly those figures are essentially identical to Gallup’s measurement of voters nationwide from just this morning. The President’s approval has dropped five-points from an August survey and is down from a high of 68% recorded in mid-June. Just as is the case in most states New Jersey voters give Obama low marks on his handling of health care and the situation in Afghanistan.

4) Governor Elect Christie’s favorables hold steady, unfavorables rising

Chris Christie’s narrow victory over Governor Corzine in the Gubernatorial Election earlier this month has not translated into an increase of popular support. Christie won’t take office until January of next year but as more voters in New Jersey become familiar with the Governor Elect his popularity seems to be holding steady while his unfavorable ratings begin to rise. In June the Quinnipiac survey measured Christie at a 36% favorable rating against 16% who held a negative opinion of the Republican candidate and a large 46% who had not as of yet formed an opinion. Currently Christie is holding steady at 36% favorability but the nine-point drop in those who have not heard enough about him has been added to equal the 25% who now view him negatively.

5) Most voters see New Jersey budget in a state of crisis

A record high number of voters in the Garden State are indicated as saying the current state budget problems are somewhat or very serious. Up a whopping sixteen-points from an August poll 83% now consider the state’s budget woes to be “very” serious. Another 14% claim it be at least “somewhat” of a problem meaning that concern over New Jersey’s state budget is by and large universal. It ought to be noted that New Jersey voters have consistently shown concern over their state’s budget in recent years. The most optimistic total gathered from Quinnipiac came in December of 2002 when 35% suggested the budget problems were very serious and another 51% claimed them to be at least somewhat serious.

6) Voters consistently oppose raising of taxes, but agree on where they should be raised

When asked how best to balance the state budget a large majority of voters (68%) would prefer to see government programs and services cut before their taxes are raised. Just 23% currently feel that the raising of taxes is the best way to deal with the current budget woes. This is lower but fairly consistent with polls from recent years. Three years ago just 29% wanted to see an increase in taxes. In the event that taxes must be raised however the political parties are mostly in agreement where the increases should be implemented. Support for the raising of tolls is most popular with 32% of independents and 31% of both Democrats and Republicans in New Jersey.

7) Majority of New Jersey voters are against providing school vouchers

New Jersey voters as a whole have somewhat switched their opinion on school vouchers. When asked if they would support providing parents with tax money for school vouchers to help pay for their children to attend private or religious schools 54% are opposed to the idea against 43% who favor it. This is an increase in opposition towards the voucher program from mid-2001 when Quinnipiac showed 50% of Garden State voters in favor of such a plan against just 43% who were opposed. A narrow majority of Republicans (52%) approve of vouchers, but just 36% of Democrats and 41% of independents agree. Debates on both the side of public education and taxes play a role in shaping of public opinion on the issue.

8) A narrow majority voters are in favor of expanding early childhood education

In a close “race” 51% of New Jersey voters feel there should be an expansion of state funded early childhood education – 45% are opposed to such a measure. This is a more partisan topic than school vouchers with 71% of Democrats in favor of expanding programs and 63% of Republicans opposed to the idea. Independents (48-48%) and men (47-47%) are evenly split on the issue. There is also a racial divide with an overwhelming majority (86%) of black voters favoring more dollars for early education against just 41% of white voters who feel the same. In the area of the state closely bordering Philadelphia a very narrow 50-47% divide favor and oppose more funding.

9) Most voters believe Supreme Court Justices should be chosen by their qualifications

Once in office Governor Chris Christie will select four state Supreme Court justices. A fairly narrow majority (54%) of New Jersey voters would prefer Christie to choose his justices based on their qualifications. Four in ten meanwhile would rather he place more emphasis on the views held by each judge on controversial social issues. Although surely the 49% of Republicans and 42% of Democrats who feel the new Governor should consider the issues differ on what issues are of most importance, this poll question is relatively non-partisan. 51% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans think qualifications are the more important factor when selecting a justice - 62% of independents agree.

10) Narrow plurality of New Jersey voters oppose same-sex marriage

A hot button issue nationally is a polarizing topic in the Garden State as well. Currently 46% of voters polled by Quinnipiac support same-sex marriage against 49% who are opposed. While independents at 49-45% support to opposition are split almost evenly on the topic voters from the two major parties are very much divided. Democrats favor same-sex marriage by a margin of 60-34% whereas Republicans (25-69%) are largely opposed. Liberals favor same-sex marriage by 71% with conservatives opposed to the tune of 74%. Younger voters age 18-34 (63%), those who make over $100,000 per-year (58%) and holding college degrees (55%) are most in favor. Conversely, older voters 55+ (37%), those making less than $50,000 (39%), and not having a college degree (41%) are least in favor.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / CHRISTOPHER BARTH

Poll: Continued pessimism in Pennsylvania, New Jersey not optimistic about new Governor

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A recent Franklin & Marshall poll surveying Pennsylvanians on a number of topics finds continued pessimism in the state. Rasmussen Reports meanwhile shows that six in ten in New Jersey were casting votes against Governor Corzine in his defeat last week. Below are some of the key findings from each survey.

1) Record high number of Pennsylvanians think state is headed in wrong direction

The latest Franklin & Marshall poll indicates just 32% of Pennsylvanians believe that things in their home state are heading in the right direction overall. 60% feel the Keystone State is on the wrong track. Just 8% of families consider themselves to be better off now than a year ago with 36% saying they are worse off and 55% feeling about the same. One bright note is the level of optimism being shared looking ahead a year. Although 50% of state residents think their financial situation will remain roughly the same a year from now, many more (31%) think they will be better off than those who feel they will be worse off (14%) by late-2010.

2) The recessions continues in the eyes of most Pennsylvanians and less money is being spent

In spite of certain economic indicators that suggest the United States has crawled out of its recession Pennsylvanians do not agree. Just 3% think the recession is over now and an additional 6% think it will end before the close of 2009. 30% are confident it will end next year with a whopping 57% of those polled are of the opinion that economic recovery is still several years away. The level of spending by Keystone State residents reflects the opinion many have of a prolonged recession. Just 8% say they are spending more money now than a year ago against 54% who are saving more and 37% who suggest there is no difference in their buying habits.

3) Governor Rendell’s favorability rating rebounds slightly, Specter struggling, Casey dips

The heads of state in Pennsylvania are all mired in the negatives. Governor Rendell has experienced a small turnaround from two months ago when he was embroiled in the state’s ongoing budget crisis. His favorable to unfavorable ratings at that time were a record low 32-53%. Rendell has rebounded somewhat since and currently stands at a 37%-47% favorable margin. Senator Arlen Specter meanwhile has plummeted to a new low with 28% of Pennsylvanians now holding a favorable view against some 46% who view him negatively. Senator Bob Casey has taken a hit as well in recent months. In August he stood at a 41% favorable, 18% unfavorable with 41% of Pennsylvanians undecided or not familiar enough with the politician. Casey now sits at 32-21-47% margin.

4) President Obama’s favorability drops, Joe Sestak and pat Toomey remain largely unknown

President Obama’s favorability rating has dropped ten-points from the previous Franklin & Marshall poll from August. At the same time the number of those claiming to be uncertain of their feelings towards the President has increased eight-points. Currently Obama’s favorable to unfavorable rating stands at 45-39% with 16% of state residents either uncertain or not knowing. Current Congressman and 2010 Senate candidates Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey continue to fly under the radar meanwhile. 77% claim to be unfamiliar with Sestak, strangely a higher number than recorded in the last poll. Toomey goes essentially unrecognized by 64% of Pennsylvanians virtually holding steady from last month.

5) Specter’s lead over Sestak shrinks, narrowly out in front of Toomey

Still nearly a year to go but the Pennsylvania Senate saga continues with each ensuing poll. Arlen Specter continues to lead Congressman Joe Sestak by twelve in the state’s upcoming primary battle but his 30-18% margin is far less that the 37-11% lead recorded in August. 47% of Pennsylvania Democrats remain undecided, a number that is holding steady from recent polls. Specter also leads Republican challenger Pat Toomey by just two-points (33-31%) down from an eight-point lead in August. Toomey scores better against Sestak as well than in recent polling. His lead on the 7th District Congressman has grown to 28-20%, up from a more modest 26-22% advantage registered two and a half months ago.

6) Democrats and Republicans narrowly divided, state legislature heavily unpopular

Some questions being asked of Pennsylvanians in this poll indicates a narrow 37-34% lead for Democratic Party candidates in the state when the upcoming House elections are discussed. Keystone State residents are divided in their perceptions between what they feel about the state at large and how they feel about their own district. By a 44-30% margin a plurality would like to see their specific candidate in Harrisburg reelected next year. When asked about the state House of Representatives in general however just 24% would like to see “most” of the members reelected in the next election. The state legislate meanwhile is mired with terrible ratings. Just 15% feel the body is doing a good or excellent job against 78% who think they have performed only fair or poorly.

7) In New Jersey most voters see Christie’s success as a result of pessimism towards Corzine

60% of those from the Garden State say that most of Republican Chris Christie’s support in his victory for Governor came from votes cast by disenfranchised voters against Jon Corzine. Just 22% think that Christie won due to his popularity with the electorate and an additional 18% remain uncertain. These numbers are according to a just released survey from Rasmussen Reports. Broken down to specifics 45% of voters claim Christie was elected specifically as a rejection of Governor Corzine’s job performance. Another 27% suggest that the state’s economy was the main reason with an additional 16% claiming a desire for change was on the horizon.

8) Voters give Christie modest approval but have mixed feelings about the likelihood of his success as Governor

Chris Christie is viewed favorably by 49% of New Jersey voters, 47% hold an unfavorable opinion of the Governor elect. A similar number (49%) think the first order of business for Christie as Governor is to cut state taxes. Voters are not particularly optimistic of the new Governor’s chances of fulfilling campaign promises however. The Rasmussen survey indicates a large number (86%) of voters do not think Christie can deliver working with the Democratic-controlled state Senate and assembly. By a margin of 54-40% most in New Jersey also feel that Christie will not be able to improve the state’s economy. One positive area of expectations is the 51% who think Christie can effectively crack down on corruption as promised.

Photo Credit: Associted Press / Mel Evans

Corzine or Christie? Predicting who will win New Jersey Governor in fifteen questions

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With so many polls and talking heads in the media covering the upcoming New Jersey Governor’s election perhaps it’s now time to place some odds and make some predictions.

As mentioned the other day on this site there is a wide range of polling on the issue. Depending on what source and whose numbers you choose to believe Governor Corzine could be primed for reelection or doomed to defeat. The consensus is that this race is locked in a virtual dead-heat with no clear frontrunner. Pollster.com has things exactly even with both Jon Corzine and challenger Chris Christie tied at 42%. Other publications like Survey USA and Quinnipiac seem to be showing a small rebound in Christie’s number over the weekend from polls taken last week that showed the Governor with the advantage. A Monmouth University poll on the other hand is registering some late game movement for Corzine.

Nate Silver from fivethirtyeight.com has been following the coverage closely. Silver poses fifteen “clarifying” questions on the topic of the race for Governor with the purpose of getting a better idea of who in fact is primed to win the race regardless of poll numbers or figures lying therein. You are encouraged to view Silver's thoughts on tomorrow’s election in full here but below is an overview.

1) Which Candidate’s Supporters are more enthusiastic? Significant Edge: Christie

2) Which candidate is liable to have the better turnout operation? Significant Edge: Corzine

3) Is one of the candidates a challenger to an incumbent, who might benefit from the “incumbent rule”? Significant Edge: Christie

4) Do the demographics of the undecided vote, or the weakly-attached third-party vote, favor either of the candidates? Edge: Corzine

5) Which candidate got the more favorable coverage in the morning newspaper, or on the local evening news, on the Sunday before the election? Toss-up

6) Which candidate has the better “elevator pitch”, particularly as encapsulated by the commercials they've run in the 48 hours before the election? Edge: Christie

7) Which candidate has a headwind at their back from the national political environment, or has a message that squares better with the national political mood? Which candidate's party is liable to have the better Election Night nationwide? Edge: Christie

8) Does either candidate begin with a built-in lead from early or absentee voting? Edge: Corzine

9) Which candidate, if any, stands to benefit from upballot or downballot races? Slight Edge: Christie

10) Which candidate stands to benefit from cellphone-only voters, who may not be included in the polls? Slight Edge: Corzine

11) Has the polling in previous elections in the state, or in similar elections in similar states, tended systematically to underestimate the performance of either candidate's party? Toss-up

12) Which candidate attracted more people to their campaign appearances in the state over the last two weeks of the campaign? Slight Edge: Corzine

13) Which candidate got more contributions over the last six weeks of the campaign from voters within the state? Significant Edge: Christie

14) Which candidate has run the more positive, optimistic campaign, and will leave voters feeling better about themselves as they exit the polling place? Edge: Christie

15) Which candidate's party controls the state's electoral and judicial apparatus, in the event of a recount or otherwise disputed election? Significant Edge: Corzine

Silver’s final scorecard tally is then adjusted to reflect not only which candidate won the majority of questions/categories but to what extent. If we were to allocate a number to each description it would wind up with three-points being distributed to either candidate with a “significant edge” in a category, two-points for a basic “edge” and one-point for a “slight edge”. The two questions being rated as “toss-up” categories using Silver’s description would simply give zero points to either candidate.

This brings us to a 16-12 Chris Christie lead over Governor Corzine as we are less than 24-hours from Election Day. Broken down further we can claim Christie as a 4:3 favorite in the race or estimate that he has about a 57% chance of becoming New Jersey’s next Governor.

"Obviously, anybody's race, but I'd make Christie about the 4:3 favorite. If Christie wins, it will probably be because of greater enthusiasm among his voters and a slightly more well-rounded close to his campaign. If Corzine wins, it will probably be because of his institutional and organizational advantages in getting his base to the polls." -- Nate Silver, Fivethirtyeight.com

Polls divided in New Jersey, race for Governor remains a toss-up

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And down the stretch they come…

In less than four days droves of New Jersey residents will head to their local precincts and cast their vote for Governor. For months the race between sitting Governor Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie has grabbed local headlines and peaked interest nationally. The possible bellwether effect being touted by many media pundits will render its first high profile success story or failure for either party this Tuesday November 3rd.

As this election directly relates to the outcome of the impending 2010 midterms will stay unknown for quite some time. Both parties however will surely celebrate a victory and tout it as a sign of things to come. A Christie victory will be the first big step on the road to recovery for a banged up GOP. An upset from vulnerable incumbent Corzine will allow Democrats to drive home the perception that while 2009 has been a shaky year they remain the stronger party.

The last and most important round of polling will be conducted early next week, for now we see some varying results that point to an increasingly tight race.

Real Clear Politics is a useful resource in that it averages out the totals from several recent polls on any number of topics. In the instance of this NJ Governor’s race six major polls have been released over the past week. The cumulative effect shows a narrow lead for Governor Corzine averaging out to 41.8 – 40.5% margin of victory. Independent candidate Christopher Daggett runs a respectable third taking in eleven-percent of the vote.

The problem is not every poll is created equal. Even if the methods used by all polls were both accurate and consistent to one another the relative size of the survey would also play a factor. Far and away the two largest of the six surveys being captured by RCP are from the reliable polling organizations Rasmussen Reports and Quinnipiac Uniersity. What is interesting then is the disparity between these two polls. Rasmussen has Republican Christie clinging to a 46-43% lead in the race for Governor with Chris Daggett falling further behind at 8%. Quinnipiac on the other hand polling 1,267 likely voters in New Jersey now projects a 43-38% lead for Governor Corzine and Daggett at 13% of the vote also scoring with greater impact.

Any number of reasons could explain the eight-point swing gathered between both polls. Looking at each of Corzine and Christie’s favorability ratings is one such indication. According to Rasmussen Governor Corzine has a 44-54% favorable to unfavorable split with New Jersey voters. Chris Christie meanwhile is at 48% and 50% respectively. The Quinnipiac survey meanwhile has Corzine at a 41-52% margin and challenger Christie lagging at a 37-42% figure. With voters in the Garden State as narrowly divided between both challengers as the polls indicate it stands to reason that most will cast their vote for the candidate they simply dislike less.

If the differences between the results from recent Rasmussen and Quinnipiac surveys didn’t already leave plenty of gray area other pollsters show a range of figures as well. A Suffolk University survey gathering data from just 400 likely voters and a staggeringly high number of self-described independents shows Corzine with a nine-point lead. The latest Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of 600 likely voters fits Chris Christie with narrow 42-41% lead. Survey USA who does well with their sampling but asks some curiously odd questions like; “What is your favorite NFL team” and “Are you a Bruce Springsteen fan” has the race locked in a 43-43% dead-heat. Fairleigh Dickinson polling nearly 700-likely voters has Christie inching his way out to a narrow 41-39% lead with two in ten New Jersey voters going for either independent Chris Daggett or some other candidate.

With the race for New Jersery Governor having reached the back stretch two things seem clear in regards to polling. First is that most agree the heated campaign is also a very tight one and could be decided by just a few thousand votes on Election Day. Secondly is that in spite of the closeness being portrayed there is no consensus on a likely winner. Some polling organizations will have clear bragging rights with others wiping the egg off of their faces next Tuesday.

Poll: New Jersey Governor's race now a toss-up

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After many months of trailing in the polls Governor Jon Corzine has essentially caught up.

With just weeks to go in the race for New Jersey Governor the incumbent Democrat has been thrust into a virtual toss-up against Republican challenger Chris Christie. These are latest findings from both Quinnipiac and Rasmussen measuring the preference of likely voters in the Garden State.

As reported here two weeks ago in conjunction with Quinnipiac’s previous survey Christie’s lead had shrunk to four-points, 43-39%. Now the latest poll finds a statistically insignificant one-percentage point lead for the Republican challenger, 41-40%. At 14% New Jersey voters are also recording their highest level of preference yet for independent candidate Christopher Daggett.

Months of attack ads and the historical nature of New Jersey politics that generally finds Democratic candidates doing well down the stretch has no doubt boosted the embattled Governor in the polls. Rasmussen still has Christie leading the race 47-44% but the three-point spread is now within the margin of error and down from a seven-point Corzine deficit just two weeks ago.

It's still a nail-biter. Christopher Christie has never given up the lead,
but it's been getting slimmer and now it's a dead heat -- Maurice Carroll,
director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Negative perceptions of either major candidate persist. Governor Corzine is viewed unfavorably by 52% in New Jersey and favorably by just 45%. Chris Christie meanwhile does not fair much better with a 46-50% favorable to unfavorable split. 21% of Garden State voters say they would at least consider voting for third-party challenger Daggett at this point and a third of the electorate remains either undecided or willing to change their mind before Election Day, November 3rd.

The largest lead for Republican challenger Christie came back on July 14th when he measured a nine-point edge according to Quinnipiac. 27% of responders in that survey also claim they may change their mind on which candidate to support before entering the voting booth. The perception that Christopher Daggett may play a spoiler role in this race is evident by the 40-33% margin of current Daggett supporters who would otherwise have voted for Christie in a two-way race against Governor Corzine.

Chris Christie’s unfavorable rating now at 40% represents a new high according to the Quinnipiac poll. Jon Corzine fairs even worse with New Jersey voters with a 53% unfavorable but his 40% favorable is at a three-month high and up six-percentage points from September 30th. A clear majority of voters continue to disapprove of the way Corzine is handling his job as Governor but his numbers have improved somewhat in that area as well. Currently the Governor has a 39-56% approval to disapproval rating up modestly from a 34-60% split at the beginning of September.

One specific issue where Chris Christie may be losing ground is on taxes. While New Jersey voters have shown a preference towards the Republican challenger in this area throughout the campaign a plurality (35%) believe their taxes will go up even if he is elected. Governor Corzine struggles on this issue with 62% of voters believing their taxes will increase. With a sizable number of voters thinking things will stay about the same however, the key wedge issue Christie was aiming for may be rendered irrelevant.

Stay tuned for the exciting final twenty-days of polling from the New Jersey Gubernatorial campaign and see just how accurate the constant surveying proves to be.

Poll: Corzine still trails Christie in New Jersey Governor's race

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With less than a month and a half remaining in the New Jersey Governor’s race incumbent Jon Corzine simply isn’t picking up ground quickly enough on Republican challenger Chris Christie.

Residents of the greater Philadelphia area as well as national pundits continue to follow this race closely. It has been suggested that an off-election year race for Governor serves as something of a barometer to what sort of political tide we can expect to see in 2010 and beyond. If that is indeed the case the Democrats might want to rethink their game plan, for a Republican has not won a statewide election in New Jersey since 1997 and according to the latest Rasmussen poll the Democratic Governor trails 48-41%.

This figure actually represents a slight, if statistically insignificant improvement for Corzine from a previous Rasmussen’s poll released earlier this month showed him trailing his Republican challenger by eight percentage-points. Independent Chris Daggett who recently placed a humorous TV ad lampooning both major-party candidates never the less is struggling to make his mark in the race, attracting just 6% of the vote.

For Christie the 48% of support he is receiving from Garden State voters means of course that he is still under the 50% threshold and not exactly running away with the race. Christie’s popularity peaked a month ago when Rasmussen indicated that the former U.S. Attorney and prosecutor led 50-42%. More recently a poll pegged him at just 46% of the vote but more importantly his lead of seven or eight points over that span has remained in tact.

Governor Corzine meanwhile can’t seem to budge the overall negative perceptions New Jersey residents have of him in spite of a barrage of television spots over the past several weeks. Just 38% of voters in the Garden State approve of his job performance against 61% who do not. Almost identical to that and also critically low for an incumbent at this point in a campaign season is his personal favorability mired at a 39-60% positive to negative split. Not that Christie is wildly popular either as his 48-46% favorable to unfavorable margin attests. But more than anything this election is being played up as a referendum on the policies of incumbent Governor Corzine.

New Jersey is a left-leaning state and as Rasmussen points out Democrats traditionally close strong even with their poll numbers lagging late in races. The presence of independent Chris Daggett, while not a threat to win never the less presents a problem for Corzine however. Eight-percent of Democrats plan to cast their vote for Daggett against just 2% of Republicans who suggest they are defecting. If Corzine was simply able to close that margin of six-points between the third-party support being offered by Democrats and Republicans this race would be a virtual dead-heat.

As it stands we will continue to watch this race as it heads into the back stretch. No lack of fanfare should be expected regardless of the result. If Christie wins it will be viewed by Republicans as a comeback for the party and an important step in their quest to take back power in 2010 – or at least close the gap considerably. On the flip side if Corzine pulls off what now has to be labeled an upset it will too be viewed, this time by Democrats, as a comeback and important step in stabilizing the current balance of power.

Poll: Gov. Corzine still trails in New Jersey, but by how much?

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Depending on what poll you are looking at the highly conspicuous New Jersey race for Governor may either be tightening, widening or staying about the same. As we head into mid-September a couple of recent polls shed some light on the current state of affairs in this Garden State showdown.

Two surveys from Quinnipiac and Rasmussen describe a race from differing perspectives using similar numbers. The Quinnipiac poll for starters now has Republican challenger Chris Christie ahead of New Jersey Governor John Corzine 47-37% with independent Christopher Daggett pulling in nine-percent of likely voters. This points to the possibility of a failed attack ad campaign from the Governor and a widening race overall. Last month Christie’s lead over Corzine was pitted at a more modest six-point gap, 46-40%.

Rasmussen meanwhile has the spread at eight-percentage points with the challenger leading 46-38%, 6% for Daggett and one in ten New Jersey voters remaining undecided. As the race heads toward the home stretch it seems that voters are growing less certain of either candidate. Christie’s eight-point lead in the Rasmussen poll remains steady from a month ago, but both candidates have shown a drop of four-percentages points from a 50-42% race in August. Furthermore Rasmussen points to a gap that may in fact be closing in favor of Governor Corzine. When “leaners” are added to the mix Chris Christie’s lead is down to just four-points.

At 42% the Republican challenger has seen a six-point drop in the number of those with a favorable view of him. Governor Corzine meanwhile has jumped nearly ten-percentage points over the past month to a 45% favorable rating. Corzine’s unfavorables however remain considerably higher.

Moving our attention back to the Quinnipiac survey we see that while Governor Corzine does have improving numbers amongst Democratic voters the 74-15% split he has with his own party is far worse than the 86-8% support Christie receives from Republicans. While there is still the possibly for Corzine to cultivate grater support within his party it seems clear the independent vote is where he is losing this race. Christie’s lead amongst such voters is 46-30% over the Governor with 16% going to Daggett in a possible role of spoiler.

The launching of attack ads from Corzine-camp has proven to be relatively ineffective, just as Christie’s criticisms of the Governor have failed to gain much traction. A plurality of voters (49-43%) finds it unfair that Corzine attacks Christie for his loan to a former associate in the U.S. Attorney’s office. By a margin of 47-45% most feel unmerited criticism of Governor Corzine’s relationship with a former labor leader. There is an even 47-47% split meanwhile of those considering Christie’s attacks on the Governor’s failure to guard against New Jersey’s economic collapse to be warranted.

"Just about everyone has seen Gov. Jon Corzine's TV ads knocking Christopher Christie's ties to the Bush team, but most question whether it's a legitimate issue. “Unfair” they say…The Democratic attacks about Christie's loan to his former co-worker score a little higher. Christie gets a split on his ads criticizing Corzine for failing to protect New Jersey against the economic downturn." -- Maurice Carroll / Quinnipiac University Polling Institute Director

What is interesting when reviewing the figures released by both of these surveys is how they differ on topic of each candidate’s approval rating. The Rasmussen poll shows Governor Corzine with a 40% approval rating amongst New Jersey voters but Quinnipiac has his number considerably lower at 34%. The numbers for Christie meanwhile are nearly identical between the two polls but Rasmussen shows a decline in support for the Republican whereas Quinnipiac

No Republican has won a statewide race in New Jersey since 1997. The political climate in the Garden State favors a possible GOP takeover in 2010, but if in fact the numbers for Corzine closely mirror those found in the Rassmussen survey the possibility of a tight race heading into the homestretch could be likely. That said, with the incumbent Governor in all likelihood trailing and short on time to catch up the next batch of October polling could reveal the eventual winner in New Jersey.

Poll: Christie leads Corzine by double-digits in New Jersey

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After two months worth of heavy campaigning and fierce attacks aimed at his opponent New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine is essentially back to where he began.

A new Rasmussen poll has Corzine trailing Republican nominee Chris Christie by a margin of 50-37%. The thirteen-point spread shows a widening gap between the two candidates and comes as unpleasant news to the sitting Democratic Governor who seemed to be on the rebound just a month ago.

As previously reported here in the beginning of July, Governor Corzine had begun to close the gap between he and his Republican opponent. Rasmussen Reports showed that Corzine was trailing Christie by seven percentage points – a deficit to be certain but not an impossible hole to dig out of. The now current thirteen-point lead for Chris Christie holds steady when “leaners” are included and the margin remains unchanged from initial polls taken back in June after he secured the Republican nomination.

Not surprisingly 84% of New Jersey Republicans now support Christie’s campaign for Governor. The truly disastrous numbers for Corzine however are that only 64% of Democrats favor the sitting Governor and Christie leads by a whopping 45-points amongst "unaffiliated" voters. Rasmussen poll numbers also indicate that Corzine’s approval rating with New Jersey voters has dropped to 37%. President Obama who has been called upon to stump for the embattled Governor still has a 56% approval rating in New Jersey, but now only 38% of Garden State residents think Obama’s campaigning will actually boost Corzine’s chances of victory in the fall.

The Rasmussen sample of 500-voters remains relatively small and even they point to historical trends that have shown Democratic politicians in New Jersey rebounding late in campaign seasons. That said major publications like Time magazine were quick to jump on the bad news in a recent issue pointing to the “re-election woes” for Corzine. Furthermore a host of other polls show similarly grim numbers for the Democratic Governor.

Research 2000/Daily Kos figures have Christie leading 48-40% and Corzine’s approval rating buried at 35%. Monmouth University meanwhile shows the Republican challenger leading by fourteen-points amongst likely voters. Public Policy Polling reflected those totals and closely mirrored the Rasmussen survey by showing Christie with a 50-36% lead over New Jersey Governor Corzine.

Perhaps it is premature to call the race a long shot for the sitting Governor. After all, Democrats outnumber Republicans by fourteen-points in New Jersey and the large block of unaffiliated voters (46%) tends to lean poitically left in the Garden State. Still with less than three months remaining until Election Day its safe to say the Corzine Campaign is trending down if not out.