Polls divided in New Jersey, race for Governor remains a toss-up

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And down the stretch they come…

In less than four days droves of New Jersey residents will head to their local precincts and cast their vote for Governor. For months the race between sitting Governor Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie has grabbed local headlines and peaked interest nationally. The possible bellwether effect being touted by many media pundits will render its first high profile success story or failure for either party this Tuesday November 3rd.

As this election directly relates to the outcome of the impending 2010 midterms will stay unknown for quite some time. Both parties however will surely celebrate a victory and tout it as a sign of things to come. A Christie victory will be the first big step on the road to recovery for a banged up GOP. An upset from vulnerable incumbent Corzine will allow Democrats to drive home the perception that while 2009 has been a shaky year they remain the stronger party.

The last and most important round of polling will be conducted early next week, for now we see some varying results that point to an increasingly tight race.

Real Clear Politics is a useful resource in that it averages out the totals from several recent polls on any number of topics. In the instance of this NJ Governor’s race six major polls have been released over the past week. The cumulative effect shows a narrow lead for Governor Corzine averaging out to 41.8 – 40.5% margin of victory. Independent candidate Christopher Daggett runs a respectable third taking in eleven-percent of the vote.

The problem is not every poll is created equal. Even if the methods used by all polls were both accurate and consistent to one another the relative size of the survey would also play a factor. Far and away the two largest of the six surveys being captured by RCP are from the reliable polling organizations Rasmussen Reports and Quinnipiac Uniersity. What is interesting then is the disparity between these two polls. Rasmussen has Republican Christie clinging to a 46-43% lead in the race for Governor with Chris Daggett falling further behind at 8%. Quinnipiac on the other hand polling 1,267 likely voters in New Jersey now projects a 43-38% lead for Governor Corzine and Daggett at 13% of the vote also scoring with greater impact.

Any number of reasons could explain the eight-point swing gathered between both polls. Looking at each of Corzine and Christie’s favorability ratings is one such indication. According to Rasmussen Governor Corzine has a 44-54% favorable to unfavorable split with New Jersey voters. Chris Christie meanwhile is at 48% and 50% respectively. The Quinnipiac survey meanwhile has Corzine at a 41-52% margin and challenger Christie lagging at a 37-42% figure. With voters in the Garden State as narrowly divided between both challengers as the polls indicate it stands to reason that most will cast their vote for the candidate they simply dislike less.

If the differences between the results from recent Rasmussen and Quinnipiac surveys didn’t already leave plenty of gray area other pollsters show a range of figures as well. A Suffolk University survey gathering data from just 400 likely voters and a staggeringly high number of self-described independents shows Corzine with a nine-point lead. The latest Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of 600 likely voters fits Chris Christie with narrow 42-41% lead. Survey USA who does well with their sampling but asks some curiously odd questions like; “What is your favorite NFL team” and “Are you a Bruce Springsteen fan” has the race locked in a 43-43% dead-heat. Fairleigh Dickinson polling nearly 700-likely voters has Christie inching his way out to a narrow 41-39% lead with two in ten New Jersey voters going for either independent Chris Daggett or some other candidate.

With the race for New Jersery Governor having reached the back stretch two things seem clear in regards to polling. First is that most agree the heated campaign is also a very tight one and could be decided by just a few thousand votes on Election Day. Secondly is that in spite of the closeness being portrayed there is no consensus on a likely winner. Some polling organizations will have clear bragging rights with others wiping the egg off of their faces next Tuesday.