Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Poll: Opposition to health care reform drops, Americans still divided

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The slowly beating heart of health care reform just received a shot of adrenaline from three new polls released this week. While it’s too soon to suggest that the Democratic proposals for reform have rebounded to the point of a full upward climb this recent bounce tracked by no less than three major pollsters is noteworthy.

This morning the new AP-GFK survey shows that an even number of Americans (40-40%) supporting and opposing the health care reform plans being discussed by Congress. This is a rather dramatic improvement from a month ago when that same survey indicated that just 34% supported the plan against 49% who were opposed. Rasmussen Reports mirrors those findings tracking the issue weekly. While still in the negative the 46% of those favoring and 50% of those opposed is up from a 41-56% low point measured just a week and a half ago.

Past Gallup surveys have tended to show less resistance from the American public toward President Obama and Congressional Democrats’ reform proposals. Still there is a modest bounce even from their last poll on the topic. Asking adults whether they’d recommend their local representative vote for a reform bill 40% are shown to be in favor against 36% who are now opposed and 25% without an opinion. This is up modestly from a 38-40-22% split measured three weeks earlier. When party “leaners” are taking into consideration opposition to health care reform is now firmly in the minority with just 41% saying they would tell their representatives to vote against and 51% favoring a “yay” vote.

Moving the attention back to the AP-GFK survey, 46% of Americans now claim health care to be an extremely important issue. For President Obama there has been an improvement as well. Obama gets the first positive marks he has received on his handling of the issue since mid-July with 48% approving against 47% who still disapprove. The elderly in particular have shown a marked increase in their support for a plan, up sixteen-points from the last AP poll.

Americans seem to have conflicting opinions when it comes to the necessity of bipartisan cooperation between the two major parties on the issue. Up six-points from a month ago 62% think a bill supported by both Democrats and Republicans in Congress is important. Also up six-points from a month ago however are the number of those (34%) who think President Obama and Democrats should move ahead in their desire to pass a bill even without Republican support.

The divide between parties is still as evident as it has been in recent surveys. Gallup indicates that 66% of Democrats would advise their member of congress to vote for a bill but just 16% of Republicans would do the same. According to Rasmussen 78% of Democrats favor a the new plan but that number is essentially flipped with eight in ten Republicans opposed to the reform bill. Both polls show considerably more political independents opposed to health care reform than in favor of it meaning President Obama and his allies in Congress still have a long way to go on the issue.

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