Analysis: With sagging approval ratings what will passage of health care bill mean for Obama?

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So long as the topic of health care continues to dominate the headlines President Obama will likely find his job approval rating in intensive care.

Sunday’s crucial House vote on the current sweeping legislation will come at a time when the President’s popularity is at a new low according to certain polls. After hovering around the 50% plateau for several months Obama has suddenly fallen below the threshold. Real Clear Politics which combines the averages of several recent surveys shows the President’s approval, for the first time, dropping in the negatives.

Rasmussen Reports which has provided the White House with particularly bearish ratings for many months now currently pegs Obama’s popularity at just 45% with 55% disapproving of his performance. Fox News also has the President in the negatives to the tune of a 46-48% margin. While he is still on the plus side in polls from Pew Research and NBC News/Wall Street Journal, both publications show his job approval at under 50%. Only an Associated Press survey conducted earlier this month provides the President with some measure of good news positing him with a 53-46% approval to disapproval rating.

Perhaps the most notable new release comes from Gallup. As of yesterday the highly regarded organization places Obama’s numbers in the negatives for the first time. 46% of American adults now approve of the President’s job performance against 48% who disapprove. Factoring in these results with the other aforementioned polls, a combination of adults, registered voters and likely voter samples, the average for Obama is a meager 47.3% approval rating against 47.8% who disapprove.

It seems clear that the health care issue is the main culprit in President Obama’s sagging popularity. The latest Rasmussen polling indicates a sizeable majority of American voters lining up against the Democratic reform measures. 53% are opposed to the new legislation with 43% in favor of its passage. Fox News echoes those findings but measures even stronger cries of opposition coming from the public. According to their most recent findings just 35% favor the current legislation against 55% who are opposed. While a marginal improvement from January President Obama’s handling of the health care issue receives largely negative marks adults surveyed by NBC News. 41% approve of his handling of the issue and 57% disapprove. Ditto those findings from the most recent Pew poll that show the President at a 39-52% approval to disapproval margin on the subject.

Gallup chose to breakdown the opinions of Americans based on separate categories. The most positive area for Obama comes with the 59-22% margin of the public who feel that those currently without health insurance coverage will be better served under the new bill against those who believe they will be worse off. Lower income families in general are also perceived to be in better shape as a result of health care reform by a margin of 56-29%. Beyond that all other categories get a decidedly negative response from the American public. This includes the country as a whole that will be worse off in the opinion of 44% and better off by just 39% of responders. Pharmaceutical companies (41-34%), middle-income families (44-34%), hospitals (42-33%), doctors (45-29%), you and your family (37-28%), health insurances companies (51-26%), and upper-income families (33-22%) follow suit.

President Obama has been quoted as suggesting the life of his Presidency hinges on the success or failure of the health care reform bill. In spite of a recent injection of adrenaline from a couple of high ranking Democratic congressman and the blessing of a group of catholic nuns, it seems most Americans have both made up their mind on health care and will continue to give Obama low marks as long as it remains the top issue he focuses on. The President probably faces one of three scenarios in the event he receives a legislative victory for passage of the bill through Congress;

1) Despite the unpopularity of the bill and Obama’s sagging approval with the American public passage will finally get the topic off the table, at least temporarily. The President will then be able to focus on other priorities and perhaps craft a more populist message on issues that will help him rebound in the polls as we draw ever close to the midterm elections. With the notoriously short attention span of the American public simply switching gears is often a perfect remedy for an ailing Presidency.

2) Yes a majority of Americans disagree with the President sweeping health care legislation but there are potential gains to be made if the bill is passed on two fronts. First it will energize Democrats, most of whom are already strongly supportive of reform. Secondly, for the millions of wavering moderates and independents passage will at least show some measure of strong leadership on the part of the President. While many will continue to disagree with Obama on the issue itself, a Commander in Chief who is viewed as strong and decisive even in the face of scrutiny is someone who generally gains grudging respect from an American public always supportive of strong leadership.

3) Passage will be the final nail in the coffin for Obama and Democrats, at least for the rest of 2010 and perhaps up through 2012 as well. Without the passage of health care reform Obama still has something of a “get out of jail free” card to play. Ramming through the current legislation however will convince conservatives that the President’s character and liberal agenda must be attacked mercilessly. The formation of an even stronger movement than that of the “Tea Party” will come about rallying around smaller government issues and fiscal responsibility. Republicans in Congress meanwhile, with the prospects of already larger numbers come 2011, will unify against Obama and the Democrats derailing most of the President’s legislation from now until the end of his first-term.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Martinez Monsivais

Poll: Obama begins 2010 with an even number approving and disapproving of his job performance

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Quinnipiac’s first national poll of 2010 was released today. Serving as something of a report card for the 111^th Congress and President Obama’s first year in office below are some of the key findings.

1) President Obama enters 2010 with voters evenly split on his job performance.

Suffering another small drop in recent polling Barack Obama ends his first year with a 45-45% approval to disapproval rating among registered voters polled by Quinnipiac. Two previous polls showed the President at 46% and his positives running slightly ahead of negatives. Back in June his approval rating was 59% with just 31% disapproving. The President is backed by 81% of Democrats and just 16% of Republicans. Those numbers are fairly consistent according to polling in recent months but his declining popularity with independents (42-48%) is enough to drag down his overall figures.

2) Democrats in Congress hold steady with low approval from voters.

Although their decline in numbers seems to have leveled off Democrats in control of Congress continue to receive poor ratings from voters on their job performance. Same as last month just 32% of voters approve and 59% disapprove of the way Democrats in Congress have been handling their jobs. Strikingly similar are ratings for the Republicans Party. Showing a slight increase in approval from December voters are split 32-58% on the performance of the minority party. Perhaps generating some momentum these current numbers are also an improvement from a 25-64% low the GOP received in early-October.

3) Fewer than three in ten Americans remain satisfied with current state of nation.

One of the more consistent polling categories in recent months has measured the satisfaction Americans have with the way things are going on their country overall. Although noticeably higher from all-time lows set in November of 2008 just 27% of Americans currently claim satisfaction. That includes just two-percent who are “very” satisfied against 44% who are very dissatisfied. Overall solid pluralities of Democrats (49%) remain satisfied with their party in power – 48% of self-described liberals agree with that sentiment. Just 15% of both Republicans and Conservatives meanwhile claim to be satisfied with the way things are going in America.

4) Obama’s handling of the economy slips back to early-December lows

After a small bounce in approval received just before Christmas President Obama has matched his worst approval ratings to date in his handling of the economy. By a 51-44% margin most Americans disapprove of the President’s efforts. While Democrats (77%) are generally supportive and Republicans (17%) mostly critical Obama’s overall numbers are dragged down by a poor 34-61% approval to disapproval margin he receives from the key block of independent voters. Those middle-aged 35-54 year olds are most critical of the President with just 35% approving of his handling of the economy. Moderates (47-46%) are almost evenly split.

5) Americans remain closely divided on Obama’s foreign policy

45% of Americans approve of President Obama’s handling of foreign policy – 46% disapprove. These totals closely mirror his ratings from December that showed a 46% approval, indicate a modest decline from his 49% rating in mid-November and do not point toward any sort of bump since the announcement of his military plans for Afghanistan. 72% of liberals approval of the President’s handling of the issue but just 21% of independents also approve. Moderates meanwhile supply Obama with a modest bump as they approve by a 55-37% margin.

6) Health care continues to be a drag on the President’s popularity

President Obama continues to struggle on the topic of health care as a majority of Americans disapprove of his handling of the issue. At present just 35% of Americans approve of Obama’s handling, that’s a three-percent drop from last month and down nine-percent fro early-July. 70% of Democrats still approve of the President’s handling of the issue but less than one in ten Republicans (9%) share in that sentiment. Furthermore independents who could prove to be the key group on health care is strongly against the President with more than twice as many (63%) disapproving than approving.

7) President Obama’s approval rating on other topics

As many people approve as disapprove of the President on the issue of Afghanistan 45-45%. On the topic of job creation recently unspectacular figures on unemployment have contributed to a slight drop on Obama’s figures that currently stand at just 34% with 58% disapproving. 48% of the public meanwhile approves of the President handling of terrorism even in the wake of growing threats. Overall an even number of the public considers Obama’s first year in office a success and failure, 45-45%. Slightly more believe the country to be better off now with Obama as President (37%) than if McCain had won the election in November of 2008. Furthermore when compared to his predecessor George W. Bush 43% believe Obama has done a better a job against 30% who believe he has been worse and 23% bout the same.

AP PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Charles Dharapak

Health care reform: Polling the reasons for support, opposition and understanding of the issue

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Senate Democrats are finally on the verge of passing health care reform legislation. With every Democratic, including two left-leaning independents, in favor and all forty Republicans in opposition the bill is expected to be signed into law by President Obama prior to Christmas day.

It will be interesting to see what effect the passage of the bill has on the perceptions of the American public as we keep a watchful eye on new polls emerging in the coming days. Most polls at present show considerable majorities against the current version of the bill. Recently released surveys from Rasmussen Reports and CNN/Opinion Research indicate the level of support is mired in the lower 40-percentiles with opposition reaching up to the mid and high-50s.

The Kaiser Family Foundation recently chimed in on the state of health care with a survey of over 1,200 randomly selected samples. Their elaborate charts have been tracking support and opposition on any number of issues since mid-February.

Kaiser reports 54% want health care reform immediately. That is a modest drop from 58% in November. The highest total was reported in February when 62% were in favor of immediate action on the issue. The lowest total meanwhile was measured in August at 53%. Kaiser shows slipping optimism from the public as to whether the country will be better or worse off with health care reform. Although the number who think America will be better off outnumbers those who think the country will be worse off by a margin of 45-31% that number has tumbled dramatically from a 54-27% split just last month. When asked the same question regarding their own family responders were divided by a 35-27% margin.

The Kaiser survey then broke down the 35% who claimed their families would be better off with health care reform into five separate sub-groupings. 31% believe a new bill would help control costs as the main reason for their support. 26% think they will be better able to maintain coverage for their whole family even in the event of one or both parents losing their job. 13% think reform will help their families more by allowing them to see the doctor more often and an identical percentage estimate the positive benefits to their country as a whole as the main reason. Lastly 6% of poll responders like the idea of having better choices and greater benefits.

On the flip side Kaiser looked at the 27% of those who claimed a new health care system would harm their families. The largest of four sub-groupings (47%) claimed the cost too high to afford for themselves, future generations or country at large as the primary reason for their opposition. One-third (33%) of the public claimed the passage of a new bill would negatively affect current health care plans that an individual may already be happy with as well as create additional problems with access and coverage. Similarly one in nine adults (11%) have Medicare related concerns that range from not having the same benefits from before to the fear that coverage to seniors could be cut off. The last 11% believe the government to be a bad manager for administrating health care and have a more general concern of the role of big government control.

Broken down by party over two-thirds (67%) of Democrats believe the country to be better off as a whole if health care reform is passed by the President and Congress. That figure represents a six-point drop from last month and is down from a high of 76% in April and June however. Republicans are more opposed than ever to a new plan with just 21% currently of the opinion that America will be better off down from a high of 38% in February. The steepest decline is with independents however. Falling sharply from percentages in the low to mid-50s in recent months just 38% of independents now believe the country will be better off for new health care reform.

Seniors are vastly more negative toward the possible effects of health care reform than younger adults. 52% of the over-65 crowd believes things would be worse off for themselves with a new bill against just 21% who think they’ll be better. Those younger are more optimistic about the fate of their elders regarding the changes stemming from reform. By a margin of 45-26% those under-65 think seniors will be better off with around one in five total not thinking the changes will make that much difference either way.

The public is fairly evenly divided in grading the role of the media on the issue and most Americans are tuned in to the debate. More (38%) think the news media has done a very good or excellent job in describing the different health care proposals and what they mean them and their families than those who feel they’ve done poorly (28%). 32% however think the media has done only a fair job in their coverage according to the Kaiser Family survey. Over three-quarters (76%) of the public has been following the health care discussions with 34% suggesting they’ve been following very closely. The level of attention and activism is up from the previous major health care issue in America back in February of 1994.

Despite their level of attention to the subject much of the public remains confused as to where their local representatives stand. Only 48% know what the positions their local Senators have on health care reform and just 42% know what side of the fence their district Congressional representative is sitting. Lastly there remains the possibility of considerable confusion and a lack of understand on the issue by the American people. When asked the following question regarding public option and the proposed government-administered plan to compete with private insurers 47% believe this option to be open to anyone with an additional 23% unsure. The correct answer that claimed such an option would be available only to those without employer coverage was scored accurately by just 30% of poll responders.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / EVAN VUCCI

Poll: Both Democrats and Republicans struggling on issues, public perception

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While known mostly for their regional coverage Quinnipiac’s latest survey focuses on the opinions of voters nationwide.

The key aspects from their recent polling over the weekend find President Obama’s approval rating and the percentage of public support for health care reform starting to settle in with a measure of consistency. Congress is heavily disapproved of with both Democrats and Republican representatives viewed in an increasingly negative light.

Below are ten highlights from the Quinnipiac survey of 2,630 registered adults nationwide.

1) President Obama’s approval rating holds steady from two months ago

In early August President Obama’s approval rating dropped seven-percentage points and his unfavorables by nine-percent. It was the start of a downward slide for the President but we now see two months of intense policy debate leveling his numbers somewhat. Currently 50% of registered adults nationwide approve of his job performance against 41% who do not. These figures are essentially unchanged from two months ago and include 82% of approving Democrats, 77% opposition from Republicans and a narrow 45-44% approval to disapproval split with independents.

2) Democrats in Congress see shrinking support from voters

With virtually all polls showing heavy dissatisfaction with Congress as a whole the majority party continues to struggle in the eyes of voters. Just 33% now approve of the way Democrats are handling their job, a modest two-point drop from early-August and a decline of twelve-points from early-March. At 56% negatives are also at a recent high for Congress since March. Just 8% of Republicans and 27% of independents approve of their job performance with even many Democrats (27%) showing dissatisfaction.

3) Congressional Republicans are viewed even worse by the public

The news is bad for the Democrats inching closer to a midterm election a little over a year away. Their situation seems less dire however considering the unpopularity of their opposition party. Republicans actually score eight-points lower in their Congressional approval ratings dropping to just 25%. This marks a four-point decrease from August all the while the number of those disapproving has jumped to a seven month high of 64%. Democrats and independents offer just 14% and 21% support respectively but it’s Republicans at an approval margin of 49-42% approval that is particularly notable.

4) Americans increasingly dissatisfied with the way things are going, economy top issue

There is a steady increase in the number of Americans who are dissatisfied with the way things are going. While not record low numbers just 3% claim to be very satisfied and 27% are somewhat satisfied. 38% meanwhile are very dissatisfied with 31% at least somewhat dissatisfied. Down from November of last year but still the top issue with voters is the economy at 42% - jobs in particular come in at 22%. Health care has risen from a modest concern with voters to a significant issue now at a record high of 18%

5) Slight improvement for President Obama in his handling of the economy

President Obama finds his approval rating for handling the overall economy under 50% for the second straight survey. Still it marks a modest improvement from Quinnipiac’s last poll in August. Currently 47% of the country approves of how he is handling economic matters against 46% who do not. That’s up from a 45-49% margin recorded two months ago but still down considerably from a 57-33% approval to disapproval split in March. Just 40% of independents and 15% of Republicans approve of the President in this area.

6) Modest bounce for Obama with health care, most still disapprove

After several months of pushing his top domestic priority President Obama has seen a modest payoff in the polls of his handling of health care. Still mired in the negatives Obama’s approval rating in this area has increased to 41% against 51% who continue to disapprove. That’s up from a 39-52% split recorded in early-August but still down from a 46-42% positive margin in early-July. Just 36% of a key group of independent voters approve of the President’s performance in handling health care. Political moderates are back in a 47-44% positive margin, but conservatives are heavily negative toward Obama with only 18% approving of his leadership on the issue.

7) President Obama’s health care reform plan still opposed by a plurality of Americans

40% of Americans are in favor with the health care reform proposals initiated by President Obama, 47% are opposed. This total includes 71% of Democrats but just 35% of independents and 9% of Republicans. Women are evenly split on the President’s plan (43-43%) but a majority of men (52%) remain opposed. Young voters 18-34 approve of the plan by a 47-42% margin but those over the age of 35 are only around 39% in favor. 71% of liberals against just 17% of conservatives are in favor of the President’s health care plan and there is also a large disparity between race with 79% of African Americans compared with just 33% of whites approving.

8) President Obama supported more than Republicans in Congress on health care

Asked who is doing a better job handling health care 47% of the voting public sides with President Obama against just 31% who favor the Republicans in Congress. This is a modest bump from August when the President was favored over the GOP by a margin of 46-37%. A fairly large 21% of population remains uncertain over who they side with more. Not surprisingly the support for either party remains a highly partisan issue. Just 5% of Democrats support the Republicans in congress and just 9% of Republican voters side with President Obama. Independents show a preference towards the President by a margin of 41-30%.

9) Most Americans in favor of a government plan to compete with private insurers

Holding steady from polls taken two months ago a clear majority of Americans support being given the option of coverage from a government health insurance plan that would compete with private plans. 61% favor that plan with 34% against the option. These totals are similar to Quinnipiac’s early-August survey that showed 62% of Americans supporting and 32% opposed to a government run plan. 36% of Republicans support the measure with a significant majority of independents (59%) and the vast majority of Democrats (81%) supportive of competition from the government.

10) Democrats favorability drops, still hire than sluggish figures for the GOP

Just 38% of American voters have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party according to the Quinnipiac survey. 46% now have unfavorable opinion of the party with both figures dropping and increasing by four-percentage points respectively since early-August. The Republican Party is in even worse shape with the electorate as just 25% have a favorable opinion of them and 53% hold unfavorable opinion. Just 9% of Republicans approve of the Democratic Party and just 8% of Democrats find the GOP favorable. 29% of independents give the Democrats a favorable rating and that number drops to a dismal 19% when asked the same about the Republican Party.

Poll: Opposition to health care reform drops, Americans still divided

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The slowly beating heart of health care reform just received a shot of adrenaline from three new polls released this week. While it’s too soon to suggest that the Democratic proposals for reform have rebounded to the point of a full upward climb this recent bounce tracked by no less than three major pollsters is noteworthy.

This morning the new AP-GFK survey shows that an even number of Americans (40-40%) supporting and opposing the health care reform plans being discussed by Congress. This is a rather dramatic improvement from a month ago when that same survey indicated that just 34% supported the plan against 49% who were opposed. Rasmussen Reports mirrors those findings tracking the issue weekly. While still in the negative the 46% of those favoring and 50% of those opposed is up from a 41-56% low point measured just a week and a half ago.

Past Gallup surveys have tended to show less resistance from the American public toward President Obama and Congressional Democrats’ reform proposals. Still there is a modest bounce even from their last poll on the topic. Asking adults whether they’d recommend their local representative vote for a reform bill 40% are shown to be in favor against 36% who are now opposed and 25% without an opinion. This is up modestly from a 38-40-22% split measured three weeks earlier. When party “leaners” are taking into consideration opposition to health care reform is now firmly in the minority with just 41% saying they would tell their representatives to vote against and 51% favoring a “yay” vote.

Moving the attention back to the AP-GFK survey, 46% of Americans now claim health care to be an extremely important issue. For President Obama there has been an improvement as well. Obama gets the first positive marks he has received on his handling of the issue since mid-July with 48% approving against 47% who still disapprove. The elderly in particular have shown a marked increase in their support for a plan, up sixteen-points from the last AP poll.

Americans seem to have conflicting opinions when it comes to the necessity of bipartisan cooperation between the two major parties on the issue. Up six-points from a month ago 62% think a bill supported by both Democrats and Republicans in Congress is important. Also up six-points from a month ago however are the number of those (34%) who think President Obama and Democrats should move ahead in their desire to pass a bill even without Republican support.

The divide between parties is still as evident as it has been in recent surveys. Gallup indicates that 66% of Democrats would advise their member of congress to vote for a bill but just 16% of Republicans would do the same. According to Rasmussen 78% of Democrats favor a the new plan but that number is essentially flipped with eight in ten Republicans opposed to the reform bill. Both polls show considerably more political independents opposed to health care reform than in favor of it meaning President Obama and his allies in Congress still have a long way to go on the issue.

Poll: Americans increasingly tuned in to political news

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With the level of discussion on social topics so high and so many Americans involved in the political process in recent years it’s not surprising to see an increase in the number of those paying attention to political news.

The results of a recent Gallup survey show that far more Americans are tuned in lately than ever before. Generally Gallup has measured a considerable drop in the level of attention Americans pay to political news from an election year to a one without major Presidential or Congressional races. While there has been a predictable drop from September of 2008 to 2009 an impressive number of Americans (36%) still claim to follow national political news “very” closely at present. Last election season 43% suggested they were very closely in tune with the events of the day, a record high percentage since Gallup began its tracking on this topic in 2001.

Charting the course from when President George W. Bush was first inaugurated in 2001 interest in political news dropped to its lowest point (19%) in the months prior to the September 11th tragedies. Since that time there has been a steady increase in the number of those plugged in to their news media. By the election season of 2004 some 36% of Americans claimed to be tuned in closely and while that total dropped to around 28% in the following off-election year, 31% of Americans were back viewing attentively for the 2006 midterms.

So far we have seen a steady rise, according to Gallup’s polling, in the number of those viewing political news closely in off-election years. In late-2001 just 23% were heavily tuned in. Those figures increased to 27% in 2003, 28% in 2005, 30% by 2007 and now a record high of 36% in 2009. Just as impressive as the total number of Americans who are closely in turn with political news are the 42% who suggest they are at least "somewhat" plugged in to their coverage. This brings the current total to 78% of adults who show at least some interest in following national affairs.

Gallup actually began tracking this statistic from the mid-stages of 1995 to mid-1996 before leaving a four and half year gap in their data gathering. The lowest total in the number of those who paid attention to political news in that span was 69% registered in the early-July of 1995. The highest number was measured at 81% in January of 1996 as that year’s election season began. Currently just 6% of adults report not watching news of national political affairs at all.

By party the number of Republicans exceeds Democrats and independents in the level of those tuned in. 41% of Republicans watch political news very closely, 37% of independents do the same, while 30% of Democrats share in that assessment. There is slightly more consistency in the number of those who do not pay any attention to political news. This includes just 18% of Republicans, 21% of Democrats and 24% of independents who are essentially tuned out.

Gallup points out that overall Republicans tend to report following political news a bit closer than Democrats or independents but these numbers have been subject to change depending on the election cycle. Democrats exceeded Republican levels during the span of late-August and early-September in 2004 by a 41-38% margin. Both parties cratered to a 26% level of attentiveness during that same span of 2005 against 30% independents who viewed news more closely. By the 2006 midterms Republicans tuned in considerably more than Democrats (35-27%) in spite of their heavy losses than fall. Last year’s election cycle which recorded record highs across the board included 50% of Republicans closely following political news against 44% of Democrats and 37% of independents doing the same.

Lastly Gallup shows substantial differences in terms of gender, age, education and income regardless of party identification. More men than women are tuned in closely (42-30%). Those aged 65 and older (46%) are far more attentive than young adults 18-29 (19%), or even those aged 30-64 (36%). The higher the level of education the more politically interested people tend to be. Postgraduates are tops at 52% closely tuned in, high school grads or less the least at just half that figure (26%) and those claiming some college or college graduates fit comfortably in the middle (39%). Greater wealth also seems to equal greater political interest and awareness. Just 26% of those making less than $30,000 a year follow political news closely against 34% in the $30,000-$74,999 range and 45% who earn $75,000 or more.

With approval ratings for Congress at near record-low, which party holds edge?

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With so much talk recently about President Obama’s struggling approval numbers both on the issue of health care an overall it would be easy to assume the Republican Party is on the cusp of a comeback. Sure enough there are several individual races in the upcoming 2010 midterms where high profile Democrats look in danger of being unseated at this point in time.

The bigger picture however remains that while the party in power always gets the most attention the vast majority of Americans are dissatisfied with their leaders on either side of the political isle.

A recently released Gallup/USA Today survey shows that both Congressional Democrats and Republicans are at near record-low approval numbers. Aside from a spike in confidence for both sides following the January inauguration of President Obama the overall trend for either party is a downward slide since early-2002. Currently the Gallup poll pegs Democratic approval in congress at 36% with the GOP pulling in an even more dismal 27%. Democrats reached their all-time low at the end of 2007 when just 30% of Americans approved of how they were handling their job, the Republican Party meanwhile cratered at 25% just before the beginning of 2009.

Republican voters are quick to call out what they perceive to be a lackluster performance by their own party. Just 39% of Republicans now approve of the performance of their GOP representatives, this down from 52% nine months ago. Oddly enough Democrats actually have an improved opinion of the GOP congress giving them a 20% approval, up eleven percentage-points from last December.

Perhaps the influence of Democratic President in the White House has given Democratic voters a more optimistic view of their politicians overall. They give their own party’s Congress a 67% approval rating currently, up seven-points from December. Independent’s meanwhile favor Democrats in congress by a narrow 28-25% margin down from 29-22% nine months ago. The highest marks ever scored for either party within their own party not surprisingly came in the wake of September 11, 2001. Democratic approval of the Dems in Congress climbed to 82% in the later stages of 2001 and Republicans view of the GOP surged up to 86% in early-2002. Similarly independent support of both parties reached a record high in early-2002 with 55% approving of the job Democrats in Congress were doing and 52% giving positive marks to Republican representatives.

Gallup isn’t alone in their harsh assessment of Congress coming from voters. A recent Fox poll indicates that just 27% of registered voters approve of the job Congress is doing, down from 30% a month ago and down four-points from mid-May. AP-GFK rates Congressional approval at just 28% while CBS has the figure even lower at 26%. Poor as that sounds the approval numbers being generated by Congress from the aforementioned pollsters actually mark a considerable approvement from the truly dismal figures collected from last October.

So where do the two parties stand in terms of a head-to-head match up looming in 2010? With the individual approval ratings of either party so low Rasmussen not surprisingly has a tight race depicted. Currently the Republican Party holds a slight 41-40% edge against Democrats in a generic ballot, this mirrors the overall picture over the past several months.

Of course the midterms are over a year away and much can happen in that time to shift the political landscape. The number of Americans approving of either party’s Congress in recent years has remained consistently low however. Does this perhaps point to a fight for control of the House and Senate in the years to follow as being a battle of individual races instead of that of an overall wave of public sentiment? Only time will tell.

Survey: Current partisan trends are balanced by political extremes

Does having more self described moderates make for a more centrist America? It’s tough to tell really, but from analyzing some recent partisan trends the answer is probably “no”.

Rasmussen Reports updated their partisan trends for the recently completed month of August. In spite of a rough political month for President Obama the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats rebounded slightly with the percentage of Republicans suffering a small drop in turn. Currently 37.3% of the country are Democrats or leaning towards the Democratic Party and 32.6% of voters are self-described Republicans.

What is more interesting is the increase in unaffiliated voters. Now at 30.2% unaffiliateds are at their highest total in over two years, although as Rasmussen points out it is not unusual to see an increase in those not affiliating with either major party in off-election years such as 2009. Still unaffiliated Americans are currently a larger block of voters than in recent years overall. Since 2004 the unaffiliated average of 28.5% is noticeably lower than the 30.2% currently being measured. This would include three even-numbered election years and a little less than three total odd or off-election years.

The large block of unaffiliated voters is reflected in the increasingly negative views many Americans hold of the two major parties. A recent Pew Research poll of over 2,000 adults nationwide finds the favorable ratings for each party falling below 50%. The Democratic Party is currently at 49% with an unfavorable rating of 41%. Worse yet for the Dems, the number of Americans holding a “very” unfavorable view of the party outnumbers those who hold a very favorable by a margin of 16-12%.

The news is even worse for the GOP. Just 7% of Pew survey responders claimed to hold a very favorable opinion of the Republican Party against 18% who were very unfavorable. In total the overall GOP approval ratings hover at just 40% with 50% viewing the party negatively.

In spite of apparent dissatisfaction with the two major parties and with a large number of unaffiliated voters most Americans remain sharply divided ideologically speaking. Although white-Caucasians make up nearly two-thirds of the U.S. population very few occupy the middle ground or moderate range of their respective parties. According to a just released Gallup survey only 6% of racially white Americans are self-described conservative Democrats, with only 11% of white’s claiming to be liberal Republicans.

Conversely both parties are still composed largely of voters from their respective political extremes. White liberal Democrats are 25% of their party’s population with conservative Caucasian Republicans making up 23% of the GOP. In terms of demographics the wealthier and more educated a Democrat is the more they tend to be ideologically liberal. The correlation of the number of liberals in the Republican Party is a bit more statistically hazy. Like Democrats more Republicans claim to have a liberal political slant as you go higher in income levels, but in terms of education considerably more college graduates are liberal (12.3%) than those who hold post-graduate degrees (9.9%). This differs from trends in the Democratic Party.

In conclusion there appears to be much stability in terms of party affiliation and political ideology in spite of the historically low approval numbers both the Democratic and Republican Party’s are currently receiving. As mentioned previously conservatives outnumber liberals by a steady margin both in Pennsylvania and nationally and Democrats meanwhile are consistently more numerous than Republicans. It’s easy to argue that this helps to create a healthy sense of balance. However the balance that persists in American politics is weighed mostly by ideological weights on the far end of either side of the political see-saw not by stable forces joining in the middle.

Americans remain both relatively equal in numbers and divided in mindset.