Monday, December 21, 2009

Health care reform: Polling the reasons for support, opposition and understanding of the issue

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Senate Democrats are finally on the verge of passing health care reform legislation. With every Democratic, including two left-leaning independents, in favor and all forty Republicans in opposition the bill is expected to be signed into law by President Obama prior to Christmas day.

It will be interesting to see what effect the passage of the bill has on the perceptions of the American public as we keep a watchful eye on new polls emerging in the coming days. Most polls at present show considerable majorities against the current version of the bill. Recently released surveys from Rasmussen Reports and CNN/Opinion Research indicate the level of support is mired in the lower 40-percentiles with opposition reaching up to the mid and high-50s.

The Kaiser Family Foundation recently chimed in on the state of health care with a survey of over 1,200 randomly selected samples. Their elaborate charts have been tracking support and opposition on any number of issues since mid-February.

Kaiser reports 54% want health care reform immediately. That is a modest drop from 58% in November. The highest total was reported in February when 62% were in favor of immediate action on the issue. The lowest total meanwhile was measured in August at 53%. Kaiser shows slipping optimism from the public as to whether the country will be better or worse off with health care reform. Although the number who think America will be better off outnumbers those who think the country will be worse off by a margin of 45-31% that number has tumbled dramatically from a 54-27% split just last month. When asked the same question regarding their own family responders were divided by a 35-27% margin.

The Kaiser survey then broke down the 35% who claimed their families would be better off with health care reform into five separate sub-groupings. 31% believe a new bill would help control costs as the main reason for their support. 26% think they will be better able to maintain coverage for their whole family even in the event of one or both parents losing their job. 13% think reform will help their families more by allowing them to see the doctor more often and an identical percentage estimate the positive benefits to their country as a whole as the main reason. Lastly 6% of poll responders like the idea of having better choices and greater benefits.

On the flip side Kaiser looked at the 27% of those who claimed a new health care system would harm their families. The largest of four sub-groupings (47%) claimed the cost too high to afford for themselves, future generations or country at large as the primary reason for their opposition. One-third (33%) of the public claimed the passage of a new bill would negatively affect current health care plans that an individual may already be happy with as well as create additional problems with access and coverage. Similarly one in nine adults (11%) have Medicare related concerns that range from not having the same benefits from before to the fear that coverage to seniors could be cut off. The last 11% believe the government to be a bad manager for administrating health care and have a more general concern of the role of big government control.

Broken down by party over two-thirds (67%) of Democrats believe the country to be better off as a whole if health care reform is passed by the President and Congress. That figure represents a six-point drop from last month and is down from a high of 76% in April and June however. Republicans are more opposed than ever to a new plan with just 21% currently of the opinion that America will be better off down from a high of 38% in February. The steepest decline is with independents however. Falling sharply from percentages in the low to mid-50s in recent months just 38% of independents now believe the country will be better off for new health care reform.

Seniors are vastly more negative toward the possible effects of health care reform than younger adults. 52% of the over-65 crowd believes things would be worse off for themselves with a new bill against just 21% who think they’ll be better. Those younger are more optimistic about the fate of their elders regarding the changes stemming from reform. By a margin of 45-26% those under-65 think seniors will be better off with around one in five total not thinking the changes will make that much difference either way.

The public is fairly evenly divided in grading the role of the media on the issue and most Americans are tuned in to the debate. More (38%) think the news media has done a very good or excellent job in describing the different health care proposals and what they mean them and their families than those who feel they’ve done poorly (28%). 32% however think the media has done only a fair job in their coverage according to the Kaiser Family survey. Over three-quarters (76%) of the public has been following the health care discussions with 34% suggesting they’ve been following very closely. The level of attention and activism is up from the previous major health care issue in America back in February of 1994.

Despite their level of attention to the subject much of the public remains confused as to where their local representatives stand. Only 48% know what the positions their local Senators have on health care reform and just 42% know what side of the fence their district Congressional representative is sitting. Lastly there remains the possibility of considerable confusion and a lack of understand on the issue by the American people. When asked the following question regarding public option and the proposed government-administered plan to compete with private insurers 47% believe this option to be open to anyone with an additional 23% unsure. The correct answer that claimed such an option would be available only to those without employer coverage was scored accurately by just 30% of poll responders.


PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / EVAN VUCCI


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