READ FULL STORY HEREThe first set of data from polling on Afghanistan is coming in and USA Today/Gallup has a jump on the early results.
A survey released this morning of over a thousands adults nationwide shows modest bipartisan support for President Obama’s plans for a troop increase in Afghanistan. 51% of adults favor the President’s plan to increase forces by 30,000 while setting a timetable for their return as part of a lengthy Tuesday night address to the American public. 40% opposed the plan and nine-percent remain uncertain.
As has rarely been the case with proposals made by Obama and/or the Democratic Congress support for the Afghan troop surge is met with support from both Democrats and Republicans. Prior to the President’s announcement earlier in the week a clear majority of Democrats (57%) were opposed to a troop surge. Only 29% favored a plan that would increase levels with an additional 10% in favor of keeping them roughly the same. Perhaps due to the President’s popularity within his own party and his ability to sway Democratic support there is now almost a total reversal in the opinion of Democrats on the issue. 58% now favor the current plan to add 30,000 troops while settling at least a tentative timetable for withdraw in 2011. 35% in the party are still opposed with seven-percent having no opinion.
Republican support is a bit more consistent. 65% wanted to see a troop increase of 40,000 as requested by General McCrystal prior to Obama’s Tuesday night address. An additional seven-percent favored the adding of a number smaller than 40,000, eight-percent supported keeping the number the same and only 17% requested the troop levels being reduced. Now support amongst the GOP closely mirrors that of Democrats. 55% are in favor of the current plan, 37% are opposed and eight-percent claim to have no opinion on the matter.
Independent voters are holding firm with their opinions from before and after the Obama speech. Less than two weeks ago the block was split almost evenly between those seeking an increase of 40,000 troops (36%) and those in favor of withdraw (37%). There was also a 10-8% margin in those independents who sought a smaller number of troops sent to Afghanistan and those who felt the current levels were sufficient. Now we see independents in favor of (45%) and opposed (44%) to the Obama plan almost evenly.
Wording plays a part in this current Gallup poll. It’s difficult to tell whether responders were asked the questions “no opinion” or “unsure” on the topic. Those who specifically say they are “unsure” may still be debating both sides of the issue whereas those who claimed to have “no opinion” could be a combination of that and those that aren’t following the topic closely or at all. It would be interesting to see how many Americans in each party remain decidedly “unsure” of where they sit on the issue rather than boxed into two basic categories and a third that is somewhat idiosyncratic.
Further down Gallup’s survey we see opinions on the exact number of American troops President Obama plans on sending to Afghanistan. A slight plurality (38%) of all adults think the 30,000 figure proposed by the President is about right against 36% who think it too high and 18% too low. Interestingly in spite of their support for Obama’s plan overall 43% of Democrats believe the 30,000 troop figure is too high. 39% think it to be about right but only 12% consider the number to be too low. A slight plurality of Republicans (38%) meanwhile think the 30,000 number to be about right but nearly twice as many in the party (35%) think the number too low rather than too high (18%). Independents are once again a ideologically divided on the issue. A nearly identical number (39%) think an increase of 30,000 American troops is too high for Afghanistan and about right (38%). 16% meanwhile consider the added forces to be too small.
Lastly Gallup gathers opinions on the topic of a timetable for withdraw. The President offered up an eighteen month timeframe where our troops “will begin to come home…taking into account conditions on the ground.” What this specifically entails is left up to much debate but for now the American public remains largely opposed to the setting of any timetable, at least at this point. 46% overall suggest it is too early to set a timetable for withdraw. That number includes the vast majority of Republicans (72%) a solid plurality of independents (43%) and better than a third of Democrats (34%). 21% responders favor the eighteen month timetable with 27% of Democrats, 22% of independents and just 12% of Republicans in agreement. An identical number of Democrats to the total of those who are opposed to Obama’s plan for Afghanistan in general (35%) feel American troops should be withdrawn sooner than eighteen months. Just over a quarter (26%) overall agree with a shorter timetable including 27% of independents and one in nine (11%) Republicans.
Gallup points out that President Obama has managed to create the rather unusual situation of a modest majority of both Democrats and Republicans agreeing with his current strategy on an issue. Strategically speaking Obama managed to accomplish this despite ruffling the feathers of Democrats who were opposed to any troop increase in Afghanistan and Republicans who are heavily against any sort of withdraw timetable.
The idea that Obama has at least some sort of withdraw plan that energizes Democrats and has increased troop levels that at least somewhat please Republicans probably explains his current level of support from both groups. Yet less than half of independents are on board with the Obama-plan and it will be interesting to see what if any impact the President’s decision on Afghanistan will have on his overall approval numbers.
...the bottom line at the moment is that Obama has managed to generate a
slim majority support among all Americans for his new policy. Obama faces the
highest level of skepticism among independents, but has knit together a
coalition of support that includes a majority of both Democrats and Republicans.
Given that in large part, political and pundit voices that are solidly partisan
are debating Afghanistan, this majority approval level among Democrats and
Republicans may be the most politically significant short-term reaction to the
new policy. – Frank Newport / Gallup.com
PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / JULIE JACOBSON
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