Poll: Nearly 7 in 10 Afgans support U.S. forces in their country

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President Obama’s troop surge has divided the American public, but in Afghanistan where those troops will be stationed a clear majority favor U.S. presence in their country.

Conducted between December 11-23rd of 1,534 randomly sampled Afghan adults the survey was a joint effort between ABC News, the BBC and the Afghan Center for Socio-Economic and Opinion Research (ACSOR) in Kabul.

Nearly seven in ten Afghans polled support U.S. forces in their country with 61% in favor of President Obama and NATO’s plan to deploy 37,000 additional troops. The overall level of support for U.S. involvement from Afghani citizens far exceeds the troop support in Iraq. In polls taken shortly before the American midterm elections in 2006 nearly two-thirds (65%) of Iraqi’s favored an immediate U.S. troop withdraw from their country.

Yet the support for American forces in Afghanistan is not felt evenly across all regions.

Support is lowest in the southern and eastern areas of the country bordering Pakistan where the fighting has been most intense. Just one in ten Afghans support the Taliban, but in the more rural southwest region that figure jumps to over a quarter (27%) of the local population. In certain areas like the southern Helmand province optimism remains scarce where the Taliban’s insurgency is strongest.

Never the less Afghan views seem to be shifting against the Taliban. 42% now blame the group for the violence in their country, up from just 15% who pointed the finger at the Taliban a year ago. Furthermore just 17% consider the violence a result of U.S. and NATO policies or interference down from more than half (53%) who felt that way last year.

After years of battered confidence Afghans are beginning to express greater optimism about the outlook of their country. Nearly seven in ten (69%) citizens believe Afghanistan is heading in the right direction. That’s up nearly thirty-percentage points from similar polling taken last January. 71% of Afghans also believe their lives will be better a year from now – up twenty-points in twelve-months. 61% meanwhile feel the next generation of Afghan adults will have a better life than they’ve had.

In domestic polling a mid-December survey from ABC News / Washington Post found that by a 52-44% margin most Americans approved of the way the President Obama was handling the situation in Afghanistan and considered the war worth fighting. 36% strongly supported the President’s plan to send 30,000 more troops into the country with 30% strongly opposed to his decision.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Dusan Vranic

Poll: Obama approval rating dips further in two new surveys

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Two recent polls show that President Obama’s approval rating has fallen to a new low.

Recent entries from both Marist and Quinnipiac have shown the President receiving the worst marks of his Presidency, 46%, despite majority support for his military plans in Afghanistan and some improved economic forecasts of late. Both organizations also show Obama with a disapproval of 44% amongst registered voters.

These are the worst set of figures from a number of recently released surveys in early-December. Generally the President scores highest when the sample is broadened to adults, understandable since a far higher number of Democratic “leaners” tend to not be registered than Republicans. Even his numbers amongst sampled adults have been all over the map recently however. A recent Bloomberg poll shows Obama solidly in the majority with a 54-41% approval to disapproval rating. Gallup who also surveys adults currently places the President at a 50-45% margin after he had dropped to as low as 47-46% over the weekend. Ipsos/McClatchy has the President locked in at an even 49-49% split and CNN/Opinion Research figures from last week had Obama pulling in a negative 48-50% rating.

Rasmussen Reports has consistently shown the President to be weakest amongst likely voters. Obama’s approval rating has ranged between 46% and 50% over the past several weeks currently settling in at 48% with 52% disapproving of his job performance.

The Marist poll shows a sharp decline of seven-points in Obama’s approval rating from their last survey in October. Democratic support has fallen to 77%, just 12% of Republican’s approve of Obama with a plurality of independents now disapproving of the President by a margin of 44-41%. In regards to the expectations game just nine-percent of voters feel Obama has exceeded their assumptions. 44% think he has met expectations with 42% feeling the President has fallen short. Disturbingly for Obama in every category including strongly supportive groups such as liberals, Democratic women and younger voters more suggest the President has failed to meet expectations than exceeded them.

An almost identical number (48-47%) of those polled by Marist believe the country to be headed in the right and wrong direction respectively. President Obama receives a poor 45% rating for his handling of the economy, and a narrow 47-43% positive split in the number of those who approve of his handling of the war in Afghanistan. One bright spot in the poll for the President is the 55% who still view him favorably against just 41% who do not. This includes a 49-43% margin amongst independents, the primary source for Obama’s falling approval rating in recent weeks.

Quinnipiac results mirror those from Marist with some differences in their cross tabs. Obama has dropped another two points in his overall approval rating from their last poll and has struggled heavily with independents who now give him just a 37-51% margin of approval. Obama does better with Democrats and Republicans in the Quinnipiac survey than Marist but his handling of the economy in that poll (41-54%) is critiqued even harsher. The President also struggles a tad more on the topic of Afghanistan according to the Quinnipiac poll. The latter of the two surveys pits his current approval of the war at an even 45-45% margin.

One silver lining for Obama supporters may be the fact that even in midst of these difficult times the current President is not charting new territory for low first-year approval ratings. Gallup currently measures Obama’s December rating at 50%. That’s actually a point higher than Ronald Reagan’s December 1981 rating and just three points lower than Bill Clinton’s from December of 1993. Both Presidents entered office under difficult economic conditions and both easily won reelection three years later.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / GERLAD HERBERT

Poll: Majority of Americans support Obama's plans for Afghanistan

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The first set of data from polling on Afghanistan is coming in and USA Today/Gallup has a jump on the early results.

A survey released this morning of over a thousands adults nationwide shows modest bipartisan support for President Obama’s plans for a troop increase in Afghanistan. 51% of adults favor the President’s plan to increase forces by 30,000 while setting a timetable for their return as part of a lengthy Tuesday night address to the American public. 40% opposed the plan and nine-percent remain uncertain.

As has rarely been the case with proposals made by Obama and/or the Democratic Congress support for the Afghan troop surge is met with support from both Democrats and Republicans. Prior to the President’s announcement earlier in the week a clear majority of Democrats (57%) were opposed to a troop surge. Only 29% favored a plan that would increase levels with an additional 10% in favor of keeping them roughly the same. Perhaps due to the President’s popularity within his own party and his ability to sway Democratic support there is now almost a total reversal in the opinion of Democrats on the issue. 58% now favor the current plan to add 30,000 troops while settling at least a tentative timetable for withdraw in 2011. 35% in the party are still opposed with seven-percent having no opinion.

Republican support is a bit more consistent. 65% wanted to see a troop increase of 40,000 as requested by General McCrystal prior to Obama’s Tuesday night address. An additional seven-percent favored the adding of a number smaller than 40,000, eight-percent supported keeping the number the same and only 17% requested the troop levels being reduced. Now support amongst the GOP closely mirrors that of Democrats. 55% are in favor of the current plan, 37% are opposed and eight-percent claim to have no opinion on the matter.

Independent voters are holding firm with their opinions from before and after the Obama speech. Less than two weeks ago the block was split almost evenly between those seeking an increase of 40,000 troops (36%) and those in favor of withdraw (37%). There was also a 10-8% margin in those independents who sought a smaller number of troops sent to Afghanistan and those who felt the current levels were sufficient. Now we see independents in favor of (45%) and opposed (44%) to the Obama plan almost evenly.

Wording plays a part in this current Gallup poll. It’s difficult to tell whether responders were asked the questions “no opinion” or “unsure” on the topic. Those who specifically say they are “unsure” may still be debating both sides of the issue whereas those who claimed to have “no opinion” could be a combination of that and those that aren’t following the topic closely or at all. It would be interesting to see how many Americans in each party remain decidedly “unsure” of where they sit on the issue rather than boxed into two basic categories and a third that is somewhat idiosyncratic.

Further down Gallup’s survey we see opinions on the exact number of American troops President Obama plans on sending to Afghanistan. A slight plurality (38%) of all adults think the 30,000 figure proposed by the President is about right against 36% who think it too high and 18% too low. Interestingly in spite of their support for Obama’s plan overall 43% of Democrats believe the 30,000 troop figure is too high. 39% think it to be about right but only 12% consider the number to be too low. A slight plurality of Republicans (38%) meanwhile think the 30,000 number to be about right but nearly twice as many in the party (35%) think the number too low rather than too high (18%). Independents are once again a ideologically divided on the issue. A nearly identical number (39%) think an increase of 30,000 American troops is too high for Afghanistan and about right (38%). 16% meanwhile consider the added forces to be too small.

Lastly Gallup gathers opinions on the topic of a timetable for withdraw. The President offered up an eighteen month timeframe where our troops “will begin to come home…taking into account conditions on the ground.” What this specifically entails is left up to much debate but for now the American public remains largely opposed to the setting of any timetable, at least at this point. 46% overall suggest it is too early to set a timetable for withdraw. That number includes the vast majority of Republicans (72%) a solid plurality of independents (43%) and better than a third of Democrats (34%). 21% responders favor the eighteen month timetable with 27% of Democrats, 22% of independents and just 12% of Republicans in agreement. An identical number of Democrats to the total of those who are opposed to Obama’s plan for Afghanistan in general (35%) feel American troops should be withdrawn sooner than eighteen months. Just over a quarter (26%) overall agree with a shorter timetable including 27% of independents and one in nine (11%) Republicans.

Gallup points out that President Obama has managed to create the rather unusual situation of a modest majority of both Democrats and Republicans agreeing with his current strategy on an issue. Strategically speaking Obama managed to accomplish this despite ruffling the feathers of Democrats who were opposed to any troop increase in Afghanistan and Republicans who are heavily against any sort of withdraw timetable.

The idea that Obama has at least some sort of withdraw plan that energizes Democrats and has increased troop levels that at least somewhat please Republicans probably explains his current level of support from both groups. Yet less than half of independents are on board with the Obama-plan and it will be interesting to see what if any impact the President’s decision on Afghanistan will have on his overall approval numbers.

...the bottom line at the moment is that Obama has managed to generate a
slim majority support among all Americans for his new policy. Obama faces the
highest level of skepticism among independents, but has knit together a
coalition of support that includes a majority of both Democrats and Republicans.
Given that in large part, political and pundit voices that are solidly partisan
are debating Afghanistan, this majority approval level among Democrats and
Republicans may be the most politically significant short-term reaction to the
new policy. – Frank Newport / Gallup.com

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / JULIE JACOBSON

Poll: Public opinion remains divided on what to do in Afghanistan

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Little more than a day before President Obama’s much anticipated speech the public remains closely divided on the issue of America’s involvement in Afghanistan.

The latest poll released by USA Today/Gallup this morning indicates a modest shift in support for troop level increases from their previous poll over two weeks ago. Overall 47% of the 1,017 American adults surveyed by Gallup favor some sort of increase in troop levels. Specifically 37% favor an increase of 40,000 as recommended by General Stanley McChrystal, U.S. commander in Afghanistan, and an additional 10% of responders want an increase of under-40,000. Dropping five-points from the last poll 39% now want to see a reduction in troop levels, whereas 9% think current U.S. levels should be maintained.

The divided public places President Obama in a curious position, at least in terms of his own support on the issue of Afghanistan and foreign policy at large. Obama’s overall approval amongst Democrats remains high yet according to polling Dems are strongly against increases in troop levels. Just 29% want to see some sort of increase against 57% who favor a reduction in forces. Republicans meanwhile are solidly against Obama’s foreign policy and give him low approval marks in general of late. Yet 72% of Republicans support troop increases in Afghanistan, including nearly two-thirds (65%) that seek the requested 40,000. The key group of voters remains independents. Mirroring overall totals 46% of independents favor a troop increase. 36% specifically want 40,000 sent overseas against 37% who prefer a troop reduction and 8% wanting to keep the current number in tact.

The U.S. involvement in Afghanistan has not received the same level of criticism as Iraq in spite of the overwhelming number of Americans who rate the situation as poor. Holding relatively steady from previous polls 60% of the public feels the United States did not make a mistake by sending troops to Afghanistan after 9/11/01 against just 36% who do think it was error in judgment. This comes despite the 66% of Americans who also feel the situation abroad is going “badly” against just 32% who say it is going well.

The divided public opinion is reflected in others polls as well. Rasmussen Reports in a recent survey finds that 45% of Americans either want U.S. troops out of Afghanistan now or within a year against 43% who are opposed to any sort of timetable. Other mid-November polls track public opinion on a range of topics. The often contradictory looking responses from one poll or one question to the next illustrate the complexity of the issue in Afghanistan.

69% of adults according to a recent CBS News poll rate the situation in Afghanistan as going badly – just 23% feel it is going well. There is a more evenly divided number on the question of whether troop levels should be increased. 32% want an increase in levels, 39% a decrease and a large number (20%) would prefer our forces to remain at the same level they are currently. In spite of the plurality of those who would like to see a decrease in troop levels according to the CBS poll 36% believe the situation in Afghanistan will improve if the United States does in fact send more troops. Just 22% think such a move will make matters worse and 31% think it will have no impact.

CNN/Opinion Research mirrors the previously discussed Gallup poll with just 32% of its responders considering the situation in Afghanistan to being going well against 66% who believe it to be going poorly. A majority of the public (52%) also opposes the war in Afghanistan. The exact number of troop levels seems to be a sticking point for some. The CNN poll finds that a narrow plurality (50-49%) of responders favor an increase of 34,000 troops, but support falls to just 42% when asked whether they would favor the President sending a smaller number of troops overseas.

Lastly an ABC/Washington Post survey shows that by a 52-44% margin most adults think the war in Afghanistan has not been worth fighting when all factors are considered. There is a virtually even split (45-46%) between those who like to see a smaller or larger number of troops sent to Afghanistan in the event the President orders an increase – although no exact number is specified. 55% of Americans are at least somewhat confident President Obama can develop a strategy for success in Afghanistan although only 45% of those polled approve of his handling of the situation to this point.

By all accounts the President has difficult decisions to make regarding the situation in Afghanistan. Much of that should be revealed to the American public tomorrow night. With a large majority of Americans rating the situation in Afghanistan as poor, but at least a plurality in favor of some sort of troop increase Obama’s likely play is to announce that more American forces will join in the fight. The President does so however at the risk of alienating his own base just as any increase of smaller than 40,000 will not sit well with the majority of Republicans. The wild card here is political independents. Obama’s announcement Tuesday night will be deemed effective if he can convert a sizeable number of those skeptical or tentative to ultimately side with his plans for Afghanistan.

Poll: Half still blame Bush for bad economy

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A new survey from Rasmussen Reports finds that half the country (50%) still blames the Bush administration for the current economic problems gripping the country. President Obama who has now been in office for over ten-months receives the blame of 42% of voters with an additional eight-percent undecided between the two.

Bush left office in January of 2009 with some of the worst approval ratings ever received by a President. Although initially greeted warmly by the vast majority of Americans Bush’s successor Obama has incurred slumping popularity, particularly on the economic front.

Last month Bush led Obama by a more modest 49-45% in this poll question. While being hit with slightly less blame than the last survey released early this month there is still an increase in the numbers of fingers pointed in Obama’s direction since October. That month Rasmussen found that just 37% of American voters blamed the current President for the country’s economic woes against 55% who considered it Bush’s mishandling. Women are more critical of Bush than Obama by thirteen-percentage points whereas men are almost evenly divided between the two. Younger adults age 18-29 are more critical of the Bush administration but unaffiliated voters now blame Obama’s policies slightly more than former President Bush’s.

Focusing on other minor positives for Obama, the President is also slightly buoyed by greater confidence in his economic judgment this month. By a 57-33% margin voters still trust their own economic judgment on the issues more than the President’s but that’s an improvement from the 62-27% split Obama received in late-October.

Greater economic confidence and improving stock market have not been enough to improve the President’s sagging approval ratings of late. Rasmussen gives one of the harshest public assessments of Obama’s job performance, currently at 46%, but the average from nine major polls released since mid-November hovers at just over 50%. Public support for health care, a major piece of the Obama agenda, continues to fall just as questions over the President’s handling of the situation in Afghanistan rise.

Obama will address the nation on his Afghanistan troop strategy on Tuesday perhaps shifting attention away from the economic state of America if only for a day or two.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Tony Gutierrez

Poll: Public resists sending more troops to Afghanistan, also hesitant on Pakistan

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With a majority of the public focused most closely on economic matters at home it’s easy to lose sight of the growing problem facing President Obama and our military in Afghanistan.

This morning the latest round of troubling news appeared as fourteen Americans were killed in two separate helicopter crashes. The President is being pressured from all sides to declare a firm course of action just as the American public remains leery of battle in Afghanistan.

Three recent polls help track the current state of mind being expressed by the public on Afghanistan. CNN/Opinion Research Corporation indicates broad resistance to the idea of sending more American troops into combat. 59% are opposed against just 39% who are in favor of increasing troop levels in Afghanistan. Eight-percent of the public wants to see current levels maintained but a significant block (21%) would like to see a reduction in our fighting forces with an additional 28% in favor of a complete withdraw. 61% of American adults see the war in Afghanistan relating to the greater war on terror following the events of September 11, 2001.

Less than one in three Americans have confidence in the ability of an Afghani government to sustain a democratic government, keeps it citizens safe and root out terror suspects and cells. Perhaps the most eye opening piece of polling from the CNN survey is the 52% of the public who believe Afghanistan has turned into a similar situation faced by America during the Vietnam War.

An ABC/Washington Post survey contradicts those CNN findings somewhat in regards to Vietnam. In their poll just 35% feel the current situation has escalated to being the same as Vietnam against 58% who are still confident America will be able to avoid that. Still the ABC poll illustrates a similar theme to CNN’s findings of an American public who is both uncomfortable and unconfident regarding the situation. 49% against 47% of Americans overall believe the war has not been worth fighting.

Confidence in President Obama’s ability to handle to situation is shrinking with just 45% approving of the job he is doing against 47% who disapprove in that area. Those numbers are down ten-points from a 55-37% margin six-weeks ago. Furthermore over twice as many (63%) believe the Obama administration lacks a coherant plan for handling the situation in Afghanistan as those who do believe (31%) the White House has a clear focus.

Rasmussen Reports takes the issue a step further linking Pakistan to the discussion. As terror attacks continue relentlessly in that country 42% of the public believes victory to be impossible in Afghanistan if Pakistan remains unstable. A quite large percentage of Americans (35%) claim to be undecided on the topic with just 22% thinking it possible for our country to win in Afghanistan if the situation in Pakistan does not improve. 45% of the public believes it possible to still win the war in Afghanistan but a majority of poll responders believe that it either is not possible or remain unsure.

The leeriness of the American public regarding direct military action surfaces to some degree in two separate responses. The first shows that 79% of U.S. voters are concerned about the Taliban taking over Afghanistan with 45% of that block “very” concerned. Still, support for sending troops to combat radical Taliban forces is just 37%, with 34% who are not in favor and 30% who remain uncertain.