Poll: Public opinion remains divided on what to do in Afghanistan

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Little more than a day before President Obama’s much anticipated speech the public remains closely divided on the issue of America’s involvement in Afghanistan.

The latest poll released by USA Today/Gallup this morning indicates a modest shift in support for troop level increases from their previous poll over two weeks ago. Overall 47% of the 1,017 American adults surveyed by Gallup favor some sort of increase in troop levels. Specifically 37% favor an increase of 40,000 as recommended by General Stanley McChrystal, U.S. commander in Afghanistan, and an additional 10% of responders want an increase of under-40,000. Dropping five-points from the last poll 39% now want to see a reduction in troop levels, whereas 9% think current U.S. levels should be maintained.

The divided public places President Obama in a curious position, at least in terms of his own support on the issue of Afghanistan and foreign policy at large. Obama’s overall approval amongst Democrats remains high yet according to polling Dems are strongly against increases in troop levels. Just 29% want to see some sort of increase against 57% who favor a reduction in forces. Republicans meanwhile are solidly against Obama’s foreign policy and give him low approval marks in general of late. Yet 72% of Republicans support troop increases in Afghanistan, including nearly two-thirds (65%) that seek the requested 40,000. The key group of voters remains independents. Mirroring overall totals 46% of independents favor a troop increase. 36% specifically want 40,000 sent overseas against 37% who prefer a troop reduction and 8% wanting to keep the current number in tact.

The U.S. involvement in Afghanistan has not received the same level of criticism as Iraq in spite of the overwhelming number of Americans who rate the situation as poor. Holding relatively steady from previous polls 60% of the public feels the United States did not make a mistake by sending troops to Afghanistan after 9/11/01 against just 36% who do think it was error in judgment. This comes despite the 66% of Americans who also feel the situation abroad is going “badly” against just 32% who say it is going well.

The divided public opinion is reflected in others polls as well. Rasmussen Reports in a recent survey finds that 45% of Americans either want U.S. troops out of Afghanistan now or within a year against 43% who are opposed to any sort of timetable. Other mid-November polls track public opinion on a range of topics. The often contradictory looking responses from one poll or one question to the next illustrate the complexity of the issue in Afghanistan.

69% of adults according to a recent CBS News poll rate the situation in Afghanistan as going badly – just 23% feel it is going well. There is a more evenly divided number on the question of whether troop levels should be increased. 32% want an increase in levels, 39% a decrease and a large number (20%) would prefer our forces to remain at the same level they are currently. In spite of the plurality of those who would like to see a decrease in troop levels according to the CBS poll 36% believe the situation in Afghanistan will improve if the United States does in fact send more troops. Just 22% think such a move will make matters worse and 31% think it will have no impact.

CNN/Opinion Research mirrors the previously discussed Gallup poll with just 32% of its responders considering the situation in Afghanistan to being going well against 66% who believe it to be going poorly. A majority of the public (52%) also opposes the war in Afghanistan. The exact number of troop levels seems to be a sticking point for some. The CNN poll finds that a narrow plurality (50-49%) of responders favor an increase of 34,000 troops, but support falls to just 42% when asked whether they would favor the President sending a smaller number of troops overseas.

Lastly an ABC/Washington Post survey shows that by a 52-44% margin most adults think the war in Afghanistan has not been worth fighting when all factors are considered. There is a virtually even split (45-46%) between those who like to see a smaller or larger number of troops sent to Afghanistan in the event the President orders an increase – although no exact number is specified. 55% of Americans are at least somewhat confident President Obama can develop a strategy for success in Afghanistan although only 45% of those polled approve of his handling of the situation to this point.

By all accounts the President has difficult decisions to make regarding the situation in Afghanistan. Much of that should be revealed to the American public tomorrow night. With a large majority of Americans rating the situation in Afghanistan as poor, but at least a plurality in favor of some sort of troop increase Obama’s likely play is to announce that more American forces will join in the fight. The President does so however at the risk of alienating his own base just as any increase of smaller than 40,000 will not sit well with the majority of Republicans. The wild card here is political independents. Obama’s announcement Tuesday night will be deemed effective if he can convert a sizeable number of those skeptical or tentative to ultimately side with his plans for Afghanistan.