Election Night Review: What pollsters came out on top?

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A new Governor in New Jersey, McDonnell by a landslide in Virginia. Gay marriage shot down in Maine, an important Democratic Congressional win in GOP territory and surprisingly close race for Mayor in New York City.

These are just some of the notable results from last night, the first round of national elections since the innaguration of President Obama in January. There are of course no shortage of opinions on both the individual races and the potentially greater implications nationwide. By while the talking heads are left to their Monday Morning Quarter back routine on the results the pollsters were around well before Election Night last evening.

Following the polls can be fascinating just as it is informative. There is a high premium placed on the importance of polling and how it shapes both public opinion and our candidates’ message. Just as we scrutinize the candidates themselves so too it is worth taking a look at the performance of the pollsters. Keeping a running scorecard of the successes and failures from individual polling organizations is helpful. Who nailed it, who came close and who was way off the mark. The more accurate the poll to the eventual election result the more trusted the organization conducting the poll should be moving forward.

There were many notable races being watched nationally on top of the slew of typical local elections but not all benefited from significant national surveying. Below is a quick assessment of the results from four of Election Night races that were and who the big winners were in terms of polling.

New Jersey Governor: The Republican Party is celebrating the success of Chris Christie’s 49-45% victory over incumbent Governor Jon Corzine. While any number of polls showed a tight race up to the end few estimated the lack of impact third-party candidate Chris Daggett (5%) would have on the result. Mirroring the tightness of this race in terms of polling and the eventual result of the eleven major polling organizations surveying things in the past week just six (PPP, Survey USA, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen, Neighborhood Research, Daily Kos/R2000) correctly called the result for Christie.

Gold Medal: Rasmussen Reports (Christie 46%, Corzine 43%, Daggett 8%)

Silver Medal: Survey USA (Christie 45%, Corzine 42%, Daggett 10%)

Bronze Medal: Quinnipiac University (Christie 42%, Corzine 40%, Daggett 12%)

Golden “Razzie” Award: Suffolk University (Christie 33%, Corzine 42%, Daggett 7%)

Virginia Governor: Republican Bob McDonnell whipped Creigh Deeds in the other high-profile Governor’s race last night. Most media outlets are treating this as an as expected result but the margin won by McDonnell (18%) is rather impressive. Democratic turnout was low with those who cast votes having voted for John McCain by a 51-43% margin in last year’s election in spite of the fact that Obama won Virginia easily. Nine major polls were taken within the last week running up to the election and not a single one of them had McDonnell winning by less than ten-points.

Gold Medal: Survey USA (McDonnell 58%, Deeds 40%)

Silver Medal: Virginia Commonwealth Univeristy (McDonnell 54%, Deeds 36%)

Bronze Medal: Roanoke College (McDonnell 53%, Deeds 36%)

Golden “Razzie” Award: Daily Kos/Research 2000 (McDonnell 54%, Deeds 44%)

New York-23rd: Democrat Bill Owens was one of the few shinning lights for his party last evening as the surprise winner in the special election for New York’s 23rd Congressional District. The 23rd district gave pollsters fits in the days heading up to the election as most did not poll on the race. The district is strongly Republican but in typical New York fashion moderately so having voted for Obama in the last Presidential election. The final tallies haven’t fully been recorded yet but it appears Owens won by around a 50-45% margin. The Democratic win serves as a symbolic victory in what was disappointing evening for the party overall and especially its liberal base.

Gold Medal: Daily Kos/Research 2000 (Owens 33%, Hoffman 32%, Scozzafava 21%)

Silver Medal: Siena (Owens 36%, Hoffman 41%, Scozzafava 6%)

Bronze Medal: CFG/Basswood (Owens 27%, Hoffman 31%, Scozzafava 20%)

Golden “Razzie” Award: Public Policy Polling (Owens 34%, Hoffman 51%, Scozzafava 13%)

New York City Mayor: An as expected result belied by the shocking closeness of the race. Michael Bloomberg wins a third-term as Mayor of New York but does so with just a five-point victory over Democrat Bill Thompson. From exit polling it is clear that many New Yorkers chose to vote against Mayor Bloomberg for his overturning of city term limits that allowed him to run again in the first place. Bloomberg has to be counting his blessings today but needs to work hard to improve a suddenly questionable brand name. Precious few polls foresaw the tight race in America’s largest city.

Gold Medal: Survey USA (Bloomberg 53%, Thompson 42%)

Silver Medal: Quinnipiac (Bloomberg 50%, Thompson 38%)

Bronze Medal: Marist (Bloomberg 53%, Thompson 38%)

Golden “Razzie” Award: NONE

Honorary Medal: Daily Kos/Research-2000

Turnout in Maine on the issue of gay marriage was extremely high with an estimated half million residents casting votes. Barring any major discrepancies it appears that “Yes” votes on Question 1 overturning gay marriage won by a narrow 52-48% margin. There was little in-state polling on the topic but credit should awarded to Daily Kos/Research-2000. In a poll from as far back as mid-September Kos estimated that there was narrow support (48-46%) for overturning the law allowing same-sex couple to marry. If a simple majority of the remaining undecideds split in favor of the “Yes” vote the survey would have essentially nailed the 52-48% result from last night.

Overall we see a mixed bag of success from pollsters in the four races. It’s worth noting that although this article only highlights those who were most accurate or way off the mark most pollsters fell somewhere in middle of acceptable surveying of the races. Perhaps Survey USA who was good on the hotly contested New Jersey Governor’s race, essentially nailed it in Virginia and was the closest to being accurate in the surprisingly tight battle for New York City Mayor deserves recognition as the winner of the evening.