Poll: Is the Republican Party primed for a comeback in 2010?

Two recent polls from Rasmussen Reports and Gallup point to the strong possibility of a Republican comeback in the 2010 midterm elections.

The Rasmussen survey confirms a growing trend of voter preference for the Republican Party on a generic ballot for the Congressional elections held next November. Currently the GOP holds a 43-37% lead over the Democrats with a high number of unaffiliated voters (43-20%) favoring Republican candidates at this point. The Democratic Party has not led according to Rasmussen since holding a modest 41-39% advantage in late-June.

Whereas Rasmussen has shown a modest lead for the Republican Party over the past several months, Gallup’s survey showing a preference for the GOP is the first occurrence of that this year. Currently Republican candidates lead 48-44% on the hypothetical ballot. That is up from a two-point deficit last month and a 50-44% lead for the Democratic Party being tracked as recently as late-July.

While both parties get typically strong support from their constituents the major swing to the right has been with independent voters. 93% of Republicans favor a GOP candidate and 91% of Democrats prefer a member of their own party. The Republican Party now holds a considerable 52-30% lead amongst independents according to this latest Gallup poll however. This is a major change from polls taken in late-July that showed the Democrats holding on to a narrow 43-42% lead with independents.

The average approval rating of Congress taken from seven major national polls hovers at just 27%. The harshest verdict comes from Gallup who measures the House and Senate at just a 21% approval and 72% disapproval. A recent Associated Press-GFK survey shows somewhat more promising numbers (33-64%) but clearly those figures continue to be mired in the negatives.

Interestingly Democrats continue to show stronger approval ratings than their Republican counterparts despite these latest findings from Rasmussen and Gallup. The gap is not as wide as it has been in recent months however. According to one recent survey conducted by CNN/Opinion ResearchDemocratic approval ratings in Congress are at 38% with 59% disapproving. When asked the same question about the GOP adult responders approved 33% of the time against 66% who did not.

Another seemingly odd twist comes from Rasmussen, the same organization who has continuously measured a Republican advantage on their previously mentioned generic Congressional ballot since the end of the June. Rasmussen actually shows the margin of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats over Republican growing slightly. Currently the survey shows Democrats with a 5.9% membership edge nationally. That figure is up three-tenths of a point from September and a full point from as far back as July.

The success or failure of the Obama agenda will undoubtedly weigh heavily on the chances for many Democratic Congressman in vulnerable districts. History has not been kind to the party in control of the White House come time for the midterm elections. In only four instances has the party of the sitting President picked up seats in the House of Representatives during a midterm although it has happened twice in recent years.

The Republicans behind George W. Bush accomplished the rare feat bagging a net of eight seats in 2002 benefiting from redistricting after the 2000 census and the public approved "War on Terror". President Bill Clinton’s popularity balanced against the growing unpopularity of House Speaker New Gingrich allowed the Democrats to net an impressive five seats in 1998 bucking the trend of the infamous “six year itch”. The other two instances where gains were made came during the height of President Franklin Roosevelt’s “New Deal” in 1934 and in the middle of Republican Teddy Roosevelt’s popular first term in 1902 when an increase in the Electoral College added seats for both parties.

Gallup will not begin to model likely turnout until much closer to the 2010 elections, but given that Republicans usually have a turnout advantage, if normal turnout patterns prevail in the coming election, prospects for a good Democratic showing appear slim. Of course, the elections are still nearly 12 months away and conditions could shift back in the Democrats' favor over this time. -- Jeffrey M. Jones / Gallup.com