Analysis: Where will the 2010 midterms rank among greatest political comebacks?

With so much political talk of late revolving about the upcoming midterm elections it might be as good a time as any to take a look back. The Republican Party seems primed for a comeback in 2010 but whether than can retake both chambers of Congress or simply cut into the Democrats relatively large lead remains to be seen.

The GOP will need a net gain of forty seats to take back the House of Representatives and, as reported on previously, projection estimates range from anywhere to the upper-teens in seats added to as many as fifty. Ten victories in the Senate meanwhile will be necessary for control and most publications peg the Republican’s odds as fairly slim but hardly impossible in achieving that goal.

Below is a list of the ten biggest midterm election years for either party since the start of the 20th century. There have been 55-congressional elections over that period and 27 that have not coincided with a Presidential campaign.

Rank: 10-tied, Year: 2006, Party: Democratic, House: +31, Senate: +6

Notes: The current political landscape of America was dramatically shaped by the events of 2006. With historically low approval ratings President George W. Bush suffered major loses in the midterms that year during his sixth year in office. By historical standards the Democrats’ 31-House victories and six Senate pickups are fairly modest. It was important however in giving them control of both chambers of Congress for the first time since 1992. Harry Reid was ushered in as Senate Majority Leader and Nancy Pelosi became the first female Speaker of the House as a result of the Democrats congressional victories and a popular vote take of nearly 54%.

Rank: 10-tied, Year: 1966, Party: Republican, House: +47, Senate: +3

Notes: Many point to 1966 as the beginning of what would later be known as the “Republican Revolution” that culminated in Ronald Reagan’s realigning Presidential election of 1980. Due in a large part to President Lyndon Johnson’s crumbling popularity, the Vietnam War, race riots and conservative rejection to big government spending the GOP picked up 47-House seats and added an additional three in the Senate. Due to their large gains in Congress through the late 50s and early-60s the Democrats maintained a substantial majority in both chambers but the Republican comeback helped pave the way to Richard Nixon’s improbable election victory for President just two years later.

Rank: 9, Year: 1974, Party: Democratic, House: +49, Senate: +4

Notes: If 1966 was a year where the Republican Party engineered an impressive comeback that lead to two Richard Nixon election victories 1974 was the year that Nixon administration came crumbling down. It was miserable year for Republicans who were stunned by the President’s resignation after the Watergate scandal and were additionally criticized by the public after Gerald Ford’s subsequent pardoning of the now former President Nixon. Some close victories in the Senate increased the Democrats advantage to 61-38 over the Republicans and they picked up nearly 50 additional seats in the House after winning over 57% of the popular vote.

Rank: 8, Year: 1922, Party: Democratic, House: +76, Senate: +5

Notes: Undermined by a split in party leadership the Republicans suffered major midterm defeats, particularly in the House, in 1922. Warren G. Harding was riding a strong economy and successful Presidency two-years into his first time in the White House but at congressional levels the GOP had become divided by conservative and progressive factions within their party. Their massive 302-131 advantage in the House after Harding’s landslide victory in 1920 would erode to a 225-207 advantage over their Democratic rivals by way of 77 pickups for the minority party. The Republicans also lost six-seats in the Senate; five to the Democrats and one more to Henrik Shipstead of the Farm Labor Party. The GOP retained a 57-41-1 majority in the Senate.

Rank: 7, Year: 1942, Party: Republican, House: +47, Senate: +9

Notes: The outbreak of World War II and weariness over the long tenure of the Franklin Roosevelt administration resulted in significant Democratic loses in 1942. Breaking with tradition Roosevelt ran and won a third-term for President in 1940. The move was viewed with controversy, particularly by the political right. Additional weariness over FDR’s policies regarding the war and economy just loosening itself from the grips of the prolonged Great Depression eroded significant Democratic majorities in Congress. With 47-victories the Republicans climbed back to a modest 222-209 deficit in the House. Their impressive nine Senate wins meanwhile helped shrink what was a massive Democratic majority.

Rank: 6, Year: 1994, Party: Republican, House: +54, Senate: +8

Notes: it’s difficult to talk about 2010 without being reminded of 1994. That was the year the Republican Party, through a massive grassroots effort, took back both chambers of Congress with impressive margins of victory. Although their roughly six-point victory in the popular vote nationally appears fairly modest the cumulative result was an historic thumping. Winning 54-seats in the House and another eight in the Senate the GOP went from being a considerably minority party to the clear majority in the middle of President Bill Clinton’s mercurial first term in office. Becoming the first House Speaker to lose his seat since the Civil War Democrat Tom Foley gave way to Republican Newt Gingrich who would become the symbolic leader of the Republican Party for the rest of the decade.

Rank: 5, Year: 1930, Party: Democratic, House: +52, Senate: +8

Notes: The failing economy that presaged the Great Depression of the 1930s resulted in predictable and resounding loses for the Republican Party in the 1930 midterm elections. Similar by numbers to what took place in the opposite direction in 1994 the impact of what took place decades earlier gets our edge as slightly more significant due its paving of the way for Franklin Roosevelt’s landslide victory in 1932 and sustained Democratic majorities for many years to come. Eight Senate victories left the Democrats just one seat shy of a majority although the Farmer-Labor with one seat acted as a strong ally to Democrats and essentially balanced the chamber. The GOP retained a narrow edge in the House as well but special election victories for the Democrats after the election helped them to a 218-216 lead.

Rank: 4, Year: 1938, Party: Republican, House: +81, Senate: +6

Notes: Although majorities in the House and Senate were still many years away for the Republican Party the GOP did mount an impressive comeback in 1938. It was the middle of President Franklin Roosevelt’s second term. FDR swept to a landslide victory in 1936 and helped usher in an era of political dominance for his Democratic Party, but many rejected his policies and political decisions. Confidence in the “New Deal” was perhaps weakened by an economic recession that hit in 1937. The President’s infamous “court packing” plan was also met with heavy resistance from the GOP and public alike. Then there was the simply fact that with such large majorities and a number of freshman congressman on board after 1936 it would simply be difficult to defend such large political territory. The Republicans won 81-House seats and six in the Senate but the Democrats retained their large majorities in both chambers.

Rank: 3, Year: 1910, Party: Democratic, House: +58, Senate: +10

Notes: Before the ratification of the 17th Amendment U.S. Senators were chosen by a state legislature. 1910 was the last midterm election where a state by state popular vote was not used, but even by then many parts of the country were adopting the new format. Struggling for years as the minority party the Democrats launched an impressive comeback in 1910 that would set the stage for Woodrow Wilson’s Presidential victories in 1912 and 1916. The Dems picked up ten House seats although they still trailed their Republican opposition by eight. Their gains in the House were more impressive. Major factions within the Republican Party between conservative followers of President William Howard Taft and progressives loyal to former party leader Teddy Roosevelt helped the Democrats win a total of 58-seats and retake control of the House. Roosevelt would go on the challenge sitting President Taft for the GOP nomination just two years later and launch an impressive albeit unsuccessful campaign as a third-party candidate for President.

Rank: 2, Year: 1946, Party: Republican, House: +55, Senate: +13

Notes: Hailed as the “greatest Republican victory since Appomattox ” by the Chicago Tribune the 1946 midterm elections swept the GOP into power in both the House and Senate for the first time since 1930. The successful Presidency of Franklin Roosevelt ended abruptly in 1945. Upon his death Vice President Harry Truman assumed the reigns but found political waters difficult to navigate. Strapped with tough choices, controversial decisions and a sagging approval rating the Republicans launched a massive attack in Congress during the 1946 midterms. Trailing 242-191 in the House the Republicans came out of 1946 with an impressive 246-188 lead. In the Senate their staggering thirteen-seat pickup swung a 57-38 deficit to a 51-45 seat majority. The Democrats failed to pickup a single Senate seat and were forced to play defense. The Republican landslide made President Truman’s stunning victory in the 1948 election all the more impressive. 1946 was also notable for the addition of two freshman congressman to the House; John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts and Richard M. Nixon of California .

Rank: 1, Year: 1958, Party: Democratic, House: +49, Senate: +16

Notes: It was a close call but our winner for most impressive midterm election year goes to the Democratic Party from 1958. Many moderate Republicans had come into political power following huge victories for the GOP in the 1946 election and on the coattails of popular President Dwight Eisenhower. America had enjoyed a post-war economic boom through the late-40s and 50s as well but an economic recession in 1958 reversed things temporarily. Cold-War hysteria had gripped the country but a liberal backlash to the practices of Joe McCarthy’s communist witch-hunt as well as strong labor union opposition to President Eisenhower’s right-to-work programs set the stage for a Democratic revival. Although they held a solid majority in the House and a narrow lead in the Senate the Democrats 49-House pickups and whopping sixteen-Senate victories ushered in a second wave of political dominance for the Democrats that had started under FDR in the 30s. Successes in 1958 helped set the stage for John F. Kennedy’s narrow victory in the 1960 Presidential election and gained both he and successor Lyndon Johnson favorable support towards their major social and economic programs of the 1960s.

Analysis: Republicans will make midterm gains, but taking back Congress is doubtful for 2010

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After making impressive gains since 2006 that included a sweeping mandate in the Oval Office Democrats appear stuck in a rut. Republicans are energized meanwhile and have crafted a message of fiscal responsibility while taking advantage of the low approval of the Democratically controlled Congress and shrinking popularity of President Obama. It all sounds familiar.

Cries of 1994, the year the GOP gained 52-seats to take back control of the House of the Representatives, can be heard. Health care was a big issue then just as it is now. The Democrats had a President occupying the White House but struggling with a shaky approval rating in his second year, just as they do now. Many political observers have talked about the possibility of a Republican renaissance in 2010 even while polls show them still licking their wounds from a difficult recent stretch.

One of these observers, Isaac Wood, is a contributor to Larry J. Sabato’s much hailed “Crystal Ball” website. Sabato is the director for the Center of Politics and a professor at the University of Virginia. The “Crystal Ball” was perhaps the most accurate predictor from a pool of dozens of analysts on Election Night 2006. That year Sabato and company accurately forecasted the Democrats 29-seat pickup in the House as well as their takeover of the Senate.

The Republican Party would need a net gain of 40-seats to take back the House this year and, after Scott Brown’s stunning special election victory in Massachusetts last month, a total of ten victories for Senate control. While Republican heavyweights such as Karl Rove are pointing towards factors that could pave the way for an autumn political season resembling that of 1994, Wood sees a rather modest comeback for the GOP underway.

1994 was the only time in the last 35-years that either political party picked up over 40-seats in an election. Isaac Wood does not predict the Republican wave in 2010 as strong enough to put the party back in power either. The “Crystal Ball” projects a Republican pickup of 24-30 House seats, averaging out to 27 as of February. In the Senate they see seven additional seats as likely to be filled by the GOP starting next year, three short of what is needed to recapture that body.

“Crystal Ball” labels 102-districts as being competitive in 2010. The Democrats may have hit a ceiling after impressive gains in the past two Congressional elections but there is still hope for the party that they can minimize loses this November. Barring the unforeseen the economy will of course take center stage. While job loses should continue to hinder the Democrats throughout the year, if other aspects continue to rebound and if President Obama can keep his approval ratings at or above the 50% threshold losses could be slight for the party in power.

Since World War II the average pick-up in a midterm year is 22-house seats. Currently the “Crystal Ball” shows thirteen of those seats very likely or guaranteed to fall to the Republican Party and another eighteen toss-ups or leaners could be heading in that direction over the next few months. Unlike the Democrats in 2006 however the GOP is vulnerable in a few races where they currently hold seats. The Democrats are favored to win in Delaware and Louisiana and have a good shot at picking up control of a district in Illinois as well.

As is usually the case come midterms when one party substantially outnumbers the other in Congress they also have more territory to defend. This makes the chore of keeping wide margins in tact all the more difficult. By sheer numbers as well as the political tide that favors Republicans this season fending off advances will be a difficult task for the Democrats. Beyond the competitive races there are 28-districts that the “Crystal Ball” rates as likely holds for the Dems and another nineteen leaning their direction. The GOP meanwhile has seven races leaning their direction and another fourteen likely to be retained. This gap of twenty-six seats in addition to other favorable dynamics in competitive races for Republicans helps depict their potential upside heading towards November.

Wood, Sabato and their team at “Crystal Ball” have labeled 102 of the 435-races for 2010 as being competitive. Below is the breakdown between parties;

Competitive Seats: 102-total
Democratic: 78 (28-likely, 19-leans, 18-toss, 13-leans GOP)
Republican: 24 (14-likely, 7-leans, 1-toss, 2-leans DEM)

The ceiling for the Republican Party then would be 78. That would mean Republican victories in the total number of competitive races in seats the Democrats hold without any loses suffered in the 24 the GOP currently occupies. Since only a miracle or monumental disaster for the Democrats could make that number obtainable the next relevant number is 50. This would again include the Republicans defending all 24-competitive seats they currently hold while picking up victories in every race where A) a Democrat is favored to lose, B) in a toss-up battle, or C) those that currently lean in the direction of the GOP. Again this seems like wishful thinking especially when considering Republican vulnerabilities in at least two House races and the practical impossibility of winning every race come November that they trail modestly in as of February.

The magic number of course is 40 and piecing together a scenario where Republicans can simply take back the House with a narrow majority is far more manageable.

If for instance the GOP retained all 24 of its vulnerable seats, picked up the thirteen Democratic possessions that polls show leaning Republican and the eighteen toss-up races their total would balloon to 31. To get the extra nine victories needed for a majority the GOP would then need to win slightly less than half of the nineteen races where Democrats are favored to win. They could also win a majority of those Democratic leaners or pull off a few upsets in races where they are heavy underdogs, ala Scott Brown, to help offset the strong possibility of losing control of a couple of their own seats.

While many could look at the “Crystal Ball” prediction of only 27-victories for the Republican Party as low-balling some basic statistical analysis could show a strong possibility of even less than that total. Looking back at those 102-competitive races perhaps we can attribute odds to the likelihood that each one will be retained by one party or taken away by the other. In all instances where either a Democrat and Republican candidate is “likely” to win lets assume their chances of actual victory are 90%. In races where one or the other “leans” as the favorite we’ll place their odds at 70%. “Toss-up” races then would be a 50-50 proposition.

Using these figures the Democrats would suffer several defeats but still retain an average of 51.4 of their 78 “vulnerable” seats this November, nearly 66%. The Republicans then would pickup the other 26.6 seats lost by Democratic candidates, similar to the 27 projected by the “Crystal Ball”. However we need to apply this same math to the 24-seats currently under the control of the GOP. That means Republicans on average are likely to retain 18.6 while losing 5.4 of their currently held seats, or 78% retained.

Subtracting their net losses in currently held seats from their net gains in those under Democrat control we can calculate the Republican Party will, on average, net 21.2 seats this November. That’s similar to the historical midterm average of 22 and while it shows progress for a party that has struggled in recent years it still keeps the GOP well shy of their goal to retake control of the House of the Representatives.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / STEVEN SENNE

Analysis: In wake of sagging poll numbers can Sarah Palin still be GOP's nominee for 2012?

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Buried in the middle of lengthy new poll from ABC News / Washington Post are the latest findings on how the American public feels about one Sarah Palin. Fresh off her highly publicized and somewhat maligned keynote address at the Tea Party convention last week Sarah has herself another dose of bad news.

Just 37% of American adults have a favorable impression of Palin. 55% view her unfavorably. That is the lowest level of support and highest level of opposition yet recorded. Perhaps most damaging of all is a twelve-point drop in the number of Americans who believe the former Vice Presidential candidate is “qualified to serve as President.” Just over a quarter (26%) now thinks a Palin Administration can execute the duties of the White House competently. Better than seven in ten (71%) disagree.

That the new ABC / Post release is a random survey of just over a thousand U.S. adults and not a more targeted sample of registered or likely votes, who more often vote Republican, should offer little consolation to Palin and her supporters. Regardless of who is polling in the fifteen months since the election of 2008 the former Alaskan Governor has not approached the levels of enthusiasm she obtained in the months leading up to her and John McCain’s defeat that November.

Name recognition continues to be the political battering ram for Palin. Next to President Obama she is quite possibly the most identifiable current figure in American politics. In spite of her sluggish appeal from adults across the board and from all political affiliations her support within the GOP has deteriorated little. Gallup ranked her second behind Mitt Romney as the candidate Republicans would most like to see as their party’s nominee for 2012. Earlier today the same question was asked and again Sarah came in second place with the support of 11% of the GOP. Romney leads with 14%, John McCain is third drawing support from 7%, Mike Huckabee has faded to just 3% meanwhile and a large block of Republicans (42%) prefer a different candidate than the eleven listed from that poll.

Down but far from out Palin continues to hold on to a solid majority of support from her own party and 37% of Republicans still hold a “strongly favorably” view her. However only 45% of conservatives according to the ABC / Post survey consider Palin qualified for the Presidency. That’s a sharp drop from the nearly two-thirds (66%) who believed she was just a few months ago.

The Republican focus is perhaps sharply divided as well. Seeking to defeat President Obama, who is largely unpopular with GOP voters even by the normal standards of a critical opposition party, many within Republican ranks believe they’ll need to put their best foot forward in 2012. This could mean supporting a candidate that is more likely to win in the general election but who doesn’t necessarily appeal to all corners of the base rather than risking losing with a candidate who is a party favorite but can’t generate independent or moderate Democratic support. Of course it could also be argued that this sort of populist strategy backfired in the most recent election of 2008 when moderate John McCain lost handedly to Barack Obama.

Speaking again of Sarah’s chances Nate Silver from Fivethirtyeight.com recently assessed the possibilities for Palin to make it through the Republican primary in 2012.

Silver weighs several variables that will likely affect the outcome of the primary season two-years from now and places them in groupings. Fundraising for example could be a particularly effective tool for Sarah Palin in relation to her Republican counterparts. Her overall reach may be more limited than a Romney or Huckabee but her followers are more devoted, particularly in the western United States and in her home state of Alaska.

State by state variables from 2008 exit polls help reveal the nature of the electorate and what types of voters supported the McCain/Palin ticket that year, not just how many of them did. Palin seems to do best among those voters without college degrees and in states where there are a higher number of self described conservatives. The specific batch of conservatives that Palin runs strongest with are white Evangelical voters. Mike Huckabee however is also widely popular within that group and could outflank Palin in states with large Evangelical populations. Lastly Silver defines Palin’s best topic in attracting votes as through energy and terrorism policy. Sarah as explained by Silver requires less policy nuance in gaining traction with two of the more general topics that should be core issues in her still undetermined Presidential campaign.

Sarah’s strength is typically in western states and the Deep South. Fitting the bill Silver rates her twelve best states in order as being; Alaska, Wyoming, Mississippi, North Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Alabama, Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Oregon and Idaho. Conversely her weakest regions are the southwest and northeast and in states such as; Massachusetts, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, New York, Illinois, Utah, Delaware, Michigan, California and Pennsylvania.

The key early states in the primary, often responsible engineering critical momentum for a campaign, are Iowa, South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire. On average the four states rank around the middle of the pack for Sarah Palin in regards to her electoral strengths and weaknesses. Iowa and South Carolina in particular give her a good opportunity for victory whereas New Hampshire and Nevada are somewhat less likely.

Of course who else is running and in what specific order states will be voting could play a key role in determining what is expected to be a hotly contested Republican primary for 2012. Palin could do fairly well in what Silver describes are “second wave” voting states that play to her strengths in regions like the northwest and Deep South. Surviving through the early rounds should also build momentum that could carry her through certain states where she is less popular. However the exact order of those states is yet to be determined. Palin also could lose to Huckabee early on in Iowa, a state the former Arkansas Governor won in 2008, instantly undercutting her upward trajectory. She could also get hammered on the issues from political pros like Mitt Romney or simply lose to Huckabee or a wild-card candidate like Pennsylvania’s Rick Santorum with values voters in a war of attrition.

Ultimately Silver sees three different winnable scenarios for Sarah Palin in 2012.

1) She wins Iowa, South Carolina and a handful of “second wave” states primarily in the northwest. By doing so her momentum, barring any possible missteps, ought to be sufficient to defeat whoever is left standing in a narrowing field of Republican candidates.

2) This is the most complicated of scenarios. Palin needs to finish a strong second in Iowa presumably to Huckabee or a popular midwestern candidate. She then needs to pull out a win in South Carolina and power her way through to several victories in the aforementioned “second wave” states. She then wins some other large and important Republican stronghold in the south and rust belt region such as Texas, Florida or Georgia, Indiana or North Carolina, Ohio or Wisconsin.

3) Sarah takes Iowa as outlined in the first scenario and runs a strong second in South Carolina losing to someone other than Romney or another out of region candidate. Once again her best chance in “second wave” states that would come next would be to win big and regain momentum. Then the luck of the draw comes into play. Palin could be helped if the region that consists or the lower-Midwest, Deep South, Pacific Northwest, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Maryland votes next and she secures important victories in a handful of those states, most notably Texas. If the group that includes to rust belt, New York, Georgia and Florida votes next she’ll need to bet all of her chips on battleground states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio. If neither if those regions are the next to vote Sarah could be in serious trouble.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Ed Reinke

Poll: Latest political trends show most states leaning Democratic yet conservative

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Unaffiliated voters are growing in numbers, the Democrats remain strong at local levels yet conservatives outnumber liberals in every U.S. state.

These finding come compliments of recent studies from Rasmussen Reports and Gallup tracking current partisan trends and the ideological landscape of America in early-2010.

A plurality of adults (35.4%) still refer to themselves as Democrats but that is now the lowest total recorded in more than seven years according to Rasmussen. Each month the organization updates its partisan trends recording ideological shifts amongst Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated adults. In January of 2009 Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 8.3% nationally and a year earlier their advantage was 5.6%. Now that total is down to 3.1% rebounding somewhat from a 1.5% lead in December that was the narrowest Democratic Party advantage since August of 2005.

Although they’ve made up some ground over the past year it’s not all roses for the Republican Party either. 32.3% of the country now view themselves as Republican and while that total is within an average range for the Party it is only equal to the current total of unaffiliated adults. Also standing at 32.3% unaffiliateds are at their highest level since May of 2007, the last time that they were equal to or exceeded the number of Republicans in the country. The growing displeasure for both major parties may also be reflected in the 65% of voters now holding mainstream or populist social and political views. Rasmussen describes mainstream Americans as leery of both big government and big business and more likely to trust the wisdom of their fellow citizens.

“The American people don’t want to be governed from the left, the right or the
center. The American people want to govern themselves.” – Scott Rasmussen / Rasmussen Reports

Turning our attention to two recent studies by Gallup we take a state by state look at current party identification and political ideologies. Gallup conducted their research through a massive sample size of nearly 354,000 adults nationwide including more than 20,000 interviews in Pennsylvania alone. What they uncovered were slight shifts from 2008 to 2009 favoring Republicans but not enough to offset the clear advantage Democrats hold at state and local levels. The survey measured the number of Americans solidly or leaning toward the Democratic Party at 49%, down from 52% in 2008. Republicans meanwhile gained slightly up to 41% in 2009 from 40% last year.

The District of Columbia who has voted for the Democratic candidate in every Presidential election in its history has nearly 78% affiliating as a Democrat – a margin of 66-percentage points over Republicans. At 54% and holding a 22-point margin Wyoming is the most Republican state in the country. Only five states (Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, Alaska, and Alabama) feature a considerable advantage of better than five-percentage points favoring the Republican Party. On the flip side a whopping 34-states, including the District of Columbia, have greater than a five-point advantage in Democratic affiliation.

In the Tri-State area Delaware ranks strongest for the Democratic Party with a 21% advantage over Republicans. New Jersey also scores high for the Democrats holding an eighteen-point lead over the GOP. Pennsylvania meanwhile gets lumped in closer to the middle of the pack but still offers a twelve-percentage point lead for Democrats over Republicans in the state.

The Democratic advantage in party identification is tempered somewhat by a large ideological lead for conservatives over liberals. As previously mentioned there are no states where liberals outnumber conservatives, although the District of Columbia has a 15% liberal to conservative gap, and in only three states (Vermont, Hawaii, and Massachusetts) are the ideological totals nearly identical.

Conservatives outnumbered liberals 40-21% in 2009 according to Gallup research with an additional 36% identifying as politically moderate. Alabama is both the most conservative state (49.4%) and features the widest disparity (34.6%) between major groupings on the political right and left. The fewest liberals (13.9%) for a state reside in Alabama’s neighbor Mississippi. At 28% Vermont contains the most liberals outside of D.C. and also features the smallest conservative to liberal margin of just 0.8%. Over half of the states in America (26) have conservatives outnumbering liberals by over twenty-percentage points.

Typically Democratic states also tend have more politically moderate adults. Rhode Island, Hawaii, West Virginia, Vermont, Connecticut and Delaware all are composed of moderates by more than 40%. The First State however ranks just 30th on the list of most liberal states (19%) behind Pennsylvania’s 23rd ranking (20%) and New Jersey who is number nine (24.7%).

Analysis: Can Sarah Palin win the Republican nomination? What is she up against

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Speculation continues to circulate as to whether Sarah Palin will officially make a bid for the White House in 2012.

Never straying far from the media vista Palin has once again been plastered on the front pages and no doubt received heavy discussion around water coolers this week. Her recently released autobiography is a bestseller, she has made a number of high profile interviews and even found controversy along way – this time slamming Newsweek as “sexist” and “out of context” for her portrayal on a recent cover of the magazine.

Yet it’s the subject matter from publications such as Newsweek openly declaring, as their headlines suggests, (“How Do You Solve a Problem Like Sarah Palin: She’s bad news for the GOP – and for everybody else, too.”) that brings to light the important questions. Often on the campaign trail last year Republican Presidential nominee John McCain accused then Senator Barack Obama of being more of a national celebrity than political statesman. If however Obama was to be the celebrity du jour than Palin has become a genuine pop-star. She holds court over legions of adoring fans but receives the scorn of just as many. Overcoming both political obstacles and public perception is a treacherous road traveled but Palin needs to sustain her level of popularity while proving her substance to a sizable block of skeptics. Let the numbers speak.

Recent polls have indicated that Sarah Palin has fallen to a distant third in Republican preference for their party’s nominee in 2012. That said a recent Rasmussen survey indicates a considerable number of GOP voters are still on board with Sarah as the 59-21% margin of those who feel she shares their values against those who do not would attest. This comes at a time when just 18% of Republicans believe their GOP representatives in Congress have done a good job representing their base. Being a relative newcomer to the scene and not tarnished as a current member of the House or Senate Palin perhaps has an opportunity to succeed as the non-establishment candidate even after being tapped as John McCain’s running mate just last year.

While much has been made of Palin’s role and whether she is a good thing for the Republican Party just 18% of those in GOP camp consider her a divisive force, and only 26% of voters overall share in that opinion. On the negative side Rasmussen also concludes that just 21% of Americans have a very favorable opinion against 29% who hold a very negative view of Sarah Palin. These figures mirror the results of other national polls showing that in spite of her popularity Sarah’s standing with the public is troublesome for a presumptive Presidential candidate.

A recent CBS News poll finds that just 23% of adults hold a favorable view of the former Alaskan Governor against 38% who do not. Of equal concern these figures are virtually identical to the last CBS poll taken on Palin from early-July. Additionally just 24% of Americans claim they would like to see Sarah Palin run for President in three years and only 26% think she can be effective in office if elected.

Less harsh but still clearly mired in the negatives are the results from an ABC/Washington Post survey. In this poll 43% of adults view Sarah Palin favorably against 52% who hold a negative view. This is actually a slight rebound for Palin from their last poll in mid-July but a huge decline in her favorable numbers from the early-fall of 2008. 46% of poll responders claim they would at least consider voting "Palin for President" in 2012 but only 9% of that block suggests they would “definitely” vote for her against 53% who definitely would not. Furthermore Sarah is seen as being qualified for the position of President by just 38% of adults nationwide according to this ABC poll.

Still there are many reasons why Sarah Palin should be considering capable of making a successful run for the White House, or at least why she should not be counted out.

Nate Silver of www.fivethirtyeight.com gives a list of ten specific reasons (read his full comments here) to believe in Sarah's chances of success. Included are the following; Palin creates a level of enthusiasm among supporters that no other GOP hopeful currently has and this could be particularly helpful for her in the primaries. The likely prospects that the Republican Party will rebound in the 2010 midterms creates a more favorable political base for Palin than what currently exists. The other candidates are flawed according to Silver’s assessment of the current GOP field, and there is of course the chance that one or more of the top candidates might not run for President. Palin’s love/hate relationship with the media is good for ratings and circulation and at least in the primaries that same media will be rooting for her.

Palin has also created a rather defensive position that can work in her favor against other candidates. She is tough to campaign against and any slight or criticism that strays from the political realm will have her supporters rallying around her. Silver also contends that attempts by the Republican establishment to neuter her may backfire again playing into the victimization complex held by Palin and her faithful. The fact that there are virtually no moderates left in the Republican base probably works in Palin’s favor as well, as most voters that hold negatives views of her are either found in the Democratic Party, are political independents or make up the small percentage of liberal Republicans. The aforementioned either will not be eligible to vote in the Republican primaries or not number enough to keep her from competing in the early rounds.

The idea that parties tend to nominate more extreme candidates in elections against incumbents is good for Palin if true. It creates a healthy and visible difference between the candidate and who they would be running against from the incumbent party, in this case President Obama in all likelihood. The concept of striking differences and a battle for the soul of American politics (ex: Republican vs. Democrat, Conservative vs. Liberal, Outsider vs. Establishment, Democracy vs. Socialism, Woman vs. Man, etc) is a tasty proposition for a party with bruised confidence. That said the more radical candidates generally do not fair well in these match ups. Barry Goldwater, George McGovern, Walter Mondale all lost in landslide elections whereas the more status quo options for either party (Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton) were quite successful.

The splintered Republican base ultimately creates an opportunity for a candidate such as Sarah Palin where in other elections and eras she may not be perceived as a contender. That she gets the new media, and the new media gets her is an important consideration as Palin looks to “overcome what I expect will prove to be a relatively shoddy traditional infrastructure” Silver concludes.

PHOTO CREDIT: NEWSWEEK (FILE PHOTO)

Poll: Is the Republican Party primed for a comeback in 2010?

Two recent polls from Rasmussen Reports and Gallup point to the strong possibility of a Republican comeback in the 2010 midterm elections.

The Rasmussen survey confirms a growing trend of voter preference for the Republican Party on a generic ballot for the Congressional elections held next November. Currently the GOP holds a 43-37% lead over the Democrats with a high number of unaffiliated voters (43-20%) favoring Republican candidates at this point. The Democratic Party has not led according to Rasmussen since holding a modest 41-39% advantage in late-June.

Whereas Rasmussen has shown a modest lead for the Republican Party over the past several months, Gallup’s survey showing a preference for the GOP is the first occurrence of that this year. Currently Republican candidates lead 48-44% on the hypothetical ballot. That is up from a two-point deficit last month and a 50-44% lead for the Democratic Party being tracked as recently as late-July.

While both parties get typically strong support from their constituents the major swing to the right has been with independent voters. 93% of Republicans favor a GOP candidate and 91% of Democrats prefer a member of their own party. The Republican Party now holds a considerable 52-30% lead amongst independents according to this latest Gallup poll however. This is a major change from polls taken in late-July that showed the Democrats holding on to a narrow 43-42% lead with independents.

The average approval rating of Congress taken from seven major national polls hovers at just 27%. The harshest verdict comes from Gallup who measures the House and Senate at just a 21% approval and 72% disapproval. A recent Associated Press-GFK survey shows somewhat more promising numbers (33-64%) but clearly those figures continue to be mired in the negatives.

Interestingly Democrats continue to show stronger approval ratings than their Republican counterparts despite these latest findings from Rasmussen and Gallup. The gap is not as wide as it has been in recent months however. According to one recent survey conducted by CNN/Opinion ResearchDemocratic approval ratings in Congress are at 38% with 59% disapproving. When asked the same question about the GOP adult responders approved 33% of the time against 66% who did not.

Another seemingly odd twist comes from Rasmussen, the same organization who has continuously measured a Republican advantage on their previously mentioned generic Congressional ballot since the end of the June. Rasmussen actually shows the margin of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats over Republican growing slightly. Currently the survey shows Democrats with a 5.9% membership edge nationally. That figure is up three-tenths of a point from September and a full point from as far back as July.

The success or failure of the Obama agenda will undoubtedly weigh heavily on the chances for many Democratic Congressman in vulnerable districts. History has not been kind to the party in control of the White House come time for the midterm elections. In only four instances has the party of the sitting President picked up seats in the House of Representatives during a midterm although it has happened twice in recent years.

The Republicans behind George W. Bush accomplished the rare feat bagging a net of eight seats in 2002 benefiting from redistricting after the 2000 census and the public approved "War on Terror". President Bill Clinton’s popularity balanced against the growing unpopularity of House Speaker New Gingrich allowed the Democrats to net an impressive five seats in 1998 bucking the trend of the infamous “six year itch”. The other two instances where gains were made came during the height of President Franklin Roosevelt’s “New Deal” in 1934 and in the middle of Republican Teddy Roosevelt’s popular first term in 1902 when an increase in the Electoral College added seats for both parties.

Gallup will not begin to model likely turnout until much closer to the 2010 elections, but given that Republicans usually have a turnout advantage, if normal turnout patterns prevail in the coming election, prospects for a good Democratic showing appear slim. Of course, the elections are still nearly 12 months away and conditions could shift back in the Democrats' favor over this time. -- Jeffrey M. Jones / Gallup.com

Poll: Huckabee & Romney remain GOP front-runners for 2012

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Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney continue to sit most favorably amongst a field of Republicans being considered for President in 2012.

Two and a half weeks ago a Rasmussen Reports survey as reported on here indicated that Republican preferences were highest for Huckabee (29%) and Romney (24%), followed in third place by Sarah Palin (18%). These figures are echoed in a recent poll released by Gallup/USA Today.

The first question was posed to Republicans only, asking them whether they would “seriously” consider supporting a field of six GOP hopefuls. Mike Huckabee again scored highest at 71% support from his own party against just 25% who would not support his campaign. Mitt Romney (65-31%) and Sarah Palin (65-33%) shared similar levels of support and opposition. Newt Gingrich is also a contender within the GOP ranks as 60% of Republicans would seriously considering voting for the former Speaker of the House against just 35% who would not. Rounding out the field are the lesser known Tim Pawlenty (32-48%) and Hanley Barbour (26-52%) who clearly need to work on their brand name appeal if they hope to compete with the four assumed frontrunners.

The good news for the top four potential candidates is the level of support they receive from their own party is fairly high. The bad news is no Republican candidate approaches 50% support from adults nationwide regardless of party.

Mike Huckabee again leads the field but the number of those who would seriously consider supporting the former Arkansas Governor’s campaign against those who would not is mired at 40% and 51% respectively. Mitt Romney’s appeal is similar with a 39-51% margin and Sarah Palin, who was shown to struggle heavily amongst Democratic voters, posts a less than desirable 33-63% split. Newt Gingrich (29-63%) has a hard time with Democrats and independents as well with the two lesser known candidates Pawlenty (18-60%) and Barbour (15-65%) struggling for support and recognition in these early stages.

Amongst their support from the opposition party Mitt Romney is the only Republican in this field of six who cracks 20% from Democrats who would seriously consider supporting his candidacy. As Gallup points out only around one in ten members from either party vote for an opposition candidate come election time. President Obama took just 9% of the Republican Party vote in 2008 and John McCain was supported by only 10% of Democrats. Lastly Gallup asks adults nationwide whether they think each of the candidates are qualified to be President. Again it’s Huckabee (50-36%) and Romney (49-39%) leading the field and the only two Republicans on the list who receive a positive margin of support. Long time politician Newt Gingrich is slightly in the negatives (44-46%), but it is Sarah Palin’s numbers that have to be viewed most alarming by her supporters. Less than a third (31%) of the electorate considers Palin qualified for the role of President against 62% who do not. Tim Pawlenty (25-51% and Haley Barbour (18-57%) again round out the field far behind the frontrunners.

An unscientific poll of 2,043 voters taken on this site last month found Mitt Romney (32%) to be the most preferred candidate to win the Republican nomination in 2012. He was followed by 19% support for Mike Huckabee, just 4% for Sarah Palin and a barely traceable 2% going to Newt Gingrich. The largest block (42%) however remains those who are either uncertain or support someone other than the top-four choices. With over two and a half years to go and numbers like these the GOP nomination is still clearly anyone’s game.

Photo credit: Associated Press / Manual Balce Ceneta

Poll: Palin plummets, Huckabee leads field of GOP hopefuls for 2012

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Two recent polls show a further decline in support for Sarah Palin while Mike Huckabee leads a hypothetical field of Republican candidates for President in 2012.

Sarah’s slide is a rather sudden one after several months of maintaining fairly steady numbers. The presence of the electrifying GOP upstart who joined John McCain’s Presidential ticket last year was greeted warmly by Republicans and many independents alike. Her recent struggles have been reported on by the likes of Gallup and Rasmussen Reports. In late-July Palin’s favorable ratings dropped into the negatives for the first time. Now her numbers amongst adults are mired at a 40% positive against 50% negative split, by far the worst ratings she has received since her introduction to the national stage in late-August of last year.

This is not the first time Palin has seen a dip in her popularity. Her 53% favorability rating after the 2008 Republican Convention marked a high point. It was undercut by the loss of the McCain-Palin ticket in the general election that fall which dropped her numbers to 42% according to Gallup however. Over the next seven months the now former Alaskan Governor saw her favorable and unfavorable figures run about even but this latest poll indicates a considerable spike in negative feelings toward her. While most Republicans (69%) like Sarah Palin a healthy quarter of the party holds a negative view of her. Democrats on the other hand have a strongly negative view of Palin to the tune of a 72-14% unfavorable to favorable margin. Independents meanwhile are also growing disillusion with Palin as her 41-48% favorable to unfavorable ratings atest.

Perhaps due in part to her resignation as Governor of Alaska, criticized in many circles, Palin’s decline has opened the door for other GOP hopefuls. Most notable on this list is former Arkansas Governor and current Fox TV host Mike Huckabee who ran a strong albeit losing campaign for President last year. One woman’s loss is another man’s gain according to polls from Rasmussen that show a six-point decline for Sarah Palin since July that corresponds to a seven-percent improvement for Huckabee.

Overall Huckabee leads a field of four legitimate contenders pulling in support of 29% of likely Republican voters in 2012. Mitt Romeny runs second with support of 24% of the party and Palin as previously mentioned has dropped to third at 18%. Also in the running is former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at 14% with Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty a distant fifth contender at 4% support. Even worse for Sarah Palin are the 21% of Republicans who say they would least like to see her win the party nomination. The frontrunners Huckabee (9%) and Romney (8%) are both in the single-digits in that category of voter non-preference.

In the event that the battle for the Republican nomination shapes up to be a two-way race both Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are again sitting pretty against Sarah Palin. Romney leads Palin by fifteen-points and Huckabee scores a 55-35% blowout victory on the hypothetical ballot. While fairly irrelevant due to the unlikely scenario that she’d win the Democratic nomination away from President Obama in 2012 Rasmussen also showed Hillary Clinton holding a sizeable 51-39% advantage over Palin in late-July.

In spite of her current struggles Sarah Palin continues to be part of any conversation involving GOP contenders for the 2012 Presidential race. Her autobiography Going Rogue: An American Life is already a best seller still a month before its actual release. Palin’s approval ratings remained high in her home state of Alaska even after the broad disappointment of her resignation this summer. Republicans as a group also remain hopeful for 2012. Rasmussen indicates that 81% of voters think it at least somewhat likely one of their own will defeat President Obama for reelection. 50% think it very likely a Republican administration will move back into the White House come January of 2013.