Poll: Latest political trends show most states leaning Democratic yet conservative

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Unaffiliated voters are growing in numbers, the Democrats remain strong at local levels yet conservatives outnumber liberals in every U.S. state.

These finding come compliments of recent studies from Rasmussen Reports and Gallup tracking current partisan trends and the ideological landscape of America in early-2010.

A plurality of adults (35.4%) still refer to themselves as Democrats but that is now the lowest total recorded in more than seven years according to Rasmussen. Each month the organization updates its partisan trends recording ideological shifts amongst Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated adults. In January of 2009 Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 8.3% nationally and a year earlier their advantage was 5.6%. Now that total is down to 3.1% rebounding somewhat from a 1.5% lead in December that was the narrowest Democratic Party advantage since August of 2005.

Although they’ve made up some ground over the past year it’s not all roses for the Republican Party either. 32.3% of the country now view themselves as Republican and while that total is within an average range for the Party it is only equal to the current total of unaffiliated adults. Also standing at 32.3% unaffiliateds are at their highest level since May of 2007, the last time that they were equal to or exceeded the number of Republicans in the country. The growing displeasure for both major parties may also be reflected in the 65% of voters now holding mainstream or populist social and political views. Rasmussen describes mainstream Americans as leery of both big government and big business and more likely to trust the wisdom of their fellow citizens.

“The American people don’t want to be governed from the left, the right or the
center. The American people want to govern themselves.” – Scott Rasmussen / Rasmussen Reports

Turning our attention to two recent studies by Gallup we take a state by state look at current party identification and political ideologies. Gallup conducted their research through a massive sample size of nearly 354,000 adults nationwide including more than 20,000 interviews in Pennsylvania alone. What they uncovered were slight shifts from 2008 to 2009 favoring Republicans but not enough to offset the clear advantage Democrats hold at state and local levels. The survey measured the number of Americans solidly or leaning toward the Democratic Party at 49%, down from 52% in 2008. Republicans meanwhile gained slightly up to 41% in 2009 from 40% last year.

The District of Columbia who has voted for the Democratic candidate in every Presidential election in its history has nearly 78% affiliating as a Democrat – a margin of 66-percentage points over Republicans. At 54% and holding a 22-point margin Wyoming is the most Republican state in the country. Only five states (Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, Alaska, and Alabama) feature a considerable advantage of better than five-percentage points favoring the Republican Party. On the flip side a whopping 34-states, including the District of Columbia, have greater than a five-point advantage in Democratic affiliation.

In the Tri-State area Delaware ranks strongest for the Democratic Party with a 21% advantage over Republicans. New Jersey also scores high for the Democrats holding an eighteen-point lead over the GOP. Pennsylvania meanwhile gets lumped in closer to the middle of the pack but still offers a twelve-percentage point lead for Democrats over Republicans in the state.

The Democratic advantage in party identification is tempered somewhat by a large ideological lead for conservatives over liberals. As previously mentioned there are no states where liberals outnumber conservatives, although the District of Columbia has a 15% liberal to conservative gap, and in only three states (Vermont, Hawaii, and Massachusetts) are the ideological totals nearly identical.

Conservatives outnumbered liberals 40-21% in 2009 according to Gallup research with an additional 36% identifying as politically moderate. Alabama is both the most conservative state (49.4%) and features the widest disparity (34.6%) between major groupings on the political right and left. The fewest liberals (13.9%) for a state reside in Alabama’s neighbor Mississippi. At 28% Vermont contains the most liberals outside of D.C. and also features the smallest conservative to liberal margin of just 0.8%. Over half of the states in America (26) have conservatives outnumbering liberals by over twenty-percentage points.

Typically Democratic states also tend have more politically moderate adults. Rhode Island, Hawaii, West Virginia, Vermont, Connecticut and Delaware all are composed of moderates by more than 40%. The First State however ranks just 30th on the list of most liberal states (19%) behind Pennsylvania’s 23rd ranking (20%) and New Jersey who is number nine (24.7%).

Poll: Conservatives outnumber liberals both nationally and in Pennsylvania

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Self-identifying conservatives continue to outnumber liberals by a wide margin across the United States and in Pennsylvania. Their nationwide wide lead is nineteen percentage points (40-21%) and the conservative to liberal margin in the Keystone State is seventeen-points, ranking thirtieth in the country.

These were the findings of another in a series of state-by-state polls conducted by the Gallup organization tracking party identification trends across America. Gallup data reflects a relatively steady and consistent partisan split since the early-90s. Over that time the number of people considering themselves to be politically conservative has ranged from 39-43%, while those describing themselves as liberal has been between 18-23%. Echoing these figures, a recent Washington Post survey of over a thousand adults nationwide showed conservatives at 38%, liberals at 20% and moderates leading with 39% of the adult population.

The Gallup study meanwhile took a look at each state through a series of interviews that included over 4,500 in New Jersey and better than 9,800 in Pennsylvania. The Garden State at a modest six-percent was seventh lowest ranked on the list in terms of conservative partisan advantage. Pennsylvania meanwhile showed a seventeen-point lead for conservatives, and those on the political right lead by 22% in Delaware, ranking the First State sixteenth in the country.


Giving credence to the sentiment that the United States is a fairly evenly divided country, Gallup’s previous survey as reported here shows a solid fourteen-point for edge for Democrats over Republicans. In only five states (Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska, Alabama) do Republicans have a statistically significant advantage over Democrats. Conservatives meanwhile have a lead over liberals in forty-eight states with only the District of Columbia, Massachusetts and Vermont showing either a surplus of liberals or a virtual deadlock between the two sides.

Sometimes a noticeably wide gap will appear between the two. Alabama is the most statistically conservative state at 49% and is tied for second lowest in its rate of liberals (15%) making for a thirty-four point gap. That said Republicans have only a modest six-point edge over Democrats in the state of Alabama. The widest gap for a state between conservative and Republican affiliation is in Arkansas. The Democratic tradition is still strong in the Natural State but the socially conservative population of recent decades makes for an almost distorted looking gap of forty-two percentage points.

Pennsylvania is one of the more statistically balanced states in the country if looked at it in terms of Democratic affiliation being balanced out by generally opposing conservative ideology. The seventeen-point edge for conservatives in the Keystone State is nearly identical to the sixteen-percent lead Democrats hold over Republicans. This perhaps is a primary reason for the state’s highly competitive reputation in elections at various levels. Although Democratic candidates have won the last five Presidential elections, and Barack Obama did particularly well here in 2008, both the previous two elections were reasonably close. Democrats and Republicans have also split the last twenty-four election since 1916.