Poll: Conservatives outnumber liberals both nationally and in Pennsylvania

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Self-identifying conservatives continue to outnumber liberals by a wide margin across the United States and in Pennsylvania. Their nationwide wide lead is nineteen percentage points (40-21%) and the conservative to liberal margin in the Keystone State is seventeen-points, ranking thirtieth in the country.

These were the findings of another in a series of state-by-state polls conducted by the Gallup organization tracking party identification trends across America. Gallup data reflects a relatively steady and consistent partisan split since the early-90s. Over that time the number of people considering themselves to be politically conservative has ranged from 39-43%, while those describing themselves as liberal has been between 18-23%. Echoing these figures, a recent Washington Post survey of over a thousand adults nationwide showed conservatives at 38%, liberals at 20% and moderates leading with 39% of the adult population.

The Gallup study meanwhile took a look at each state through a series of interviews that included over 4,500 in New Jersey and better than 9,800 in Pennsylvania. The Garden State at a modest six-percent was seventh lowest ranked on the list in terms of conservative partisan advantage. Pennsylvania meanwhile showed a seventeen-point lead for conservatives, and those on the political right lead by 22% in Delaware, ranking the First State sixteenth in the country.


Giving credence to the sentiment that the United States is a fairly evenly divided country, Gallup’s previous survey as reported here shows a solid fourteen-point for edge for Democrats over Republicans. In only five states (Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska, Alabama) do Republicans have a statistically significant advantage over Democrats. Conservatives meanwhile have a lead over liberals in forty-eight states with only the District of Columbia, Massachusetts and Vermont showing either a surplus of liberals or a virtual deadlock between the two sides.

Sometimes a noticeably wide gap will appear between the two. Alabama is the most statistically conservative state at 49% and is tied for second lowest in its rate of liberals (15%) making for a thirty-four point gap. That said Republicans have only a modest six-point edge over Democrats in the state of Alabama. The widest gap for a state between conservative and Republican affiliation is in Arkansas. The Democratic tradition is still strong in the Natural State but the socially conservative population of recent decades makes for an almost distorted looking gap of forty-two percentage points.

Pennsylvania is one of the more statistically balanced states in the country if looked at it in terms of Democratic affiliation being balanced out by generally opposing conservative ideology. The seventeen-point edge for conservatives in the Keystone State is nearly identical to the sixteen-percent lead Democrats hold over Republicans. This perhaps is a primary reason for the state’s highly competitive reputation in elections at various levels. Although Democratic candidates have won the last five Presidential elections, and Barack Obama did particularly well here in 2008, both the previous two elections were reasonably close. Democrats and Republicans have also split the last twenty-four election since 1916.