Nate Silver of Fivethirtyeight.com recently wrote an interesting article on his popular website about health care and public option. Unlike most of the reports or opinion pieces that have been circulating throughout the media Silver take a looks at look at how exactly the polling itself is being conducted. Or more specifically how he feels it has been done poorly in recent weeks.
It’s no secret that Americans are sharply divided on the debate of health care and public option, the implementation of or lack thereof hurls yet another log into the fire pit of public debate. Most polling outlets have shown a steady decline in support for reform proposals. ABC/Washington Post who as recently as April showed President Obama’s approval rating on the issue at 57-29% approval to disapproval split now has his numbers at 46-50% respectively.
While it appears a majority of Americans are on board with the general principle that private insurers should have to compete with a government run plan and that government intervention is at least somewhat necessary, the figures are quite close to 50-50. As Rasmussen Reports indicates the number drops well below 50% when asking whether individuals would support a reform measure that did not include the so-called public option. Republicans and independents appear strongly against the idea of vast government control of the health care system and even Democratic support hovers at just 50%.
The numbers consistently point to an uphill struggle for Democrats and the President on the issue, and while that is quite possibly the reality of the situation Nate Silver for one asks for some better polling. Silver figures polling on such a specific issue would be quite easy but says that pollsters have really been fouling things up as he offers up “five essential ingredients” in conducting an effective poll on the topic public option.
1. Make clear that the 'public option' refers unambiguously to a type of health insurance, and not the actual provision of health care services by the government.
2. Make clear that by "public", you mean "government".
3. Avoid using the term 'Medicare' when referring to the public option.
4. Make clear that the public option is, in fact, an option, and that private insurance is also an option.
5. Ask in clear and unambiguous terms whether the respondent supports the public option -- not how important they think it is.
I’ll let Silver’s words speak for themselves as he goes into greater depth and clarity about the significance of each of his recommendations. You can read the rest of his material by following the link to his website here and scrolling down to the eighth article on the page.
1. Make clear that the 'public option' refers unambiguously to a type of health insurance, and not the actual provision of health care services by the government.
2. Make clear that by "public", you mean "government".
3. Avoid using the term 'Medicare' when referring to the public option.
4. Make clear that the public option is, in fact, an option, and that private insurance is also an option.
5. Ask in clear and unambiguous terms whether the respondent supports the public option -- not how important they think it is.
I’ll let Silver’s words speak for themselves as he goes into greater depth and clarity about the significance of each of his recommendations. You can read the rest of his material by following the link to his website here and scrolling down to the eighth article on the page.
In summary Silver considers a recent Quinnipiac University question to be the best example of good polling in brief on the topic of public option. “Do you support or oppose giving people the option of being covered by a government health insurance plan that would compete with private plans?” Polls from Time/SRBI, the aforementioned ABC/Washington Post and the Economist/YouGov also score high in the quality of their questioning and accuracy of results as described by Silver.
Again we see another example of how the phrasing of a poll question is arguably as important as the general understand the poll recipient has on the topic itself in generating an accurate barometer of public opinion.
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