Poll: Toomey takes surprise lead in Pennsylvania Senate race

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The fascinating story of three Senatorial candidates in the state of Pennsylvania continues to make waves nationally.

First, Republican Pat Toomey a former member of the House of Representatives who narrowly lost to one Arlen Specter in a 2004 primary challenge by less than two percentage points. Secondly, that same Arlen Specter is now a Democrat and running for his political life in the face of heavy scrutiny. Thirdly there is upstart Democratic Congressmen Joe Sestak who unseated ten-term incumbent Curt Weldon in 2006 and now has his sights set on even bigger things.

Rasmussen Reports which showed a Specter lead of eleven-point over Toomey just two months ago suddenly has the Republican challenger up by twelve in their latest poll of the Keystone State. Toomey’s 48-36% lead (12% remain undecided) signifies a rather stunning turn of events. Pennsylvania’s social and politically moderate status often makes for a good bellwether indicator of what lies ahead in upcoming midterm or Presidential election races. If this remains true in 2009 it looks as though sunny skies may just be on the horizon for a GOP desperate for a political turnaround.

Arlen Specter’s problems don’t even begin with Toomey but they might end there. According to the Rasmussen survey Specter’s now has a 43-54% approval to disapproval rating amongst Pennsylvanians and his recent and highly publicized town hall meeting on the topic of health care reform was more of a battle of attrition than exchange of ideas.

If that’s not enough, Specter is getting whacked from both ends of the political spectrum. Primary challenger Joe Sestak has at least an outside shot at the Democratic nomination although he currently trails Specter by thirteen-points in the upcoming primary. But even if Specter does survive it will likely be his second straight primary battle and may weaken his chances of keeping his Senate seat in the fall. Sestak the upstart is actually in better position to take Toomey head on according to the Rasmussen poll. His deficit is a modest eight-points (43-35%) with a large segment of Pennsylvania voters (18%) still undecided on either candidate.

The struggles for Democrats in Pennsylvania and nationwide are often reflected by their support of President Obama’s increasingly unpopular health care reform proposals. According to a recent Gallup survey just 43% approve of the President’s handling of the issue and an almost identical number (42%) of Pennsylvanians support the President’s plan for health care overhaul according to Rasmussen.

Not everyone foresees a doom and gloom scenario for Specter and the Democrats however, even if it seems clear they now face an uphill battle. Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post pointed towards a possible turning point for Senator Specter coming out of these recent town hall meetings. Suggesting that it’s imperative that he redefines himself now as a Democrat and effectively gets his message across starring in the face of tough opposition, Specter actually has an opportunity. Philadelphia-based Democratic media consultant Saul Shorr agrees with that sentiment.

The town hall confrontation worked to Specter's advantage, affording him the
opportunity to defend the President's plan in a high-profile public setting…The
town halls are the best thing that has happened to him. It makes him a Democrat.
– Chris Cillizza (Washington Post), Saul Shorr (Democratic media consultant)

The 2010 Senate race is one chalked full of interesting sets of circumstances. Pennsylvanians rejected the policies of President Bush in 2006 and voted heavily for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008. But the political climate is subject to rapid changes in temperature when placed on the hot stove of social turmoil and an economic recession. If the statistically improbable turn in these latest Senate polls serve as any kind of proof to that end, then be sure to stay tuned as the political drama in Pennsylvania continues to unfold.