Poll: Despite pledge, most Americans expect Obama to raise taxes

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Americans remain skeptical of President Obama’s pledge not to raise taxes on all but the wealthiest of earners. This is according to a recently released Gallup poll of 1,010 adults nationwide.

The issue of taxes has long been regarded as something of a political third rail for elected officials. In his one term in office George H.W. Bush found out the hard way what breaking campaign promises regarding taxes can do to the life of a Presidency. Bush’s rather infamous “read my lips, no new taxes” statement broke a campaign pledge and with an economy in recession later in his term it also damaged his changes of reelection.

Most Americans are used to the idea of tax and spend Democratic Presidents historically. But current President Obama faces perhaps a stiff challenge in honoring his no tax raise pledge while effectively pushing through expensive legislation. The Gallup poll speaks to this perception. 68% of Americans believe their income taxes will be higher by the end of Obama’s first term in office. These numbers include 35% of adults who think their taxes will be “a lot” higher by 2012, 33% who assume they will be at least “a little” higher, and 20% who think they will stay roughly the same. Only 9% of poll responders think their taxes which actually go down under the Obama Presidency despite the vast majority of Americans being under the $250,000 threshold that he pledges to protect.

During the campaign a similar question from Gallup resulted in 49% of American adults expecting their taxes to be raised in the event of an Obama Presidency. This was before the passing of a massive $787 billion economic stimulus package and an approximately $1 trillion health care reform bill now on the books. 48% of Democrats think their taxes will go up under Obama with around 70% of independents agreeing and nine in ten Republicans sharing in that opinion. More startling for the Obama Administration may be the 59% of low income earners of under-$30,000 a year who still think their income taxes will increase by 2012.

It seems that the vast majority of Americans have resigned themselves to the realities of a likely tax hike under Obama. While that isn’t exactly a pleasant realization, the President can perhaps take solace in the fact that 1) not everyone is against a tax hike, and 2) if by some chance he exceeds expectations by paying for programs without the increase it could be spun as a major political victory.

CNN/Opinion Research Corp. in a poll from earlier this month found somewhat different perceptions of President Obama’s economic policy depending on what questions were asked. For instance only 44% of Americans thought the President’s policies had made the economy better against 51% who “didn’t think so”. Fuzzy terms like “I don’t think so” surely leave open the door for plenty of interpretation and probably inflate the overall number of negative responses.

CNN then follows up by asking those who “don’t think so” whether they believe the President’s policies will help the economy in the long run. To that question 11%, or better than one in five “don’t think so” responders also think he will improve things ultimately. Adding that total back to the 44% who believe Obama has in fact made things better already we now get a 55-40% positive to negative split. One side will report the negative 44-51% figures for Obama whereas the other will take off and run with the 55-40% totals in just another example of how the interpretation of polls can be important in the shaping of public opinion.