The Keystone State which supported President Obama by better than ten percentage points in 2008 and has gone “blue” in the last five elections ranks as the 20th most Democratic state in America.
This is according to the results of a massive Gallup study conducted over the first six months of 2009 interviewing over 160,000 U.S. adults. Neighboring states New Jersey and Delaware rank ninth and twenty-ninth respectively.
Widely viewed as a competitive swing-state, but one that went heavily for Obama and the Democrats in 2008, Pennsylvania’s number twenty placement shouldn’t come as a surprise. Only in California did Gallup interview more than the 9,809 adults from Pennsylvania, the results showing a net advantage of sixteen percentage points for the Dems in Pa. These totals mirror closely State Department statistics that show the Democrats with a 51-37% edge over Republicans in the Keystone State.
Gallup weighs their large samples using predetermined social and demographic data obtained through prior surveys. The support shown for either major party is a combination of those directly affiliating with one or the other, or independents that lean towards the Democratic or Republican parties. Interestingly Gallup also found Pennsylvania to have the lowest number (25%) of self identifying independents in the country. Rhode Island was the highest at 50%.
Nationwide Democrats hold strong in their advantage over the GOP. Only five states lean moderately or heavily Republican; Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska and Alabama. Thirty-eight states including Washington D.C. meanwhile lean towards the Democrats – some by wide margins. Thirteen of those states show Democratic advantages of better than twenty percent, with the District of Columbia, Massachusetts, Hawaii, Maryland, Vermont, Rhode Island, Illinois, New York and Connecticut all at a margin of 25% or greater.
Not every state that leans towards the Democrats votes that way however, at least speaking in terms of Presidential elections. West Virginia showed a 53-33% advantage for the Dems but the state has voted convincingly for Republican President’s in the last three elections. The state that best reflects Pennsylvania in its identification breakdown is Kentucky also showing a 16% advantage for Democrats. President Obama lost that state however by better than sixteen-points in 2008 and Kentucky has sided with Republican candidates overall in ten of the last fourteen Presidential elections.
In addition to the Gallup survey the National Journal ranked the most liberal and conservative states based on their House delegation composite scores. The methodology isn’t exactly clear, but the Journal did show figures that mirror the Gallup poll. Pennsylvania was lumped in as one of twenty-four “centrist” states with a liberal leaning composite score of 52.7 – nearly identical to the percentage (53%) identifying as Democrats in the Gallup study.
Gallup’s bottom line indicates that the margin of support of Democrats over Republicans continues to hold steady over the first half of 2009 from the second half of 2008. Although the Democratic advantage nationally has shrunken in recent months most of the switching has been toward self identifying independents rather than an increase of Republicans.
This is according to the results of a massive Gallup study conducted over the first six months of 2009 interviewing over 160,000 U.S. adults. Neighboring states New Jersey and Delaware rank ninth and twenty-ninth respectively.
Widely viewed as a competitive swing-state, but one that went heavily for Obama and the Democrats in 2008, Pennsylvania’s number twenty placement shouldn’t come as a surprise. Only in California did Gallup interview more than the 9,809 adults from Pennsylvania, the results showing a net advantage of sixteen percentage points for the Dems in Pa. These totals mirror closely State Department statistics that show the Democrats with a 51-37% edge over Republicans in the Keystone State.
Gallup weighs their large samples using predetermined social and demographic data obtained through prior surveys. The support shown for either major party is a combination of those directly affiliating with one or the other, or independents that lean towards the Democratic or Republican parties. Interestingly Gallup also found Pennsylvania to have the lowest number (25%) of self identifying independents in the country. Rhode Island was the highest at 50%.
Nationwide Democrats hold strong in their advantage over the GOP. Only five states lean moderately or heavily Republican; Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska and Alabama. Thirty-eight states including Washington D.C. meanwhile lean towards the Democrats – some by wide margins. Thirteen of those states show Democratic advantages of better than twenty percent, with the District of Columbia, Massachusetts, Hawaii, Maryland, Vermont, Rhode Island, Illinois, New York and Connecticut all at a margin of 25% or greater.
Not every state that leans towards the Democrats votes that way however, at least speaking in terms of Presidential elections. West Virginia showed a 53-33% advantage for the Dems but the state has voted convincingly for Republican President’s in the last three elections. The state that best reflects Pennsylvania in its identification breakdown is Kentucky also showing a 16% advantage for Democrats. President Obama lost that state however by better than sixteen-points in 2008 and Kentucky has sided with Republican candidates overall in ten of the last fourteen Presidential elections.
In addition to the Gallup survey the National Journal ranked the most liberal and conservative states based on their House delegation composite scores. The methodology isn’t exactly clear, but the Journal did show figures that mirror the Gallup poll. Pennsylvania was lumped in as one of twenty-four “centrist” states with a liberal leaning composite score of 52.7 – nearly identical to the percentage (53%) identifying as Democrats in the Gallup study.
Gallup’s bottom line indicates that the margin of support of Democrats over Republicans continues to hold steady over the first half of 2009 from the second half of 2008. Although the Democratic advantage nationally has shrunken in recent months most of the switching has been toward self identifying independents rather than an increase of Republicans.
While the Republican Party is still able to compete in elections if they enjoy
greater turnout from their supporters or greater support for its candidates from
independent voters, the deck is clearly stacked in the Democratic Party's favor
for now. – Jeffrey M. Jones (Gallup)
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