Analysis: Republicans will make midterm gains, but taking back Congress is doubtful for 2010

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After making impressive gains since 2006 that included a sweeping mandate in the Oval Office Democrats appear stuck in a rut. Republicans are energized meanwhile and have crafted a message of fiscal responsibility while taking advantage of the low approval of the Democratically controlled Congress and shrinking popularity of President Obama. It all sounds familiar.

Cries of 1994, the year the GOP gained 52-seats to take back control of the House of the Representatives, can be heard. Health care was a big issue then just as it is now. The Democrats had a President occupying the White House but struggling with a shaky approval rating in his second year, just as they do now. Many political observers have talked about the possibility of a Republican renaissance in 2010 even while polls show them still licking their wounds from a difficult recent stretch.

One of these observers, Isaac Wood, is a contributor to Larry J. Sabato’s much hailed “Crystal Ball” website. Sabato is the director for the Center of Politics and a professor at the University of Virginia. The “Crystal Ball” was perhaps the most accurate predictor from a pool of dozens of analysts on Election Night 2006. That year Sabato and company accurately forecasted the Democrats 29-seat pickup in the House as well as their takeover of the Senate.

The Republican Party would need a net gain of 40-seats to take back the House this year and, after Scott Brown’s stunning special election victory in Massachusetts last month, a total of ten victories for Senate control. While Republican heavyweights such as Karl Rove are pointing towards factors that could pave the way for an autumn political season resembling that of 1994, Wood sees a rather modest comeback for the GOP underway.

1994 was the only time in the last 35-years that either political party picked up over 40-seats in an election. Isaac Wood does not predict the Republican wave in 2010 as strong enough to put the party back in power either. The “Crystal Ball” projects a Republican pickup of 24-30 House seats, averaging out to 27 as of February. In the Senate they see seven additional seats as likely to be filled by the GOP starting next year, three short of what is needed to recapture that body.

“Crystal Ball” labels 102-districts as being competitive in 2010. The Democrats may have hit a ceiling after impressive gains in the past two Congressional elections but there is still hope for the party that they can minimize loses this November. Barring the unforeseen the economy will of course take center stage. While job loses should continue to hinder the Democrats throughout the year, if other aspects continue to rebound and if President Obama can keep his approval ratings at or above the 50% threshold losses could be slight for the party in power.

Since World War II the average pick-up in a midterm year is 22-house seats. Currently the “Crystal Ball” shows thirteen of those seats very likely or guaranteed to fall to the Republican Party and another eighteen toss-ups or leaners could be heading in that direction over the next few months. Unlike the Democrats in 2006 however the GOP is vulnerable in a few races where they currently hold seats. The Democrats are favored to win in Delaware and Louisiana and have a good shot at picking up control of a district in Illinois as well.

As is usually the case come midterms when one party substantially outnumbers the other in Congress they also have more territory to defend. This makes the chore of keeping wide margins in tact all the more difficult. By sheer numbers as well as the political tide that favors Republicans this season fending off advances will be a difficult task for the Democrats. Beyond the competitive races there are 28-districts that the “Crystal Ball” rates as likely holds for the Dems and another nineteen leaning their direction. The GOP meanwhile has seven races leaning their direction and another fourteen likely to be retained. This gap of twenty-six seats in addition to other favorable dynamics in competitive races for Republicans helps depict their potential upside heading towards November.

Wood, Sabato and their team at “Crystal Ball” have labeled 102 of the 435-races for 2010 as being competitive. Below is the breakdown between parties;

Competitive Seats: 102-total
Democratic: 78 (28-likely, 19-leans, 18-toss, 13-leans GOP)
Republican: 24 (14-likely, 7-leans, 1-toss, 2-leans DEM)

The ceiling for the Republican Party then would be 78. That would mean Republican victories in the total number of competitive races in seats the Democrats hold without any loses suffered in the 24 the GOP currently occupies. Since only a miracle or monumental disaster for the Democrats could make that number obtainable the next relevant number is 50. This would again include the Republicans defending all 24-competitive seats they currently hold while picking up victories in every race where A) a Democrat is favored to lose, B) in a toss-up battle, or C) those that currently lean in the direction of the GOP. Again this seems like wishful thinking especially when considering Republican vulnerabilities in at least two House races and the practical impossibility of winning every race come November that they trail modestly in as of February.

The magic number of course is 40 and piecing together a scenario where Republicans can simply take back the House with a narrow majority is far more manageable.

If for instance the GOP retained all 24 of its vulnerable seats, picked up the thirteen Democratic possessions that polls show leaning Republican and the eighteen toss-up races their total would balloon to 31. To get the extra nine victories needed for a majority the GOP would then need to win slightly less than half of the nineteen races where Democrats are favored to win. They could also win a majority of those Democratic leaners or pull off a few upsets in races where they are heavy underdogs, ala Scott Brown, to help offset the strong possibility of losing control of a couple of their own seats.

While many could look at the “Crystal Ball” prediction of only 27-victories for the Republican Party as low-balling some basic statistical analysis could show a strong possibility of even less than that total. Looking back at those 102-competitive races perhaps we can attribute odds to the likelihood that each one will be retained by one party or taken away by the other. In all instances where either a Democrat and Republican candidate is “likely” to win lets assume their chances of actual victory are 90%. In races where one or the other “leans” as the favorite we’ll place their odds at 70%. “Toss-up” races then would be a 50-50 proposition.

Using these figures the Democrats would suffer several defeats but still retain an average of 51.4 of their 78 “vulnerable” seats this November, nearly 66%. The Republicans then would pickup the other 26.6 seats lost by Democratic candidates, similar to the 27 projected by the “Crystal Ball”. However we need to apply this same math to the 24-seats currently under the control of the GOP. That means Republicans on average are likely to retain 18.6 while losing 5.4 of their currently held seats, or 78% retained.

Subtracting their net losses in currently held seats from their net gains in those under Democrat control we can calculate the Republican Party will, on average, net 21.2 seats this November. That’s similar to the historical midterm average of 22 and while it shows progress for a party that has struggled in recent years it still keeps the GOP well shy of their goal to retake control of the House of the Representatives.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / STEVEN SENNE