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Gearing up for Super Bowl XLIV this Sunday, ESPN’s “Sports Nation” program decided to poll the country on a number of topics regarding the big game.
While these polls are unscientific by nature the impressive sample sizes and state by state breakdowns make for both insightful and entertaining viewing. Below are four of the more interesting questions and the responses from the many thousands of ESPN website voters.
Which team will win Super Bowl XLIV?
Indianapolis Colts: 58%
New Orleans Saints: 42%
Notes: As of 10:30 Friday morning over 318,000 folks nationwide voted on this the biggest of questions from Super Bowl XLIV. The Colts were the clear majority winner and that percentage dropped by just a single-point since news of the lingering Dwight Freeney injury saturated the airwaves several days ago. The Saints are favored to win by a majority of the voting public in just six states; their Louisiana home, neighboring Mississippi and in the New England states of Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts and Rhode Island perhaps stirred by Patriots fans who view the Colts as a bitter rival.
Not surprisingly Louisiana is most confident in their Saints (94%) and Indiana in their Colts (88%). In Mississippi 70% of voters also believe the Saints will be victorious on Sunday. Up in Viking-country Minnesota (75%) and North Dakota (70%) seem quite certain about Indianapolis, also perhaps spearheaded from the Vikes disappointing overtime loss to New Orleans in this year’s NFC Championship Game. Over 21,000 voters from outside the U.S. chimed in and took the Colts by a similar percentage (59%) to the American public. Pennsylvania (60%), New Jersey (65%) and Delaware (61%) all have above average confidence in the Colts chances to hoist their second Lombardi Trophy in four seasons.
Saints at Colts (-5.5): Which team wins?
Indianapolis Colts: 55%
New Orleans Saints: 45%
Notes: Football is big among the betters and gamblers as well and this Super Bowl will be no exception. When the game spread shows the Colts as favored by 5.5-points over the Saints 55% of the public still believes in Indy's chances to both win and cover. This is similar to the 58% of the ESPN voting public who think the Colts will win the game “straight up”. However several publications in recent days have dropped the line slightly to -4.5 or -5-points in favor of Indianapolis. Taking this poll again with the more recent game spread in tact may actually reflect a virtually identical total between the two.
Of the 26,575 people who voted across America on the 5.5-line the Colts were favored to “cover” in all but thirteen states. The Saints meanwhile were picked in all of New England, Delaware, Maryland, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Alaska, Mississippi and Louisiana. Two states, Pennsylvania and Wyoming, showed a 50-50% split. Once again confidence soared in each of the team’s home states with 93% in Louisiana confident in the Saints chances to cover the spread and 84% in Indiana thinking the Colts will.
Which team are you rooting for to win the Super Bowl?
New Orleans Saints: 57%
Indianapolis Colts: 43%
Notes: In a near perfect reversal from the question of who voters think will win Super Bowl XLIV a clear majority of the public is rooting for the New Orleans Saints to win. Previous scientific polls from Harris actually show the Colts as consistently one of the most popular teams in the NFL and well ahead of the Saints fan base in terms of size. However in the instance of this match up, the sympathy vote for New Orleans just a few years removed from the Hurricane Katrina disaster and keeping in mind the Colts Super Bowl victory of just three years ago, more are pulling for the Saints. The total from outside the United States hoping for a Saints victory (57%) is identical to the American audience that sizes nearly 200,000 on this particular topic question.
The Colts are the preferred team in ten states; Indiana, neighboring Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Minnesota, Iowa, the Dakotas, Oklahoma and Utah. 96% in Louisiana are rooting for their Saints whereas 81% in Indiana pull for the Colts. In addition to their home state and bordering Mississippi the Saints are particularly popular throughout New England and Wisconsin. The Colts meanwhile do best in the northern Midwestern states where the Vikings are most popular, Tennessee where Peyton Manning went to college and Georgia perhaps because of the spirited rivalry New Orleans has with the home team Atlanta Falcons. Pennsylvania (60%), Delaware (60%) and New Jersey (55%) all are pulling for the Saints.
Will you watch this year’s halftime performance by the Who? Which of the past five halftime performers was your favorite?
Will watch: 45%
Won’t watch: 55%
The Rolling Stones: 25%
Tom Petty: 22%
Bruce Springsteen: 21%
Prince: 21%
Paul McCartney: 21%
Notes: Lastly we take a look at the impact of the musical Super Bowl halftime show and which recent performers were the favorite. The legendary British rock band the Who will be the halftime the act on Sunday but a majority of viewers might not be tuning in. 55% nationwide according to ESPN polling of nearly 43,000 suggest they’ll either turn the channel, using the time to mingle with party guests or take part in some other activity during halftime. The Who and their performance is most popular throughout the Mid Atlantic and New England states averaging close to a 50-50% split and least desirable in southwestern states like Texas, Utah and Arizona where 63% say they will not be watching.
As far as the halftime performers from recent years are concerned there is an extremely close divide in public opinion of who was the either the best or their personal favorite. The Rolling Stones Super Bowl performance from 2006 ranks number one with 25% of voters declaring it their favorite. The Stones also were considered the best by a plurality in twenty-states and tied in two others. They were most popular in Vermont, Maine, Arizona and Nevada polling at over 30% in each and least popular in Minnesota and Wyoming scoring under 20%. The British rock band’s popularity in the Tri-State area was also a tad sub par with just 23% in Pennsylvania, 22% in Delaware and 20% in New Jersey considering them to be the best act.
Tom Petty (22%), Bruce Springsteen (21%) and Prince (21%) all are similarly divided in terms of popularity. Petty is most popular in thirteen states and tied in one more, Bruce is the “Boss” in eleven states and Prince takes home top honors in an additional six. Petty is best in northwestern states like Montana, Wyoming and North Dakota, whereas Springsteen’s support not surprisingly is regionally strong in the northeast. Bruce does particularly well in his home state of New Jersey (39%), D.C. (32%), Pennsylvania (30%), Delaware (30%) and New York (29%). The "Purple One" meanwhile has a mix of support from around the country that includes strong showings in Hawaii (33%), Alaska (31%), his home state of Minnesota (30%) and southern states Georgia (29%) and Mississippi (29%).
Lagging behind is Paul McCartney who performed twice in this decade, most recently during the Eagles 24-21 loss to the New England Patriots in 2005. The former-Beatle was not the favorite performer in a single state although he does best in Utah (19%), Oklahoma (17%) and South Carolina (16%). McCartney struggles meanwhile in North Dakota (4%), Arkansas (6%) and generates only 8% support in Hawaii, Montana, Wyoming and New Mexico.
My Super Bowl Prediction (for the record): Colts 31, Saints 17
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