READ FULL STORY HEREBuried in the middle of lengthy new poll from ABC News / Washington Post are the latest findings on how the American public feels about one Sarah Palin. Fresh off her highly publicized and somewhat maligned keynote address at the Tea Party convention last week Sarah has herself another dose of bad news.
Just 37% of American adults have a favorable impression of Palin. 55% view her unfavorably. That is the lowest level of support and highest level of opposition yet recorded. Perhaps most damaging of all is a twelve-point drop in the number of Americans who believe the former Vice Presidential candidate is “qualified to serve as President.” Just over a quarter (26%) now thinks a Palin Administration can execute the duties of the White House competently. Better than seven in ten (71%) disagree.
That the new ABC / Post release is a random survey of just over a thousand U.S. adults and not a more targeted sample of registered or likely votes, who more often vote Republican, should offer little consolation to Palin and her supporters. Regardless of who is polling in the fifteen months since the election of 2008 the former Alaskan Governor has not approached the levels of enthusiasm she obtained in the months leading up to her and John McCain’s defeat that November.
Name recognition continues to be the political battering ram for Palin. Next to President Obama she is quite possibly the most identifiable current figure in American politics. In spite of her sluggish appeal from adults across the board and from all political affiliations her support within the GOP has deteriorated little. Gallup ranked her second behind Mitt Romney as the candidate Republicans would most like to see as their party’s nominee for 2012. Earlier today the same question was asked and again Sarah came in second place with the support of 11% of the GOP. Romney leads with 14%, John McCain is third drawing support from 7%, Mike Huckabee has faded to just 3% meanwhile and a large block of Republicans (42%) prefer a different candidate than the eleven listed from that poll.
Down but far from out Palin continues to hold on to a solid majority of support from her own party and 37% of Republicans still hold a “strongly favorably” view her. However only 45% of conservatives according to the ABC / Post survey consider Palin qualified for the Presidency. That’s a sharp drop from the nearly two-thirds (66%) who believed she was just a few months ago.
The Republican focus is perhaps sharply divided as well. Seeking to defeat President Obama, who is largely unpopular with GOP voters even by the normal standards of a critical opposition party, many within Republican ranks believe they’ll need to put their best foot forward in 2012. This could mean supporting a candidate that is more likely to win in the general election but who doesn’t necessarily appeal to all corners of the base rather than risking losing with a candidate who is a party favorite but can’t generate independent or moderate Democratic support. Of course it could also be argued that this sort of populist strategy backfired in the most recent election of 2008 when moderate John McCain lost handedly to Barack Obama.
Speaking again of Sarah’s chances Nate Silver from Fivethirtyeight.com recently assessed the possibilities for Palin to make it through the Republican primary in 2012.
Silver weighs several variables that will likely affect the outcome of the primary season two-years from now and places them in groupings. Fundraising for example could be a particularly effective tool for Sarah Palin in relation to her Republican counterparts. Her overall reach may be more limited than a Romney or Huckabee but her followers are more devoted, particularly in the western United States and in her home state of Alaska.
State by state variables from 2008 exit polls help reveal the nature of the electorate and what types of voters supported the McCain/Palin ticket that year, not just how many of them did. Palin seems to do best among those voters without college degrees and in states where there are a higher number of self described conservatives. The specific batch of conservatives that Palin runs strongest with are white Evangelical voters. Mike Huckabee however is also widely popular within that group and could outflank Palin in states with large Evangelical populations. Lastly Silver defines Palin’s best topic in attracting votes as through energy and terrorism policy. Sarah as explained by Silver requires less policy nuance in gaining traction with two of the more general topics that should be core issues in her still undetermined Presidential campaign.
Sarah’s strength is typically in western states and the Deep South. Fitting the bill Silver rates her twelve best states in order as being; Alaska, Wyoming, Mississippi, North Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Alabama, Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Oregon and Idaho. Conversely her weakest regions are the southwest and northeast and in states such as; Massachusetts, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, New York, Illinois, Utah, Delaware, Michigan, California and Pennsylvania.
The key early states in the primary, often responsible engineering critical momentum for a campaign, are Iowa, South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire. On average the four states rank around the middle of the pack for Sarah Palin in regards to her electoral strengths and weaknesses. Iowa and South Carolina in particular give her a good opportunity for victory whereas New Hampshire and Nevada are somewhat less likely.
Of course who else is running and in what specific order states will be voting could play a key role in determining what is expected to be a hotly contested Republican primary for 2012. Palin could do fairly well in what Silver describes are “second wave” voting states that play to her strengths in regions like the northwest and Deep South. Surviving through the early rounds should also build momentum that could carry her through certain states where she is less popular. However the exact order of those states is yet to be determined. Palin also could lose to Huckabee early on in Iowa, a state the former Arkansas Governor won in 2008, instantly undercutting her upward trajectory. She could also get hammered on the issues from political pros like Mitt Romney or simply lose to Huckabee or a wild-card candidate like Pennsylvania’s Rick Santorum with values voters in a war of attrition.
Ultimately Silver sees three different winnable scenarios for Sarah Palin in 2012.
1) She wins Iowa, South Carolina and a handful of “second wave” states primarily in the northwest. By doing so her momentum, barring any possible missteps, ought to be sufficient to defeat whoever is left standing in a narrowing field of Republican candidates.
2) This is the most complicated of scenarios. Palin needs to finish a strong second in Iowa presumably to Huckabee or a popular midwestern candidate. She then needs to pull out a win in South Carolina and power her way through to several victories in the aforementioned “second wave” states. She then wins some other large and important Republican stronghold in the south and rust belt region such as Texas, Florida or Georgia, Indiana or North Carolina, Ohio or Wisconsin.
3) Sarah takes Iowa as outlined in the first scenario and runs a strong second in South Carolina losing to someone other than Romney or another out of region candidate. Once again her best chance in “second wave” states that would come next would be to win big and regain momentum. Then the luck of the draw comes into play. Palin could be helped if the region that consists or the lower-Midwest, Deep South, Pacific Northwest, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Maryland votes next and she secures important victories in a handful of those states, most notably Texas. If the group that includes to rust belt, New York, Georgia and Florida votes next she’ll need to bet all of her chips on battleground states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio. If neither if those regions are the next to vote Sarah could be in serious trouble.
PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Ed Reinke
Just 37% of American adults have a favorable impression of Palin. 55% view her unfavorably. That is the lowest level of support and highest level of opposition yet recorded. Perhaps most damaging of all is a twelve-point drop in the number of Americans who believe the former Vice Presidential candidate is “qualified to serve as President.” Just over a quarter (26%) now thinks a Palin Administration can execute the duties of the White House competently. Better than seven in ten (71%) disagree.
That the new ABC / Post release is a random survey of just over a thousand U.S. adults and not a more targeted sample of registered or likely votes, who more often vote Republican, should offer little consolation to Palin and her supporters. Regardless of who is polling in the fifteen months since the election of 2008 the former Alaskan Governor has not approached the levels of enthusiasm she obtained in the months leading up to her and John McCain’s defeat that November.
Name recognition continues to be the political battering ram for Palin. Next to President Obama she is quite possibly the most identifiable current figure in American politics. In spite of her sluggish appeal from adults across the board and from all political affiliations her support within the GOP has deteriorated little. Gallup ranked her second behind Mitt Romney as the candidate Republicans would most like to see as their party’s nominee for 2012. Earlier today the same question was asked and again Sarah came in second place with the support of 11% of the GOP. Romney leads with 14%, John McCain is third drawing support from 7%, Mike Huckabee has faded to just 3% meanwhile and a large block of Republicans (42%) prefer a different candidate than the eleven listed from that poll.
Down but far from out Palin continues to hold on to a solid majority of support from her own party and 37% of Republicans still hold a “strongly favorably” view her. However only 45% of conservatives according to the ABC / Post survey consider Palin qualified for the Presidency. That’s a sharp drop from the nearly two-thirds (66%) who believed she was just a few months ago.
The Republican focus is perhaps sharply divided as well. Seeking to defeat President Obama, who is largely unpopular with GOP voters even by the normal standards of a critical opposition party, many within Republican ranks believe they’ll need to put their best foot forward in 2012. This could mean supporting a candidate that is more likely to win in the general election but who doesn’t necessarily appeal to all corners of the base rather than risking losing with a candidate who is a party favorite but can’t generate independent or moderate Democratic support. Of course it could also be argued that this sort of populist strategy backfired in the most recent election of 2008 when moderate John McCain lost handedly to Barack Obama.
Speaking again of Sarah’s chances Nate Silver from Fivethirtyeight.com recently assessed the possibilities for Palin to make it through the Republican primary in 2012.
Silver weighs several variables that will likely affect the outcome of the primary season two-years from now and places them in groupings. Fundraising for example could be a particularly effective tool for Sarah Palin in relation to her Republican counterparts. Her overall reach may be more limited than a Romney or Huckabee but her followers are more devoted, particularly in the western United States and in her home state of Alaska.
State by state variables from 2008 exit polls help reveal the nature of the electorate and what types of voters supported the McCain/Palin ticket that year, not just how many of them did. Palin seems to do best among those voters without college degrees and in states where there are a higher number of self described conservatives. The specific batch of conservatives that Palin runs strongest with are white Evangelical voters. Mike Huckabee however is also widely popular within that group and could outflank Palin in states with large Evangelical populations. Lastly Silver defines Palin’s best topic in attracting votes as through energy and terrorism policy. Sarah as explained by Silver requires less policy nuance in gaining traction with two of the more general topics that should be core issues in her still undetermined Presidential campaign.
Sarah’s strength is typically in western states and the Deep South. Fitting the bill Silver rates her twelve best states in order as being; Alaska, Wyoming, Mississippi, North Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Alabama, Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Oregon and Idaho. Conversely her weakest regions are the southwest and northeast and in states such as; Massachusetts, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, New York, Illinois, Utah, Delaware, Michigan, California and Pennsylvania.
The key early states in the primary, often responsible engineering critical momentum for a campaign, are Iowa, South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire. On average the four states rank around the middle of the pack for Sarah Palin in regards to her electoral strengths and weaknesses. Iowa and South Carolina in particular give her a good opportunity for victory whereas New Hampshire and Nevada are somewhat less likely.
Of course who else is running and in what specific order states will be voting could play a key role in determining what is expected to be a hotly contested Republican primary for 2012. Palin could do fairly well in what Silver describes are “second wave” voting states that play to her strengths in regions like the northwest and Deep South. Surviving through the early rounds should also build momentum that could carry her through certain states where she is less popular. However the exact order of those states is yet to be determined. Palin also could lose to Huckabee early on in Iowa, a state the former Arkansas Governor won in 2008, instantly undercutting her upward trajectory. She could also get hammered on the issues from political pros like Mitt Romney or simply lose to Huckabee or a wild-card candidate like Pennsylvania’s Rick Santorum with values voters in a war of attrition.
Ultimately Silver sees three different winnable scenarios for Sarah Palin in 2012.
1) She wins Iowa, South Carolina and a handful of “second wave” states primarily in the northwest. By doing so her momentum, barring any possible missteps, ought to be sufficient to defeat whoever is left standing in a narrowing field of Republican candidates.
2) This is the most complicated of scenarios. Palin needs to finish a strong second in Iowa presumably to Huckabee or a popular midwestern candidate. She then needs to pull out a win in South Carolina and power her way through to several victories in the aforementioned “second wave” states. She then wins some other large and important Republican stronghold in the south and rust belt region such as Texas, Florida or Georgia, Indiana or North Carolina, Ohio or Wisconsin.
3) Sarah takes Iowa as outlined in the first scenario and runs a strong second in South Carolina losing to someone other than Romney or another out of region candidate. Once again her best chance in “second wave” states that would come next would be to win big and regain momentum. Then the luck of the draw comes into play. Palin could be helped if the region that consists or the lower-Midwest, Deep South, Pacific Northwest, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Maryland votes next and she secures important victories in a handful of those states, most notably Texas. If the group that includes to rust belt, New York, Georgia and Florida votes next she’ll need to bet all of her chips on battleground states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio. If neither if those regions are the next to vote Sarah could be in serious trouble.
PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Ed Reinke
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