Poll: Early numbers suggest Obama could be in tight race for reelection in 2012

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President Obama’s popularity with the electorate continues to teeter between slightly positive or marginally negative approval ratings. Cumulatively his landmark health care reform bill has attracted a more positive public response since it was passed a week and a half ago, yet it is still viewed negatively by pluralities – sometimes majorities – of Americans.

Turning our attention away from the ongoing health care debate for a moment however some interesting March polling sizes up the President’s chances of reelection. While any polling on a topic that doesn’t come about for another year and half has to be labeled as preliminary, at best, a few surveys have tackled the subject head on.

Obama’s challenging first fourteen months in office is reflected in a recent CNN / Opinion Research poll. 935-registered voters nationwide were asked who they would vote for if the upcoming 2012 election were being held today. President Obama attracted 47% of the vote with a generic Republican candidate in the slight lead at 48%. Four-percent of Americans claimed to be supporting a candidate from neither major party and in something of surprise almost no one (1%) placed themselves in the undecided column.

A larger poll of 1,907 registered voters conducted by Quinnipiac just prior to the passage of health care legislation found a similar result. 40% favored Obama and 41% a Republican challenger. Allowing for greater nuance the Quinnipiac poll found that 9% of voters would base their decision on the specific Republican candidate and another 9% remain uncertain. One decidedly negative area for the President was the survey response as to whether Obama deserves to be reelected. Just 40% say he deserves to remain in office past 2012 against 48% who disagree. Another 11% are unsure.

Of course should Obama receive the expected Democratic nomination for President in 2012 he won’t be running against a party but rather a specific candidate. Although none as yet have announced their intentions to run for President there is any number of assumed would-be Republicans setting their sights on the White House. For that research we turn to three polls taken between March 10-20th; Public Policy Polling, Harris Interactive and the Clarus Research Group.

The Clarus Research Group survey of 1,050 registered voters shows the President leading all five prospective GOP candidates and four of the five by comfortable, for now, margins. The exception is against former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney where Obama’s lead is a modest 45-41%. Romney is widely viewed as the current frontrunner in a stable of several legitimate Republican possibilities for 2012. His success in other polling, both against Obama and other GOP candidates, points to this fact. Elsewhere in the Clarus survey however the current President does fairly well. Obama leads former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 47-39%, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush 49-37% and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich 48-36%. Former Alaskan Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin trails Obama by a wide 52-34% margin.

As is usually the case President Obama does best when polling samples are expanded to include all adults. This is the case with the Harris Interactive survey of over 2,300 adults nationwide. Obama leads Mitt Romney by a 46-39% margin in this instance although his lead against Sarah Palin, while still large, is a slightly less commanding 52-35%.

Returning our focus to registered voter sampling the latest from Public Policy Polling has the most negative figures for the President to date. PPP shows Obama tied at 44% with Romney, with a slight lead of 46-44% on Huckabee and a far more modest 49-41% advantage over Palin. Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, who may be viewed as something of a dark horse candidate at this stage, is also included and shown to be trailing the President by a margin of 45-34%. Last month PPP also showed lesser known South Dakota junior Senator John Thune well behind the President to the tune of 46-28%.

Whether or not polling such as this ought to be taken seriously seven months before a crucial midterm and some 31-months prior to the next Presidential election is debatable. With the passage of sweeping health care legislation and immediate public reaction dominating the headlines currently it may also not be the best time to test the waters of a near boiling electorate. Still there are reasons for both comfort and concern for President Obama as the inevitable battle to replace him in 2012 gets underway.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / ALEX BRANDON

Analysis: In wake of sagging poll numbers can Sarah Palin still be GOP's nominee for 2012?

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Buried in the middle of lengthy new poll from ABC News / Washington Post are the latest findings on how the American public feels about one Sarah Palin. Fresh off her highly publicized and somewhat maligned keynote address at the Tea Party convention last week Sarah has herself another dose of bad news.

Just 37% of American adults have a favorable impression of Palin. 55% view her unfavorably. That is the lowest level of support and highest level of opposition yet recorded. Perhaps most damaging of all is a twelve-point drop in the number of Americans who believe the former Vice Presidential candidate is “qualified to serve as President.” Just over a quarter (26%) now thinks a Palin Administration can execute the duties of the White House competently. Better than seven in ten (71%) disagree.

That the new ABC / Post release is a random survey of just over a thousand U.S. adults and not a more targeted sample of registered or likely votes, who more often vote Republican, should offer little consolation to Palin and her supporters. Regardless of who is polling in the fifteen months since the election of 2008 the former Alaskan Governor has not approached the levels of enthusiasm she obtained in the months leading up to her and John McCain’s defeat that November.

Name recognition continues to be the political battering ram for Palin. Next to President Obama she is quite possibly the most identifiable current figure in American politics. In spite of her sluggish appeal from adults across the board and from all political affiliations her support within the GOP has deteriorated little. Gallup ranked her second behind Mitt Romney as the candidate Republicans would most like to see as their party’s nominee for 2012. Earlier today the same question was asked and again Sarah came in second place with the support of 11% of the GOP. Romney leads with 14%, John McCain is third drawing support from 7%, Mike Huckabee has faded to just 3% meanwhile and a large block of Republicans (42%) prefer a different candidate than the eleven listed from that poll.

Down but far from out Palin continues to hold on to a solid majority of support from her own party and 37% of Republicans still hold a “strongly favorably” view her. However only 45% of conservatives according to the ABC / Post survey consider Palin qualified for the Presidency. That’s a sharp drop from the nearly two-thirds (66%) who believed she was just a few months ago.

The Republican focus is perhaps sharply divided as well. Seeking to defeat President Obama, who is largely unpopular with GOP voters even by the normal standards of a critical opposition party, many within Republican ranks believe they’ll need to put their best foot forward in 2012. This could mean supporting a candidate that is more likely to win in the general election but who doesn’t necessarily appeal to all corners of the base rather than risking losing with a candidate who is a party favorite but can’t generate independent or moderate Democratic support. Of course it could also be argued that this sort of populist strategy backfired in the most recent election of 2008 when moderate John McCain lost handedly to Barack Obama.

Speaking again of Sarah’s chances Nate Silver from Fivethirtyeight.com recently assessed the possibilities for Palin to make it through the Republican primary in 2012.

Silver weighs several variables that will likely affect the outcome of the primary season two-years from now and places them in groupings. Fundraising for example could be a particularly effective tool for Sarah Palin in relation to her Republican counterparts. Her overall reach may be more limited than a Romney or Huckabee but her followers are more devoted, particularly in the western United States and in her home state of Alaska.

State by state variables from 2008 exit polls help reveal the nature of the electorate and what types of voters supported the McCain/Palin ticket that year, not just how many of them did. Palin seems to do best among those voters without college degrees and in states where there are a higher number of self described conservatives. The specific batch of conservatives that Palin runs strongest with are white Evangelical voters. Mike Huckabee however is also widely popular within that group and could outflank Palin in states with large Evangelical populations. Lastly Silver defines Palin’s best topic in attracting votes as through energy and terrorism policy. Sarah as explained by Silver requires less policy nuance in gaining traction with two of the more general topics that should be core issues in her still undetermined Presidential campaign.

Sarah’s strength is typically in western states and the Deep South. Fitting the bill Silver rates her twelve best states in order as being; Alaska, Wyoming, Mississippi, North Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Alabama, Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Oregon and Idaho. Conversely her weakest regions are the southwest and northeast and in states such as; Massachusetts, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, New York, Illinois, Utah, Delaware, Michigan, California and Pennsylvania.

The key early states in the primary, often responsible engineering critical momentum for a campaign, are Iowa, South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire. On average the four states rank around the middle of the pack for Sarah Palin in regards to her electoral strengths and weaknesses. Iowa and South Carolina in particular give her a good opportunity for victory whereas New Hampshire and Nevada are somewhat less likely.

Of course who else is running and in what specific order states will be voting could play a key role in determining what is expected to be a hotly contested Republican primary for 2012. Palin could do fairly well in what Silver describes are “second wave” voting states that play to her strengths in regions like the northwest and Deep South. Surviving through the early rounds should also build momentum that could carry her through certain states where she is less popular. However the exact order of those states is yet to be determined. Palin also could lose to Huckabee early on in Iowa, a state the former Arkansas Governor won in 2008, instantly undercutting her upward trajectory. She could also get hammered on the issues from political pros like Mitt Romney or simply lose to Huckabee or a wild-card candidate like Pennsylvania’s Rick Santorum with values voters in a war of attrition.

Ultimately Silver sees three different winnable scenarios for Sarah Palin in 2012.

1) She wins Iowa, South Carolina and a handful of “second wave” states primarily in the northwest. By doing so her momentum, barring any possible missteps, ought to be sufficient to defeat whoever is left standing in a narrowing field of Republican candidates.

2) This is the most complicated of scenarios. Palin needs to finish a strong second in Iowa presumably to Huckabee or a popular midwestern candidate. She then needs to pull out a win in South Carolina and power her way through to several victories in the aforementioned “second wave” states. She then wins some other large and important Republican stronghold in the south and rust belt region such as Texas, Florida or Georgia, Indiana or North Carolina, Ohio or Wisconsin.

3) Sarah takes Iowa as outlined in the first scenario and runs a strong second in South Carolina losing to someone other than Romney or another out of region candidate. Once again her best chance in “second wave” states that would come next would be to win big and regain momentum. Then the luck of the draw comes into play. Palin could be helped if the region that consists or the lower-Midwest, Deep South, Pacific Northwest, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Maryland votes next and she secures important victories in a handful of those states, most notably Texas. If the group that includes to rust belt, New York, Georgia and Florida votes next she’ll need to bet all of her chips on battleground states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio. If neither if those regions are the next to vote Sarah could be in serious trouble.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Ed Reinke

Poll: Huckabee & Romney remain GOP front-runners for 2012

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Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney continue to sit most favorably amongst a field of Republicans being considered for President in 2012.

Two and a half weeks ago a Rasmussen Reports survey as reported on here indicated that Republican preferences were highest for Huckabee (29%) and Romney (24%), followed in third place by Sarah Palin (18%). These figures are echoed in a recent poll released by Gallup/USA Today.

The first question was posed to Republicans only, asking them whether they would “seriously” consider supporting a field of six GOP hopefuls. Mike Huckabee again scored highest at 71% support from his own party against just 25% who would not support his campaign. Mitt Romney (65-31%) and Sarah Palin (65-33%) shared similar levels of support and opposition. Newt Gingrich is also a contender within the GOP ranks as 60% of Republicans would seriously considering voting for the former Speaker of the House against just 35% who would not. Rounding out the field are the lesser known Tim Pawlenty (32-48%) and Hanley Barbour (26-52%) who clearly need to work on their brand name appeal if they hope to compete with the four assumed frontrunners.

The good news for the top four potential candidates is the level of support they receive from their own party is fairly high. The bad news is no Republican candidate approaches 50% support from adults nationwide regardless of party.

Mike Huckabee again leads the field but the number of those who would seriously consider supporting the former Arkansas Governor’s campaign against those who would not is mired at 40% and 51% respectively. Mitt Romney’s appeal is similar with a 39-51% margin and Sarah Palin, who was shown to struggle heavily amongst Democratic voters, posts a less than desirable 33-63% split. Newt Gingrich (29-63%) has a hard time with Democrats and independents as well with the two lesser known candidates Pawlenty (18-60%) and Barbour (15-65%) struggling for support and recognition in these early stages.

Amongst their support from the opposition party Mitt Romney is the only Republican in this field of six who cracks 20% from Democrats who would seriously consider supporting his candidacy. As Gallup points out only around one in ten members from either party vote for an opposition candidate come election time. President Obama took just 9% of the Republican Party vote in 2008 and John McCain was supported by only 10% of Democrats. Lastly Gallup asks adults nationwide whether they think each of the candidates are qualified to be President. Again it’s Huckabee (50-36%) and Romney (49-39%) leading the field and the only two Republicans on the list who receive a positive margin of support. Long time politician Newt Gingrich is slightly in the negatives (44-46%), but it is Sarah Palin’s numbers that have to be viewed most alarming by her supporters. Less than a third (31%) of the electorate considers Palin qualified for the role of President against 62% who do not. Tim Pawlenty (25-51% and Haley Barbour (18-57%) again round out the field far behind the frontrunners.

An unscientific poll of 2,043 voters taken on this site last month found Mitt Romney (32%) to be the most preferred candidate to win the Republican nomination in 2012. He was followed by 19% support for Mike Huckabee, just 4% for Sarah Palin and a barely traceable 2% going to Newt Gingrich. The largest block (42%) however remains those who are either uncertain or support someone other than the top-four choices. With over two and a half years to go and numbers like these the GOP nomination is still clearly anyone’s game.

Photo credit: Associated Press / Manual Balce Ceneta