Poll: Huckabee & Romney remain GOP front-runners for 2012

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Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney continue to sit most favorably amongst a field of Republicans being considered for President in 2012.

Two and a half weeks ago a Rasmussen Reports survey as reported on here indicated that Republican preferences were highest for Huckabee (29%) and Romney (24%), followed in third place by Sarah Palin (18%). These figures are echoed in a recent poll released by Gallup/USA Today.

The first question was posed to Republicans only, asking them whether they would “seriously” consider supporting a field of six GOP hopefuls. Mike Huckabee again scored highest at 71% support from his own party against just 25% who would not support his campaign. Mitt Romney (65-31%) and Sarah Palin (65-33%) shared similar levels of support and opposition. Newt Gingrich is also a contender within the GOP ranks as 60% of Republicans would seriously considering voting for the former Speaker of the House against just 35% who would not. Rounding out the field are the lesser known Tim Pawlenty (32-48%) and Hanley Barbour (26-52%) who clearly need to work on their brand name appeal if they hope to compete with the four assumed frontrunners.

The good news for the top four potential candidates is the level of support they receive from their own party is fairly high. The bad news is no Republican candidate approaches 50% support from adults nationwide regardless of party.

Mike Huckabee again leads the field but the number of those who would seriously consider supporting the former Arkansas Governor’s campaign against those who would not is mired at 40% and 51% respectively. Mitt Romney’s appeal is similar with a 39-51% margin and Sarah Palin, who was shown to struggle heavily amongst Democratic voters, posts a less than desirable 33-63% split. Newt Gingrich (29-63%) has a hard time with Democrats and independents as well with the two lesser known candidates Pawlenty (18-60%) and Barbour (15-65%) struggling for support and recognition in these early stages.

Amongst their support from the opposition party Mitt Romney is the only Republican in this field of six who cracks 20% from Democrats who would seriously consider supporting his candidacy. As Gallup points out only around one in ten members from either party vote for an opposition candidate come election time. President Obama took just 9% of the Republican Party vote in 2008 and John McCain was supported by only 10% of Democrats. Lastly Gallup asks adults nationwide whether they think each of the candidates are qualified to be President. Again it’s Huckabee (50-36%) and Romney (49-39%) leading the field and the only two Republicans on the list who receive a positive margin of support. Long time politician Newt Gingrich is slightly in the negatives (44-46%), but it is Sarah Palin’s numbers that have to be viewed most alarming by her supporters. Less than a third (31%) of the electorate considers Palin qualified for the role of President against 62% who do not. Tim Pawlenty (25-51% and Haley Barbour (18-57%) again round out the field far behind the frontrunners.

An unscientific poll of 2,043 voters taken on this site last month found Mitt Romney (32%) to be the most preferred candidate to win the Republican nomination in 2012. He was followed by 19% support for Mike Huckabee, just 4% for Sarah Palin and a barely traceable 2% going to Newt Gingrich. The largest block (42%) however remains those who are either uncertain or support someone other than the top-four choices. With over two and a half years to go and numbers like these the GOP nomination is still clearly anyone’s game.

Photo credit: Associated Press / Manual Balce Ceneta

Poll: Palin plummets, Huckabee leads field of GOP hopefuls for 2012

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Two recent polls show a further decline in support for Sarah Palin while Mike Huckabee leads a hypothetical field of Republican candidates for President in 2012.

Sarah’s slide is a rather sudden one after several months of maintaining fairly steady numbers. The presence of the electrifying GOP upstart who joined John McCain’s Presidential ticket last year was greeted warmly by Republicans and many independents alike. Her recent struggles have been reported on by the likes of Gallup and Rasmussen Reports. In late-July Palin’s favorable ratings dropped into the negatives for the first time. Now her numbers amongst adults are mired at a 40% positive against 50% negative split, by far the worst ratings she has received since her introduction to the national stage in late-August of last year.

This is not the first time Palin has seen a dip in her popularity. Her 53% favorability rating after the 2008 Republican Convention marked a high point. It was undercut by the loss of the McCain-Palin ticket in the general election that fall which dropped her numbers to 42% according to Gallup however. Over the next seven months the now former Alaskan Governor saw her favorable and unfavorable figures run about even but this latest poll indicates a considerable spike in negative feelings toward her. While most Republicans (69%) like Sarah Palin a healthy quarter of the party holds a negative view of her. Democrats on the other hand have a strongly negative view of Palin to the tune of a 72-14% unfavorable to favorable margin. Independents meanwhile are also growing disillusion with Palin as her 41-48% favorable to unfavorable ratings atest.

Perhaps due in part to her resignation as Governor of Alaska, criticized in many circles, Palin’s decline has opened the door for other GOP hopefuls. Most notable on this list is former Arkansas Governor and current Fox TV host Mike Huckabee who ran a strong albeit losing campaign for President last year. One woman’s loss is another man’s gain according to polls from Rasmussen that show a six-point decline for Sarah Palin since July that corresponds to a seven-percent improvement for Huckabee.

Overall Huckabee leads a field of four legitimate contenders pulling in support of 29% of likely Republican voters in 2012. Mitt Romeny runs second with support of 24% of the party and Palin as previously mentioned has dropped to third at 18%. Also in the running is former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at 14% with Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty a distant fifth contender at 4% support. Even worse for Sarah Palin are the 21% of Republicans who say they would least like to see her win the party nomination. The frontrunners Huckabee (9%) and Romney (8%) are both in the single-digits in that category of voter non-preference.

In the event that the battle for the Republican nomination shapes up to be a two-way race both Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are again sitting pretty against Sarah Palin. Romney leads Palin by fifteen-points and Huckabee scores a 55-35% blowout victory on the hypothetical ballot. While fairly irrelevant due to the unlikely scenario that she’d win the Democratic nomination away from President Obama in 2012 Rasmussen also showed Hillary Clinton holding a sizeable 51-39% advantage over Palin in late-July.

In spite of her current struggles Sarah Palin continues to be part of any conversation involving GOP contenders for the 2012 Presidential race. Her autobiography Going Rogue: An American Life is already a best seller still a month before its actual release. Palin’s approval ratings remained high in her home state of Alaska even after the broad disappointment of her resignation this summer. Republicans as a group also remain hopeful for 2012. Rasmussen indicates that 81% of voters think it at least somewhat likely one of their own will defeat President Obama for reelection. 50% think it very likely a Republican administration will move back into the White House come January of 2013.