READ FULL STORY HEREMike Huckabee and Mitt Romney continue to sit most favorably amongst a field of Republicans being considered for President in 2012.
Two and a half weeks ago a Rasmussen Reports survey as reported on here indicated that Republican preferences were highest for Huckabee (29%) and Romney (24%), followed in third place by Sarah Palin (18%). These figures are echoed in a recent poll released by Gallup/USA Today.
The first question was posed to Republicans only, asking them whether they would “seriously” consider supporting a field of six GOP hopefuls. Mike Huckabee again scored highest at 71% support from his own party against just 25% who would not support his campaign. Mitt Romney (65-31%) and Sarah Palin (65-33%) shared similar levels of support and opposition. Newt Gingrich is also a contender within the GOP ranks as 60% of Republicans would seriously considering voting for the former Speaker of the House against just 35% who would not. Rounding out the field are the lesser known Tim Pawlenty (32-48%) and Hanley Barbour (26-52%) who clearly need to work on their brand name appeal if they hope to compete with the four assumed frontrunners.
The good news for the top four potential candidates is the level of support they receive from their own party is fairly high. The bad news is no Republican candidate approaches 50% support from adults nationwide regardless of party.
Mike Huckabee again leads the field but the number of those who would seriously consider supporting the former Arkansas Governor’s campaign against those who would not is mired at 40% and 51% respectively. Mitt Romney’s appeal is similar with a 39-51% margin and Sarah Palin, who was shown to struggle heavily amongst Democratic voters, posts a less than desirable 33-63% split. Newt Gingrich (29-63%) has a hard time with Democrats and independents as well with the two lesser known candidates Pawlenty (18-60%) and Barbour (15-65%) struggling for support and recognition in these early stages.
Amongst their support from the opposition party Mitt Romney is the only Republican in this field of six who cracks 20% from Democrats who would seriously consider supporting his candidacy. As Gallup points out only around one in ten members from either party vote for an opposition candidate come election time. President Obama took just 9% of the Republican Party vote in 2008 and John McCain was supported by only 10% of Democrats. Lastly Gallup asks adults nationwide whether they think each of the candidates are qualified to be President. Again it’s Huckabee (50-36%) and Romney (49-39%) leading the field and the only two Republicans on the list who receive a positive margin of support. Long time politician Newt Gingrich is slightly in the negatives (44-46%), but it is Sarah Palin’s numbers that have to be viewed most alarming by her supporters. Less than a third (31%) of the electorate considers Palin qualified for the role of President against 62% who do not. Tim Pawlenty (25-51% and Haley Barbour (18-57%) again round out the field far behind the frontrunners.
An unscientific poll of 2,043 voters taken on this site last month found Mitt Romney (32%) to be the most preferred candidate to win the Republican nomination in 2012. He was followed by 19% support for Mike Huckabee, just 4% for Sarah Palin and a barely traceable 2% going to Newt Gingrich. The largest block (42%) however remains those who are either uncertain or support someone other than the top-four choices. With over two and a half years to go and numbers like these the GOP nomination is still clearly anyone’s game.
Photo credit: Associated Press / Manual Balce Ceneta
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