Analysis: Can Sarah Palin win the Republican nomination? What is she up against

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Speculation continues to circulate as to whether Sarah Palin will officially make a bid for the White House in 2012.

Never straying far from the media vista Palin has once again been plastered on the front pages and no doubt received heavy discussion around water coolers this week. Her recently released autobiography is a bestseller, she has made a number of high profile interviews and even found controversy along way – this time slamming Newsweek as “sexist” and “out of context” for her portrayal on a recent cover of the magazine.

Yet it’s the subject matter from publications such as Newsweek openly declaring, as their headlines suggests, (“How Do You Solve a Problem Like Sarah Palin: She’s bad news for the GOP – and for everybody else, too.”) that brings to light the important questions. Often on the campaign trail last year Republican Presidential nominee John McCain accused then Senator Barack Obama of being more of a national celebrity than political statesman. If however Obama was to be the celebrity du jour than Palin has become a genuine pop-star. She holds court over legions of adoring fans but receives the scorn of just as many. Overcoming both political obstacles and public perception is a treacherous road traveled but Palin needs to sustain her level of popularity while proving her substance to a sizable block of skeptics. Let the numbers speak.

Recent polls have indicated that Sarah Palin has fallen to a distant third in Republican preference for their party’s nominee in 2012. That said a recent Rasmussen survey indicates a considerable number of GOP voters are still on board with Sarah as the 59-21% margin of those who feel she shares their values against those who do not would attest. This comes at a time when just 18% of Republicans believe their GOP representatives in Congress have done a good job representing their base. Being a relative newcomer to the scene and not tarnished as a current member of the House or Senate Palin perhaps has an opportunity to succeed as the non-establishment candidate even after being tapped as John McCain’s running mate just last year.

While much has been made of Palin’s role and whether she is a good thing for the Republican Party just 18% of those in GOP camp consider her a divisive force, and only 26% of voters overall share in that opinion. On the negative side Rasmussen also concludes that just 21% of Americans have a very favorable opinion against 29% who hold a very negative view of Sarah Palin. These figures mirror the results of other national polls showing that in spite of her popularity Sarah’s standing with the public is troublesome for a presumptive Presidential candidate.

A recent CBS News poll finds that just 23% of adults hold a favorable view of the former Alaskan Governor against 38% who do not. Of equal concern these figures are virtually identical to the last CBS poll taken on Palin from early-July. Additionally just 24% of Americans claim they would like to see Sarah Palin run for President in three years and only 26% think she can be effective in office if elected.

Less harsh but still clearly mired in the negatives are the results from an ABC/Washington Post survey. In this poll 43% of adults view Sarah Palin favorably against 52% who hold a negative view. This is actually a slight rebound for Palin from their last poll in mid-July but a huge decline in her favorable numbers from the early-fall of 2008. 46% of poll responders claim they would at least consider voting "Palin for President" in 2012 but only 9% of that block suggests they would “definitely” vote for her against 53% who definitely would not. Furthermore Sarah is seen as being qualified for the position of President by just 38% of adults nationwide according to this ABC poll.

Still there are many reasons why Sarah Palin should be considering capable of making a successful run for the White House, or at least why she should not be counted out.

Nate Silver of www.fivethirtyeight.com gives a list of ten specific reasons (read his full comments here) to believe in Sarah's chances of success. Included are the following; Palin creates a level of enthusiasm among supporters that no other GOP hopeful currently has and this could be particularly helpful for her in the primaries. The likely prospects that the Republican Party will rebound in the 2010 midterms creates a more favorable political base for Palin than what currently exists. The other candidates are flawed according to Silver’s assessment of the current GOP field, and there is of course the chance that one or more of the top candidates might not run for President. Palin’s love/hate relationship with the media is good for ratings and circulation and at least in the primaries that same media will be rooting for her.

Palin has also created a rather defensive position that can work in her favor against other candidates. She is tough to campaign against and any slight or criticism that strays from the political realm will have her supporters rallying around her. Silver also contends that attempts by the Republican establishment to neuter her may backfire again playing into the victimization complex held by Palin and her faithful. The fact that there are virtually no moderates left in the Republican base probably works in Palin’s favor as well, as most voters that hold negatives views of her are either found in the Democratic Party, are political independents or make up the small percentage of liberal Republicans. The aforementioned either will not be eligible to vote in the Republican primaries or not number enough to keep her from competing in the early rounds.

The idea that parties tend to nominate more extreme candidates in elections against incumbents is good for Palin if true. It creates a healthy and visible difference between the candidate and who they would be running against from the incumbent party, in this case President Obama in all likelihood. The concept of striking differences and a battle for the soul of American politics (ex: Republican vs. Democrat, Conservative vs. Liberal, Outsider vs. Establishment, Democracy vs. Socialism, Woman vs. Man, etc) is a tasty proposition for a party with bruised confidence. That said the more radical candidates generally do not fair well in these match ups. Barry Goldwater, George McGovern, Walter Mondale all lost in landslide elections whereas the more status quo options for either party (Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton) were quite successful.

The splintered Republican base ultimately creates an opportunity for a candidate such as Sarah Palin where in other elections and eras she may not be perceived as a contender. That she gets the new media, and the new media gets her is an important consideration as Palin looks to “overcome what I expect will prove to be a relatively shoddy traditional infrastructure” Silver concludes.

PHOTO CREDIT: NEWSWEEK (FILE PHOTO)