Corzine or Christie? Predicting who will win New Jersey Governor in fifteen questions

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With so many polls and talking heads in the media covering the upcoming New Jersey Governor’s election perhaps it’s now time to place some odds and make some predictions.

As mentioned the other day on this site there is a wide range of polling on the issue. Depending on what source and whose numbers you choose to believe Governor Corzine could be primed for reelection or doomed to defeat. The consensus is that this race is locked in a virtual dead-heat with no clear frontrunner. Pollster.com has things exactly even with both Jon Corzine and challenger Chris Christie tied at 42%. Other publications like Survey USA and Quinnipiac seem to be showing a small rebound in Christie’s number over the weekend from polls taken last week that showed the Governor with the advantage. A Monmouth University poll on the other hand is registering some late game movement for Corzine.

Nate Silver from fivethirtyeight.com has been following the coverage closely. Silver poses fifteen “clarifying” questions on the topic of the race for Governor with the purpose of getting a better idea of who in fact is primed to win the race regardless of poll numbers or figures lying therein. You are encouraged to view Silver's thoughts on tomorrow’s election in full here but below is an overview.

1) Which Candidate’s Supporters are more enthusiastic? Significant Edge: Christie

2) Which candidate is liable to have the better turnout operation? Significant Edge: Corzine

3) Is one of the candidates a challenger to an incumbent, who might benefit from the “incumbent rule”? Significant Edge: Christie

4) Do the demographics of the undecided vote, or the weakly-attached third-party vote, favor either of the candidates? Edge: Corzine

5) Which candidate got the more favorable coverage in the morning newspaper, or on the local evening news, on the Sunday before the election? Toss-up

6) Which candidate has the better “elevator pitch”, particularly as encapsulated by the commercials they've run in the 48 hours before the election? Edge: Christie

7) Which candidate has a headwind at their back from the national political environment, or has a message that squares better with the national political mood? Which candidate's party is liable to have the better Election Night nationwide? Edge: Christie

8) Does either candidate begin with a built-in lead from early or absentee voting? Edge: Corzine

9) Which candidate, if any, stands to benefit from upballot or downballot races? Slight Edge: Christie

10) Which candidate stands to benefit from cellphone-only voters, who may not be included in the polls? Slight Edge: Corzine

11) Has the polling in previous elections in the state, or in similar elections in similar states, tended systematically to underestimate the performance of either candidate's party? Toss-up

12) Which candidate attracted more people to their campaign appearances in the state over the last two weeks of the campaign? Slight Edge: Corzine

13) Which candidate got more contributions over the last six weeks of the campaign from voters within the state? Significant Edge: Christie

14) Which candidate has run the more positive, optimistic campaign, and will leave voters feeling better about themselves as they exit the polling place? Edge: Christie

15) Which candidate's party controls the state's electoral and judicial apparatus, in the event of a recount or otherwise disputed election? Significant Edge: Corzine

Silver’s final scorecard tally is then adjusted to reflect not only which candidate won the majority of questions/categories but to what extent. If we were to allocate a number to each description it would wind up with three-points being distributed to either candidate with a “significant edge” in a category, two-points for a basic “edge” and one-point for a “slight edge”. The two questions being rated as “toss-up” categories using Silver’s description would simply give zero points to either candidate.

This brings us to a 16-12 Chris Christie lead over Governor Corzine as we are less than 24-hours from Election Day. Broken down further we can claim Christie as a 4:3 favorite in the race or estimate that he has about a 57% chance of becoming New Jersey’s next Governor.

"Obviously, anybody's race, but I'd make Christie about the 4:3 favorite. If Christie wins, it will probably be because of greater enthusiasm among his voters and a slightly more well-rounded close to his campaign. If Corzine wins, it will probably be because of his institutional and organizational advantages in getting his base to the polls." -- Nate Silver, Fivethirtyeight.com