Corzine or Christie? Predicting who will win New Jersey Governor in fifteen questions

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With so many polls and talking heads in the media covering the upcoming New Jersey Governor’s election perhaps it’s now time to place some odds and make some predictions.

As mentioned the other day on this site there is a wide range of polling on the issue. Depending on what source and whose numbers you choose to believe Governor Corzine could be primed for reelection or doomed to defeat. The consensus is that this race is locked in a virtual dead-heat with no clear frontrunner. Pollster.com has things exactly even with both Jon Corzine and challenger Chris Christie tied at 42%. Other publications like Survey USA and Quinnipiac seem to be showing a small rebound in Christie’s number over the weekend from polls taken last week that showed the Governor with the advantage. A Monmouth University poll on the other hand is registering some late game movement for Corzine.

Nate Silver from fivethirtyeight.com has been following the coverage closely. Silver poses fifteen “clarifying” questions on the topic of the race for Governor with the purpose of getting a better idea of who in fact is primed to win the race regardless of poll numbers or figures lying therein. You are encouraged to view Silver's thoughts on tomorrow’s election in full here but below is an overview.

1) Which Candidate’s Supporters are more enthusiastic? Significant Edge: Christie

2) Which candidate is liable to have the better turnout operation? Significant Edge: Corzine

3) Is one of the candidates a challenger to an incumbent, who might benefit from the “incumbent rule”? Significant Edge: Christie

4) Do the demographics of the undecided vote, or the weakly-attached third-party vote, favor either of the candidates? Edge: Corzine

5) Which candidate got the more favorable coverage in the morning newspaper, or on the local evening news, on the Sunday before the election? Toss-up

6) Which candidate has the better “elevator pitch”, particularly as encapsulated by the commercials they've run in the 48 hours before the election? Edge: Christie

7) Which candidate has a headwind at their back from the national political environment, or has a message that squares better with the national political mood? Which candidate's party is liable to have the better Election Night nationwide? Edge: Christie

8) Does either candidate begin with a built-in lead from early or absentee voting? Edge: Corzine

9) Which candidate, if any, stands to benefit from upballot or downballot races? Slight Edge: Christie

10) Which candidate stands to benefit from cellphone-only voters, who may not be included in the polls? Slight Edge: Corzine

11) Has the polling in previous elections in the state, or in similar elections in similar states, tended systematically to underestimate the performance of either candidate's party? Toss-up

12) Which candidate attracted more people to their campaign appearances in the state over the last two weeks of the campaign? Slight Edge: Corzine

13) Which candidate got more contributions over the last six weeks of the campaign from voters within the state? Significant Edge: Christie

14) Which candidate has run the more positive, optimistic campaign, and will leave voters feeling better about themselves as they exit the polling place? Edge: Christie

15) Which candidate's party controls the state's electoral and judicial apparatus, in the event of a recount or otherwise disputed election? Significant Edge: Corzine

Silver’s final scorecard tally is then adjusted to reflect not only which candidate won the majority of questions/categories but to what extent. If we were to allocate a number to each description it would wind up with three-points being distributed to either candidate with a “significant edge” in a category, two-points for a basic “edge” and one-point for a “slight edge”. The two questions being rated as “toss-up” categories using Silver’s description would simply give zero points to either candidate.

This brings us to a 16-12 Chris Christie lead over Governor Corzine as we are less than 24-hours from Election Day. Broken down further we can claim Christie as a 4:3 favorite in the race or estimate that he has about a 57% chance of becoming New Jersey’s next Governor.

"Obviously, anybody's race, but I'd make Christie about the 4:3 favorite. If Christie wins, it will probably be because of greater enthusiasm among his voters and a slightly more well-rounded close to his campaign. If Corzine wins, it will probably be because of his institutional and organizational advantages in getting his base to the polls." -- Nate Silver, Fivethirtyeight.com

Polls divided in New Jersey, race for Governor remains a toss-up

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And down the stretch they come…

In less than four days droves of New Jersey residents will head to their local precincts and cast their vote for Governor. For months the race between sitting Governor Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie has grabbed local headlines and peaked interest nationally. The possible bellwether effect being touted by many media pundits will render its first high profile success story or failure for either party this Tuesday November 3rd.

As this election directly relates to the outcome of the impending 2010 midterms will stay unknown for quite some time. Both parties however will surely celebrate a victory and tout it as a sign of things to come. A Christie victory will be the first big step on the road to recovery for a banged up GOP. An upset from vulnerable incumbent Corzine will allow Democrats to drive home the perception that while 2009 has been a shaky year they remain the stronger party.

The last and most important round of polling will be conducted early next week, for now we see some varying results that point to an increasingly tight race.

Real Clear Politics is a useful resource in that it averages out the totals from several recent polls on any number of topics. In the instance of this NJ Governor’s race six major polls have been released over the past week. The cumulative effect shows a narrow lead for Governor Corzine averaging out to 41.8 – 40.5% margin of victory. Independent candidate Christopher Daggett runs a respectable third taking in eleven-percent of the vote.

The problem is not every poll is created equal. Even if the methods used by all polls were both accurate and consistent to one another the relative size of the survey would also play a factor. Far and away the two largest of the six surveys being captured by RCP are from the reliable polling organizations Rasmussen Reports and Quinnipiac Uniersity. What is interesting then is the disparity between these two polls. Rasmussen has Republican Christie clinging to a 46-43% lead in the race for Governor with Chris Daggett falling further behind at 8%. Quinnipiac on the other hand polling 1,267 likely voters in New Jersey now projects a 43-38% lead for Governor Corzine and Daggett at 13% of the vote also scoring with greater impact.

Any number of reasons could explain the eight-point swing gathered between both polls. Looking at each of Corzine and Christie’s favorability ratings is one such indication. According to Rasmussen Governor Corzine has a 44-54% favorable to unfavorable split with New Jersey voters. Chris Christie meanwhile is at 48% and 50% respectively. The Quinnipiac survey meanwhile has Corzine at a 41-52% margin and challenger Christie lagging at a 37-42% figure. With voters in the Garden State as narrowly divided between both challengers as the polls indicate it stands to reason that most will cast their vote for the candidate they simply dislike less.

If the differences between the results from recent Rasmussen and Quinnipiac surveys didn’t already leave plenty of gray area other pollsters show a range of figures as well. A Suffolk University survey gathering data from just 400 likely voters and a staggeringly high number of self-described independents shows Corzine with a nine-point lead. The latest Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of 600 likely voters fits Chris Christie with narrow 42-41% lead. Survey USA who does well with their sampling but asks some curiously odd questions like; “What is your favorite NFL team” and “Are you a Bruce Springsteen fan” has the race locked in a 43-43% dead-heat. Fairleigh Dickinson polling nearly 700-likely voters has Christie inching his way out to a narrow 41-39% lead with two in ten New Jersey voters going for either independent Chris Daggett or some other candidate.

With the race for New Jersery Governor having reached the back stretch two things seem clear in regards to polling. First is that most agree the heated campaign is also a very tight one and could be decided by just a few thousand votes on Election Day. Secondly is that in spite of the closeness being portrayed there is no consensus on a likely winner. Some polling organizations will have clear bragging rights with others wiping the egg off of their faces next Tuesday.

Poll: New Jersey Governor's race now a toss-up

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After many months of trailing in the polls Governor Jon Corzine has essentially caught up.

With just weeks to go in the race for New Jersey Governor the incumbent Democrat has been thrust into a virtual toss-up against Republican challenger Chris Christie. These are latest findings from both Quinnipiac and Rasmussen measuring the preference of likely voters in the Garden State.

As reported here two weeks ago in conjunction with Quinnipiac’s previous survey Christie’s lead had shrunk to four-points, 43-39%. Now the latest poll finds a statistically insignificant one-percentage point lead for the Republican challenger, 41-40%. At 14% New Jersey voters are also recording their highest level of preference yet for independent candidate Christopher Daggett.

Months of attack ads and the historical nature of New Jersey politics that generally finds Democratic candidates doing well down the stretch has no doubt boosted the embattled Governor in the polls. Rasmussen still has Christie leading the race 47-44% but the three-point spread is now within the margin of error and down from a seven-point Corzine deficit just two weeks ago.

It's still a nail-biter. Christopher Christie has never given up the lead,
but it's been getting slimmer and now it's a dead heat -- Maurice Carroll,
director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Negative perceptions of either major candidate persist. Governor Corzine is viewed unfavorably by 52% in New Jersey and favorably by just 45%. Chris Christie meanwhile does not fair much better with a 46-50% favorable to unfavorable split. 21% of Garden State voters say they would at least consider voting for third-party challenger Daggett at this point and a third of the electorate remains either undecided or willing to change their mind before Election Day, November 3rd.

The largest lead for Republican challenger Christie came back on July 14th when he measured a nine-point edge according to Quinnipiac. 27% of responders in that survey also claim they may change their mind on which candidate to support before entering the voting booth. The perception that Christopher Daggett may play a spoiler role in this race is evident by the 40-33% margin of current Daggett supporters who would otherwise have voted for Christie in a two-way race against Governor Corzine.

Chris Christie’s unfavorable rating now at 40% represents a new high according to the Quinnipiac poll. Jon Corzine fairs even worse with New Jersey voters with a 53% unfavorable but his 40% favorable is at a three-month high and up six-percentage points from September 30th. A clear majority of voters continue to disapprove of the way Corzine is handling his job as Governor but his numbers have improved somewhat in that area as well. Currently the Governor has a 39-56% approval to disapproval rating up modestly from a 34-60% split at the beginning of September.

One specific issue where Chris Christie may be losing ground is on taxes. While New Jersey voters have shown a preference towards the Republican challenger in this area throughout the campaign a plurality (35%) believe their taxes will go up even if he is elected. Governor Corzine struggles on this issue with 62% of voters believing their taxes will increase. With a sizable number of voters thinking things will stay about the same however, the key wedge issue Christie was aiming for may be rendered irrelevant.

Stay tuned for the exciting final twenty-days of polling from the New Jersey Gubernatorial campaign and see just how accurate the constant surveying proves to be.

Poll: Corzine still trails Christie in New Jersey Governor's race

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With less than a month and a half remaining in the New Jersey Governor’s race incumbent Jon Corzine simply isn’t picking up ground quickly enough on Republican challenger Chris Christie.

Residents of the greater Philadelphia area as well as national pundits continue to follow this race closely. It has been suggested that an off-election year race for Governor serves as something of a barometer to what sort of political tide we can expect to see in 2010 and beyond. If that is indeed the case the Democrats might want to rethink their game plan, for a Republican has not won a statewide election in New Jersey since 1997 and according to the latest Rasmussen poll the Democratic Governor trails 48-41%.

This figure actually represents a slight, if statistically insignificant improvement for Corzine from a previous Rasmussen’s poll released earlier this month showed him trailing his Republican challenger by eight percentage-points. Independent Chris Daggett who recently placed a humorous TV ad lampooning both major-party candidates never the less is struggling to make his mark in the race, attracting just 6% of the vote.

For Christie the 48% of support he is receiving from Garden State voters means of course that he is still under the 50% threshold and not exactly running away with the race. Christie’s popularity peaked a month ago when Rasmussen indicated that the former U.S. Attorney and prosecutor led 50-42%. More recently a poll pegged him at just 46% of the vote but more importantly his lead of seven or eight points over that span has remained in tact.

Governor Corzine meanwhile can’t seem to budge the overall negative perceptions New Jersey residents have of him in spite of a barrage of television spots over the past several weeks. Just 38% of voters in the Garden State approve of his job performance against 61% who do not. Almost identical to that and also critically low for an incumbent at this point in a campaign season is his personal favorability mired at a 39-60% positive to negative split. Not that Christie is wildly popular either as his 48-46% favorable to unfavorable margin attests. But more than anything this election is being played up as a referendum on the policies of incumbent Governor Corzine.

New Jersey is a left-leaning state and as Rasmussen points out Democrats traditionally close strong even with their poll numbers lagging late in races. The presence of independent Chris Daggett, while not a threat to win never the less presents a problem for Corzine however. Eight-percent of Democrats plan to cast their vote for Daggett against just 2% of Republicans who suggest they are defecting. If Corzine was simply able to close that margin of six-points between the third-party support being offered by Democrats and Republicans this race would be a virtual dead-heat.

As it stands we will continue to watch this race as it heads into the back stretch. No lack of fanfare should be expected regardless of the result. If Christie wins it will be viewed by Republicans as a comeback for the party and an important step in their quest to take back power in 2010 – or at least close the gap considerably. On the flip side if Corzine pulls off what now has to be labeled an upset it will too be viewed, this time by Democrats, as a comeback and important step in stabilizing the current balance of power.

Poll: Gov. Corzine still trails in New Jersey, but by how much?

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Depending on what poll you are looking at the highly conspicuous New Jersey race for Governor may either be tightening, widening or staying about the same. As we head into mid-September a couple of recent polls shed some light on the current state of affairs in this Garden State showdown.

Two surveys from Quinnipiac and Rasmussen describe a race from differing perspectives using similar numbers. The Quinnipiac poll for starters now has Republican challenger Chris Christie ahead of New Jersey Governor John Corzine 47-37% with independent Christopher Daggett pulling in nine-percent of likely voters. This points to the possibility of a failed attack ad campaign from the Governor and a widening race overall. Last month Christie’s lead over Corzine was pitted at a more modest six-point gap, 46-40%.

Rasmussen meanwhile has the spread at eight-percentage points with the challenger leading 46-38%, 6% for Daggett and one in ten New Jersey voters remaining undecided. As the race heads toward the home stretch it seems that voters are growing less certain of either candidate. Christie’s eight-point lead in the Rasmussen poll remains steady from a month ago, but both candidates have shown a drop of four-percentages points from a 50-42% race in August. Furthermore Rasmussen points to a gap that may in fact be closing in favor of Governor Corzine. When “leaners” are added to the mix Chris Christie’s lead is down to just four-points.

At 42% the Republican challenger has seen a six-point drop in the number of those with a favorable view of him. Governor Corzine meanwhile has jumped nearly ten-percentage points over the past month to a 45% favorable rating. Corzine’s unfavorables however remain considerably higher.

Moving our attention back to the Quinnipiac survey we see that while Governor Corzine does have improving numbers amongst Democratic voters the 74-15% split he has with his own party is far worse than the 86-8% support Christie receives from Republicans. While there is still the possibly for Corzine to cultivate grater support within his party it seems clear the independent vote is where he is losing this race. Christie’s lead amongst such voters is 46-30% over the Governor with 16% going to Daggett in a possible role of spoiler.

The launching of attack ads from Corzine-camp has proven to be relatively ineffective, just as Christie’s criticisms of the Governor have failed to gain much traction. A plurality of voters (49-43%) finds it unfair that Corzine attacks Christie for his loan to a former associate in the U.S. Attorney’s office. By a margin of 47-45% most feel unmerited criticism of Governor Corzine’s relationship with a former labor leader. There is an even 47-47% split meanwhile of those considering Christie’s attacks on the Governor’s failure to guard against New Jersey’s economic collapse to be warranted.

"Just about everyone has seen Gov. Jon Corzine's TV ads knocking Christopher Christie's ties to the Bush team, but most question whether it's a legitimate issue. “Unfair” they say…The Democratic attacks about Christie's loan to his former co-worker score a little higher. Christie gets a split on his ads criticizing Corzine for failing to protect New Jersey against the economic downturn." -- Maurice Carroll / Quinnipiac University Polling Institute Director

What is interesting when reviewing the figures released by both of these surveys is how they differ on topic of each candidate’s approval rating. The Rasmussen poll shows Governor Corzine with a 40% approval rating amongst New Jersey voters but Quinnipiac has his number considerably lower at 34%. The numbers for Christie meanwhile are nearly identical between the two polls but Rasmussen shows a decline in support for the Republican whereas Quinnipiac

No Republican has won a statewide race in New Jersey since 1997. The political climate in the Garden State favors a possible GOP takeover in 2010, but if in fact the numbers for Corzine closely mirror those found in the Rassmussen survey the possibility of a tight race heading into the homestretch could be likely. That said, with the incumbent Governor in all likelihood trailing and short on time to catch up the next batch of October polling could reveal the eventual winner in New Jersey.

Poll: Governor Corzine on the rebound in Garden State showdown

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In such a volatile political climate where the pressures from a struggling economy and fractured electorate put even popular elected officials to the test, Jon Corzine is forced to come from behind as sitting Governor of New Jersey.

Corzine is no stranger to digging out of deep political holes. Upon the retirement of Democratic Senator Frank Lautenberg Corzine ran for the open seat in 2000. According to polls he was trailing by as much as thirty percentage points in the race before pulling out a 50-47% victory over Republican Bob Franks.

Considered by many as one of the most liberal U.S. Senators Corzine, while in office, pushed for universal health care coverage, gun registration laws, same-sex marriage and affirmative action policies. In fact the National Journal in 2004 ranked him as being the fourth most liberal Senator, slightly to the left of Ted Kennedy (D-Ma).

Yet it has been anything but smooth sailing for Corzine since moving into the Governor’s mansion in New Jersey. He entered office in the wake of a state shutdown and his approval ratings sagged as a result. By early 2007 the Governor had rebounded considerably with a 50-34% approval to disapproval rating spread according Quinnipiac. His controversial state budget decrease plans however were met with opposition sending his numbers back down to 40%.

Then in April of 2007 Corzine was involved in a near fatal automobile accident. Breaking several bones and receiving lacerations Corzine, not wearing a seat belt, was initially in critical condition being flown to a New Jersey hospital with the state trooper who was driving the vehicle. Both have since recovered, but the lingering question now is to whether Corzine’s political career can do the same.

As recently as late May a Rasmussen poll showed Corzine trailing upstart Republican prosecutor Chris Christie by an alarming 47-38% margin. “Big Boy” Christie’s ascension in New Jersey politics is particularly impressive when considering the Garden State’s considerable lean to the political left on most issues and in their relationship with candidates. Still the GOP is battling against history. Christy Todd Whitman was the last Republican elected to a statewide office some twelve years ago.

But where did things go wrong for Jon Corzine? He came into politics with a boat load of cash on hand and was referred to as one of the most notable Senate additions after winning his seat in November of 2000.

Corzine is a spender, using over $100 million in his Senate and Governor campaigns. Arguing against high property taxes and linking his 2005 opponent Doug Forrester to Bush administration policies Corzine was successful in his bid for Governor by a 54-43% margin. He is also a proactive Governor and has familiarity on nationwide issues sponsoring 145-bills and co-sponsoring 1,014 white a Senator. Attacking Christie on social issues is perhaps the key to a Corzine comeback. A recent Fairleigh Dickinson poll suggested that doing both has helped close the gap to six points with Christie’s lead, if largely accurate, down to a more manageable 45-39%.

Additionally the Corzine camp is stepping up attacks on Christie’s prosecutorial record. Nate Silver of Fiverthirtyeight.com comments;

Christie’s past boss in the Justice Department, former Attorney General John
Ashcroft, reaped $28-52 million from a Christie-awarded contract to monitor a
company that had been accused of paying kickbacks to doctors. Christie also
awarded another contract to David M. Kelley who had decided not to prosecute
Chris Christie’s brother, Todd Christie, in a stock fraud case while serving as
U.S. Attorney in Manhattan. These contracts are no-bid contracts and are awarded
exclusively on the discretion of the U.S. Attorney, i.e. Chris Christie. – Nate
Silver / Fivethirtyeight.com

Farleigh Dickinson poll director Peter Woolley considers it “remarkable that a Republican is running ahead in New Jersey” but still notes that it’s early in the campaign season. The poll finds that 15% of voters remained undecided. Considering the state’s left-leaning electorate this could spell trouble for Christie as many late and disenchanted voters could break for Corzine. Still it’s unimaginable that the Governor is in a competitive race considering his favorable ratings rest at a paltry 31% with just 21% of New Jersey poll responders considered their state to be on the “right track”.

Corzine needs to rebound with Democrats who have shown him lukewarm support in this poll. Just 66% support the Governor in this race and his overall favorable-unfavorable rating in the party is an alarming 48-37%. By contrast President Barack Obama has the support of 86% of New Jersey Democrats, and not surprisingly the politically savvy Corzine is planning a rally with President Obama on July 16th.

While coming in behind of Christie on polling of important issues, Corzine’s ace in the hole might be the experience factor. When asked the question of which candidate “has the background and experience to be a good governor”, Corzine outdoes his Republican adversary 42-29%. Although the question of whether both candidates have the necessary background and experience to handle the job apparently was not asked.

It would take quite the magic trick for Corzine to lift his approval ratings up to the standard of a typical incumbent Governor poised for election victory. That isn’t to suggest however that there are no rabbits left in his hat. New Jersey voters are increasingly showing they need a reason to vote Republican. In an election match up that features two tarnished and/or fairly unpopular candidates the default voting position most often sides with the Democrat.

Jon Corzine’s fate may rest with the success and failure of the economy. His approval ratings over the past two years rise and fall with the percentage of New Jersey voters who feel their state is headed in the right direction. Corzine has hitched his wagon to the "Obama Express", another politician in a heated battle for the hearts and minds of voters. Polling suggests the Governor needs to keep chipping away at the Christie lead by securing more faith in fellow Democrats. Stay tuned for another round of numbers next month to see if Corzine is indeed making a resurgence.