READ FULL STORY HERE
With less than a month and a half remaining in the New Jersey Governor’s race incumbent Jon Corzine simply isn’t picking up ground quickly enough on Republican challenger Chris Christie.
Residents of the greater Philadelphia area as well as national pundits continue to follow this race closely. It has been suggested that an off-election year race for Governor serves as something of a barometer to what sort of political tide we can expect to see in 2010 and beyond. If that is indeed the case the Democrats might want to rethink their game plan, for a Republican has not won a statewide election in New Jersey since 1997 and according to the latest Rasmussen poll the Democratic Governor trails 48-41%.
This figure actually represents a slight, if statistically insignificant improvement for Corzine from a previous Rasmussen’s poll released earlier this month showed him trailing his Republican challenger by eight percentage-points. Independent Chris Daggett who recently placed a humorous TV ad lampooning both major-party candidates never the less is struggling to make his mark in the race, attracting just 6% of the vote.
For Christie the 48% of support he is receiving from Garden State voters means of course that he is still under the 50% threshold and not exactly running away with the race. Christie’s popularity peaked a month ago when Rasmussen indicated that the former U.S. Attorney and prosecutor led 50-42%. More recently a poll pegged him at just 46% of the vote but more importantly his lead of seven or eight points over that span has remained in tact.
Governor Corzine meanwhile can’t seem to budge the overall negative perceptions New Jersey residents have of him in spite of a barrage of television spots over the past several weeks. Just 38% of voters in the Garden State approve of his job performance against 61% who do not. Almost identical to that and also critically low for an incumbent at this point in a campaign season is his personal favorability mired at a 39-60% positive to negative split. Not that Christie is wildly popular either as his 48-46% favorable to unfavorable margin attests. But more than anything this election is being played up as a referendum on the policies of incumbent Governor Corzine.
New Jersey is a left-leaning state and as Rasmussen points out Democrats traditionally close strong even with their poll numbers lagging late in races. The presence of independent Chris Daggett, while not a threat to win never the less presents a problem for Corzine however. Eight-percent of Democrats plan to cast their vote for Daggett against just 2% of Republicans who suggest they are defecting. If Corzine was simply able to close that margin of six-points between the third-party support being offered by Democrats and Republicans this race would be a virtual dead-heat.
As it stands we will continue to watch this race as it heads into the back stretch. No lack of fanfare should be expected regardless of the result. If Christie wins it will be viewed by Republicans as a comeback for the party and an important step in their quest to take back power in 2010 – or at least close the gap considerably. On the flip side if Corzine pulls off what now has to be labeled an upset it will too be viewed, this time by Democrats, as a comeback and important step in stabilizing the current balance of power.
No comments:
Post a Comment