READ FULL STORY HEREDepending on what poll you are looking at the highly conspicuous New Jersey race for Governor may either be tightening, widening or staying about the same. As we head into mid-September a couple of recent polls shed some light on the current state of affairs in this Garden State showdown.
Two surveys from Quinnipiac and Rasmussen describe a race from differing perspectives using similar numbers. The Quinnipiac poll for starters now has Republican challenger Chris Christie ahead of New Jersey Governor John Corzine 47-37% with independent Christopher Daggett pulling in nine-percent of likely voters. This points to the possibility of a failed attack ad campaign from the Governor and a widening race overall. Last month Christie’s lead over Corzine was pitted at a more modest six-point gap, 46-40%.
Rasmussen meanwhile has the spread at eight-percentage points with the challenger leading 46-38%, 6% for Daggett and one in ten New Jersey voters remaining undecided. As the race heads toward the home stretch it seems that voters are growing less certain of either candidate. Christie’s eight-point lead in the Rasmussen poll remains steady from a month ago, but both candidates have shown a drop of four-percentages points from a 50-42% race in August. Furthermore Rasmussen points to a gap that may in fact be closing in favor of Governor Corzine. When “leaners” are added to the mix Chris Christie’s lead is down to just four-points.
At 42% the Republican challenger has seen a six-point drop in the number of those with a favorable view of him. Governor Corzine meanwhile has jumped nearly ten-percentage points over the past month to a 45% favorable rating. Corzine’s unfavorables however remain considerably higher.
Moving our attention back to the Quinnipiac survey we see that while Governor Corzine does have improving numbers amongst Democratic voters the 74-15% split he has with his own party is far worse than the 86-8% support Christie receives from Republicans. While there is still the possibly for Corzine to cultivate grater support within his party it seems clear the independent vote is where he is losing this race. Christie’s lead amongst such voters is 46-30% over the Governor with 16% going to Daggett in a possible role of spoiler.
The launching of attack ads from Corzine-camp has proven to be relatively ineffective, just as Christie’s criticisms of the Governor have failed to gain much traction. A plurality of voters (49-43%) finds it unfair that Corzine attacks Christie for his loan to a former associate in the U.S. Attorney’s office. By a margin of 47-45% most feel unmerited criticism of Governor Corzine’s relationship with a former labor leader. There is an even 47-47% split meanwhile of those considering Christie’s attacks on the Governor’s failure to guard against New Jersey’s economic collapse to be warranted.
"Just about everyone has seen Gov. Jon Corzine's TV ads knocking Christopher Christie's ties to the Bush team, but most question whether it's a legitimate issue. “Unfair” they say…The Democratic attacks about Christie's loan to his former co-worker score a little higher. Christie gets a split on his ads criticizing Corzine for failing to protect New Jersey against the economic downturn." -- Maurice Carroll / Quinnipiac University Polling Institute Director
What is interesting when reviewing the figures released by both of these surveys is how they differ on topic of each candidate’s approval rating. The Rasmussen poll shows Governor Corzine with a 40% approval rating amongst New Jersey voters but Quinnipiac has his number considerably lower at 34%. The numbers for Christie meanwhile are nearly identical between the two polls but Rasmussen shows a decline in support for the Republican whereas Quinnipiac
No Republican has won a statewide race in New Jersey since 1997. The political climate in the Garden State favors a possible GOP takeover in 2010, but if in fact the numbers for Corzine closely mirror those found in the Rassmussen survey the possibility of a tight race heading into the homestretch could be likely. That said, with the incumbent Governor in all likelihood trailing and short on time to catch up the next batch of October polling could reveal the eventual winner in New Jersey.
Two surveys from Quinnipiac and Rasmussen describe a race from differing perspectives using similar numbers. The Quinnipiac poll for starters now has Republican challenger Chris Christie ahead of New Jersey Governor John Corzine 47-37% with independent Christopher Daggett pulling in nine-percent of likely voters. This points to the possibility of a failed attack ad campaign from the Governor and a widening race overall. Last month Christie’s lead over Corzine was pitted at a more modest six-point gap, 46-40%.
Rasmussen meanwhile has the spread at eight-percentage points with the challenger leading 46-38%, 6% for Daggett and one in ten New Jersey voters remaining undecided. As the race heads toward the home stretch it seems that voters are growing less certain of either candidate. Christie’s eight-point lead in the Rasmussen poll remains steady from a month ago, but both candidates have shown a drop of four-percentages points from a 50-42% race in August. Furthermore Rasmussen points to a gap that may in fact be closing in favor of Governor Corzine. When “leaners” are added to the mix Chris Christie’s lead is down to just four-points.
At 42% the Republican challenger has seen a six-point drop in the number of those with a favorable view of him. Governor Corzine meanwhile has jumped nearly ten-percentage points over the past month to a 45% favorable rating. Corzine’s unfavorables however remain considerably higher.
Moving our attention back to the Quinnipiac survey we see that while Governor Corzine does have improving numbers amongst Democratic voters the 74-15% split he has with his own party is far worse than the 86-8% support Christie receives from Republicans. While there is still the possibly for Corzine to cultivate grater support within his party it seems clear the independent vote is where he is losing this race. Christie’s lead amongst such voters is 46-30% over the Governor with 16% going to Daggett in a possible role of spoiler.
The launching of attack ads from Corzine-camp has proven to be relatively ineffective, just as Christie’s criticisms of the Governor have failed to gain much traction. A plurality of voters (49-43%) finds it unfair that Corzine attacks Christie for his loan to a former associate in the U.S. Attorney’s office. By a margin of 47-45% most feel unmerited criticism of Governor Corzine’s relationship with a former labor leader. There is an even 47-47% split meanwhile of those considering Christie’s attacks on the Governor’s failure to guard against New Jersey’s economic collapse to be warranted.
"Just about everyone has seen Gov. Jon Corzine's TV ads knocking Christopher Christie's ties to the Bush team, but most question whether it's a legitimate issue. “Unfair” they say…The Democratic attacks about Christie's loan to his former co-worker score a little higher. Christie gets a split on his ads criticizing Corzine for failing to protect New Jersey against the economic downturn." -- Maurice Carroll / Quinnipiac University Polling Institute Director
What is interesting when reviewing the figures released by both of these surveys is how they differ on topic of each candidate’s approval rating. The Rasmussen poll shows Governor Corzine with a 40% approval rating amongst New Jersey voters but Quinnipiac has his number considerably lower at 34%. The numbers for Christie meanwhile are nearly identical between the two polls but Rasmussen shows a decline in support for the Republican whereas Quinnipiac
No Republican has won a statewide race in New Jersey since 1997. The political climate in the Garden State favors a possible GOP takeover in 2010, but if in fact the numbers for Corzine closely mirror those found in the Rassmussen survey the possibility of a tight race heading into the homestretch could be likely. That said, with the incumbent Governor in all likelihood trailing and short on time to catch up the next batch of October polling could reveal the eventual winner in New Jersey.
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