For certain sports fans September is the most wonderful time of the year.
This weekend the college football season begins, followed quickly by the start of the 2009 NFL campaign. For baseball fans September also marks the stretch run where pennant races heat up and great divisional match ups are plentiful. Rasmussen Reports recently conducted some annual surveys on pro-football and baseball as we move closer to the fall.
Heading into the last month of the regular season the New York Yankees have eclipsed the Boston Red Sox as the team most baseball fans interview in this poll of 1,797 responders think will win the World Series. This represents a large shift from mid-July when the Bo Sox were the choice of 20% of MLB fans against just 11% for the Bronx Bombers. Now the two arch rivals are shown to have swapped positions. 25% of responders pick the Yankees to win the Fall Classic and confidence in Boston’s chances has dropped to 10%.
The Red Sox are in a distant second place three-way tie with the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals. The Phillies good play of late and addition of starter Cliff Lee has no doubt bolstered their chances in the court of public opinion as their percentage has increased two-points to 10% since mid-July. That’s also three percentage points better than the results gathered in a July Harris poll. Like Philadelphia the Cardinals enjoy a comfortable lead in their division and have been the National League’s hottest team over the past month. The Red Sox meanwhile linger 6.5 games behind a Yankees team who has posted baseball’s best record at 84-48. The Los Angeles Dodgers who have struggled since the All Star break have dropped to 9% in the poll.
In terms of confidence in their favorite team the Yankees also have baseball’s most optimistic fan base. 71% of Yankee fans think their team will win the World Series. Perhaps oddly 68% of Detroit Tigers fans, second most of any team, think their team will win it all in October. Only 4% of baseball fans league wide have confidence in the Tigers who never the less lead the mediocre American League Central division by 3.5 games. Majorities of Red Sox (58%) and Phillies fans (51%) have confidence in their team’s chances to take the crown. In spite of being in the heat of the NL Wild Card race just 7% of San Francisco fans meanwhile think their young Giants team can win the Series.
Shifting attention from the diamond to the gridiron NFL fans are split between reigning champion Pittsburgh and previously undefeated New England for who will win this season’s Super Bowl. Winners of two of the past four Lombardi Trophies the Steelers bring in 14% of football fans, whereas the Patriots no doubt benefiting from the return of star quarterback Tom Brady match that figure.
The tough NFC East features three teams garnering measurable confidence from observers. The 2007 Super Bowl champion New York Giants rank third in the survey overall with just over 8% of NFL followers thinking they can win their second title in three years. Perhaps do to their overall popularity the Dallas Cowboys also draw support from 8% of the football community. The Cowboys missed the playoffs last season and are without star receiver Terrell Owens for 2009. The Philadelphia Eagles meanwhile draw just 4% of those polled in spite of some big preseason expectations and the signing of QB Michael Vick.
2006 Super Bowl champion Indianapolis Colts rank fifth overall at 7%. Also now ahead of the Eagles are the Minnesota Vikings (5%) the team the Birds knocked off in the first round of last year’s playoffs and who have recently added future Hall of Fame QB Brett Favre. Last season the Arizona Cardinals nearly won the Super Bowl, but a 9-7 record didn’t instill much confidence that they can climb to the summit in 2009 as just 3% of football fans like their chances to win it all. In fact 82% of Cardinals fans think their team will take the title, the most optimistic lot in all of football meaning very few outside of the Arizona fan base give this team much of a chance.
In terms of fan base confidence, the Patriots and Steelers rank second and third with percentages of 79 and 77% respectively. The Giants and Cowboys also have very optimistic fan bases as 60% of each think their team will take the title. Lastly when asked the question of who NFL fans would like to see win the Super Bowl, the Pittsburgh Steelers were tops at 12%, followed by the Patriots and Cowboys at 10%, the Giants at 8% and 6% of football fans pulling for an Eagles or Colts victory.
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