Does having more self described moderates make for a more centrist America? It’s tough to tell really, but from analyzing some recent partisan trends the answer is probably “no”.
Rasmussen Reports updated their partisan trends for the recently completed month of August. In spite of a rough political month for President Obama the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats rebounded slightly with the percentage of Republicans suffering a small drop in turn. Currently 37.3% of the country are Democrats or leaning towards the Democratic Party and 32.6% of voters are self-described Republicans.
What is more interesting is the increase in unaffiliated voters. Now at 30.2% unaffiliateds are at their highest total in over two years, although as Rasmussen points out it is not unusual to see an increase in those not affiliating with either major party in off-election years such as 2009. Still unaffiliated Americans are currently a larger block of voters than in recent years overall. Since 2004 the unaffiliated average of 28.5% is noticeably lower than the 30.2% currently being measured. This would include three even-numbered election years and a little less than three total odd or off-election years.
The large block of unaffiliated voters is reflected in the increasingly negative views many Americans hold of the two major parties. A recent Pew Research poll of over 2,000 adults nationwide finds the favorable ratings for each party falling below 50%. The Democratic Party is currently at 49% with an unfavorable rating of 41%. Worse yet for the Dems, the number of Americans holding a “very” unfavorable view of the party outnumbers those who hold a very favorable by a margin of 16-12%.
The news is even worse for the GOP. Just 7% of Pew survey responders claimed to hold a very favorable opinion of the Republican Party against 18% who were very unfavorable. In total the overall GOP approval ratings hover at just 40% with 50% viewing the party negatively.
In spite of apparent dissatisfaction with the two major parties and with a large number of unaffiliated voters most Americans remain sharply divided ideologically speaking. Although white-Caucasians make up nearly two-thirds of the U.S. population very few occupy the middle ground or moderate range of their respective parties. According to a just released Gallup survey only 6% of racially white Americans are self-described conservative Democrats, with only 11% of white’s claiming to be liberal Republicans.
Conversely both parties are still composed largely of voters from their respective political extremes. White liberal Democrats are 25% of their party’s population with conservative Caucasian Republicans making up 23% of the GOP. In terms of demographics the wealthier and more educated a Democrat is the more they tend to be ideologically liberal. The correlation of the number of liberals in the Republican Party is a bit more statistically hazy. Like Democrats more Republicans claim to have a liberal political slant as you go higher in income levels, but in terms of education considerably more college graduates are liberal (12.3%) than those who hold post-graduate degrees (9.9%). This differs from trends in the Democratic Party.
In conclusion there appears to be much stability in terms of party affiliation and political ideology in spite of the historically low approval numbers both the Democratic and Republican Party’s are currently receiving. As mentioned previously conservatives outnumber liberals by a steady margin both in Pennsylvania and nationally and Democrats meanwhile are consistently more numerous than Republicans. It’s easy to argue that this helps to create a healthy sense of balance. However the balance that persists in American politics is weighed mostly by ideological weights on the far end of either side of the political see-saw not by stable forces joining in the middle.
Americans remain both relatively equal in numbers and divided in mindset.
Rasmussen Reports updated their partisan trends for the recently completed month of August. In spite of a rough political month for President Obama the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats rebounded slightly with the percentage of Republicans suffering a small drop in turn. Currently 37.3% of the country are Democrats or leaning towards the Democratic Party and 32.6% of voters are self-described Republicans.
What is more interesting is the increase in unaffiliated voters. Now at 30.2% unaffiliateds are at their highest total in over two years, although as Rasmussen points out it is not unusual to see an increase in those not affiliating with either major party in off-election years such as 2009. Still unaffiliated Americans are currently a larger block of voters than in recent years overall. Since 2004 the unaffiliated average of 28.5% is noticeably lower than the 30.2% currently being measured. This would include three even-numbered election years and a little less than three total odd or off-election years.
The large block of unaffiliated voters is reflected in the increasingly negative views many Americans hold of the two major parties. A recent Pew Research poll of over 2,000 adults nationwide finds the favorable ratings for each party falling below 50%. The Democratic Party is currently at 49% with an unfavorable rating of 41%. Worse yet for the Dems, the number of Americans holding a “very” unfavorable view of the party outnumbers those who hold a very favorable by a margin of 16-12%.
The news is even worse for the GOP. Just 7% of Pew survey responders claimed to hold a very favorable opinion of the Republican Party against 18% who were very unfavorable. In total the overall GOP approval ratings hover at just 40% with 50% viewing the party negatively.
In spite of apparent dissatisfaction with the two major parties and with a large number of unaffiliated voters most Americans remain sharply divided ideologically speaking. Although white-Caucasians make up nearly two-thirds of the U.S. population very few occupy the middle ground or moderate range of their respective parties. According to a just released Gallup survey only 6% of racially white Americans are self-described conservative Democrats, with only 11% of white’s claiming to be liberal Republicans.
Conversely both parties are still composed largely of voters from their respective political extremes. White liberal Democrats are 25% of their party’s population with conservative Caucasian Republicans making up 23% of the GOP. In terms of demographics the wealthier and more educated a Democrat is the more they tend to be ideologically liberal. The correlation of the number of liberals in the Republican Party is a bit more statistically hazy. Like Democrats more Republicans claim to have a liberal political slant as you go higher in income levels, but in terms of education considerably more college graduates are liberal (12.3%) than those who hold post-graduate degrees (9.9%). This differs from trends in the Democratic Party.
In conclusion there appears to be much stability in terms of party affiliation and political ideology in spite of the historically low approval numbers both the Democratic and Republican Party’s are currently receiving. As mentioned previously conservatives outnumber liberals by a steady margin both in Pennsylvania and nationally and Democrats meanwhile are consistently more numerous than Republicans. It’s easy to argue that this helps to create a healthy sense of balance. However the balance that persists in American politics is weighed mostly by ideological weights on the far end of either side of the political see-saw not by stable forces joining in the middle.
Americans remain both relatively equal in numbers and divided in mindset.
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