Just as they did two months ago the Franklin & Marshall survey provides a helpful guide to the latest social and political trends that help shape the opinions of Pennsylvanian voters. The latest results that can be viewed here in full track the progress of several important and interesting topics while tracking shifts in public opinion since June. Below is a list of some of the poll highlights and key findings from this most recent release.
1) Pennsylvanians hold increasingly negative views on direction of state
The current economy and state budget impasse has no doubt taken a toll on the perceptions of Pennsylvanians since June. Only 33% of residents now think the Keystone is headed in the right direction. This marks a staggering eleven-point drop from June and is the worst total since March of 2004. Correspondingly there has been an 11% jump in the number of Pennsylvanians who think their state is off on the wrong the track. At 59% this is the highest number ever recorded by the Franklin & MarshallI survey dating back to the spring of 1995.
2) Majority of Pennsylvanians the same financially as a year ago, but many more worse off than better off
Showing an increase from June but closely mirroring the results from a March poll 52% if Pennsylvanian adults say their family’s financial situation is about the same from this time a year ago. 39% however say they are worse off against just 9% who claim to be better off. The 9% figure in particular is the lowest total ever recorded by this survey. Yet many Pennsylvanians still hold a positive views of their family fortunes looking ahead a year from now. 31% expect to be better off against just 19% who think they’ll be worse off. Nearly half (47%) expect their financial situation to remain about the same.
3) Amid budget crisis, Governor Rendell’s approval rating drops to new low
For the first time since being elected Ed Rendell has seen his favorable ratings slip to the point where more Pennsylvanians now disapprove than approve of the Governor. That might be putting it nicely. Rendell’s favorables have dropped ten-points to 32% in two months and his unfavorable rating at 53% means there is now a huge gap of twenty-one percentage points separating the positive from negative. In June the Pennsylvania Governor still have a 42-40% positive split in favorability according to the Franklin & Marshall survey.
4) Many blame State Legislature for budget woes, lack trust and confidence in body overall
While Governor Rendell has been hit hard by Pennsylvania’s budget crisis he is hardly alone in shouldering the blame from voters. When asked who is more to blame for a budget not having been passed on time 31% blame the Governor but 54% accuse the State Legislature of dragging their collective feet. Pennsylvanians do have more trust in the Legislature than the Governor (48-36%) in handling the budget, but their favorable ratings are even lower than that of Rendell overall. When asked what kind of job the Legislature is doing 58% suggested only a fair performance, more (20%) suggested they were doing a poor job than good (18%). Zero percent meanwhile said they were doing an “excellent” job.
5) President Obama still viewed favorably in Pennsylvania but his negatives are climbing
Barack Obama won Pennsylvania by ten and a half percentage points in the last election and while his in-state approval in the mid-50s remains steady over the past six months the number of those with an unfavorable view of the President is also climbing. With an increase of ten percentage points since June and sixteen from a March survey 37% of Pennsylvanians now view Obama unfavorably. The number of those undecided is down to 7% and the President's net approval stands at eighteen-points in the Keystone State.
6) Specter still having problems in Pennsylvania but he’s ahead of Toomey, Sestak
Arlen Specter pushes ahead with his bid to retain a Senate seat this fall. From party switches to hostile town-hall meetings its been a quite a year so far for the veteran politician. Specter is still fighting an uphill battle in the war of perception with Pennsylvania voters. His favorable to unfavorable ratings are at 35-42%, virtually unchanged from two months ago. Specter is still the odds on favorite to best Joe Sestak in this year’s primary leading him by 26% although 46% remain undecided. The Senator is also doing fairly well in hypothetical match ups against Republican nominee Pat Toomey. Currently Specter’s lead is 37-29% with 25% undecided, an improvement from June.
7) Pennsylvanians still have lukewarm attitudes towards health care reform
51% of Pennsylvanians are opposed to the health care proposals being discussed by congress against just 34% in favor. This is a wider gap that what we have seen coming from national figures and points to an increasingly difficult sell for Obama and Democrats in what is a key battleground state. 57% of adults also suggest that the concerns expressed by those in opposition of healthcare reform at town hall meetings represent their feelings at least in part. A majority of Pennsylvanians (57%) also do not think President Obama can reform our country’s health care system and a plurality (48%) do not think reform will improve the country’s economic situation in the long run.
8) Most Pennsylvanian’s show displeasure with the quality of their government
Just over a quarter (27%) of Pennsylvanians are satisfied with the quality of their state government, and virtually no one (1%) thinks their politicians are doing an excellent job overall. 18% of Keystone State adults think their leaders are doing a poor job with a majority (54%) giving them only fair marks in Pennsylvania. Not surprisingly most want to see members of the state House or representatives not reelected in the next election. While the 52-29% gap is a large one a similarly large disparity persists when asking individuals if they would like to see their own state representative reelected. 46% seem happy with their local politicians against 29% who do not.
9) More Democrats than Republicans in Pennsylvania but conservatives widen lead over self-described liberals
Pennsylvania registration figures show considerably more Democrats than Republicans but in terms of ideology and self-identification the gap is shrinking. The latest Franklin & Marshall poll shows a 47-41-8% breakdown of Democrats versus Republicans and independents. August was a good month for conservatives meanwhile. The 43% figure represents the highest total of conservatives in Pennsylvania since at least 1999 when the topic was first polled. Liberals on the other hand shrunk to 16% tied for their second worst showing of the decade. In the last five years liberals have averaged 18.3% to 35.3% for conservatives and 41.2% for moderates.
10) Pennsylvanians views on abortion and religion remain relatively consistent
The percentage of Pennsylvanians who believe abortion should be legal under certain or all circumstances remains consistent from recent surveys. Three-quarters (75%) share this view with a slight bump in the number of those wanting it legal under any circumstance (21% from 18%) and a minor decrease in those who want it legal in certain instances (54% from 58%). The latest survey also shows a small bump from 25% to 32% in the number of those taken the Bible’s scriptures literally but an eight-point decrease in the number who treat it more as an allegory. The number of those who consider the book a collection of fables, legends and moral precepts remains steady from June at 17%.
1) Pennsylvanians hold increasingly negative views on direction of state
The current economy and state budget impasse has no doubt taken a toll on the perceptions of Pennsylvanians since June. Only 33% of residents now think the Keystone is headed in the right direction. This marks a staggering eleven-point drop from June and is the worst total since March of 2004. Correspondingly there has been an 11% jump in the number of Pennsylvanians who think their state is off on the wrong the track. At 59% this is the highest number ever recorded by the Franklin & MarshallI survey dating back to the spring of 1995.
2) Majority of Pennsylvanians the same financially as a year ago, but many more worse off than better off
Showing an increase from June but closely mirroring the results from a March poll 52% if Pennsylvanian adults say their family’s financial situation is about the same from this time a year ago. 39% however say they are worse off against just 9% who claim to be better off. The 9% figure in particular is the lowest total ever recorded by this survey. Yet many Pennsylvanians still hold a positive views of their family fortunes looking ahead a year from now. 31% expect to be better off against just 19% who think they’ll be worse off. Nearly half (47%) expect their financial situation to remain about the same.
3) Amid budget crisis, Governor Rendell’s approval rating drops to new low
For the first time since being elected Ed Rendell has seen his favorable ratings slip to the point where more Pennsylvanians now disapprove than approve of the Governor. That might be putting it nicely. Rendell’s favorables have dropped ten-points to 32% in two months and his unfavorable rating at 53% means there is now a huge gap of twenty-one percentage points separating the positive from negative. In June the Pennsylvania Governor still have a 42-40% positive split in favorability according to the Franklin & Marshall survey.
4) Many blame State Legislature for budget woes, lack trust and confidence in body overall
While Governor Rendell has been hit hard by Pennsylvania’s budget crisis he is hardly alone in shouldering the blame from voters. When asked who is more to blame for a budget not having been passed on time 31% blame the Governor but 54% accuse the State Legislature of dragging their collective feet. Pennsylvanians do have more trust in the Legislature than the Governor (48-36%) in handling the budget, but their favorable ratings are even lower than that of Rendell overall. When asked what kind of job the Legislature is doing 58% suggested only a fair performance, more (20%) suggested they were doing a poor job than good (18%). Zero percent meanwhile said they were doing an “excellent” job.
5) President Obama still viewed favorably in Pennsylvania but his negatives are climbing
Barack Obama won Pennsylvania by ten and a half percentage points in the last election and while his in-state approval in the mid-50s remains steady over the past six months the number of those with an unfavorable view of the President is also climbing. With an increase of ten percentage points since June and sixteen from a March survey 37% of Pennsylvanians now view Obama unfavorably. The number of those undecided is down to 7% and the President's net approval stands at eighteen-points in the Keystone State.
6) Specter still having problems in Pennsylvania but he’s ahead of Toomey, Sestak
Arlen Specter pushes ahead with his bid to retain a Senate seat this fall. From party switches to hostile town-hall meetings its been a quite a year so far for the veteran politician. Specter is still fighting an uphill battle in the war of perception with Pennsylvania voters. His favorable to unfavorable ratings are at 35-42%, virtually unchanged from two months ago. Specter is still the odds on favorite to best Joe Sestak in this year’s primary leading him by 26% although 46% remain undecided. The Senator is also doing fairly well in hypothetical match ups against Republican nominee Pat Toomey. Currently Specter’s lead is 37-29% with 25% undecided, an improvement from June.
7) Pennsylvanians still have lukewarm attitudes towards health care reform
51% of Pennsylvanians are opposed to the health care proposals being discussed by congress against just 34% in favor. This is a wider gap that what we have seen coming from national figures and points to an increasingly difficult sell for Obama and Democrats in what is a key battleground state. 57% of adults also suggest that the concerns expressed by those in opposition of healthcare reform at town hall meetings represent their feelings at least in part. A majority of Pennsylvanians (57%) also do not think President Obama can reform our country’s health care system and a plurality (48%) do not think reform will improve the country’s economic situation in the long run.
8) Most Pennsylvanian’s show displeasure with the quality of their government
Just over a quarter (27%) of Pennsylvanians are satisfied with the quality of their state government, and virtually no one (1%) thinks their politicians are doing an excellent job overall. 18% of Keystone State adults think their leaders are doing a poor job with a majority (54%) giving them only fair marks in Pennsylvania. Not surprisingly most want to see members of the state House or representatives not reelected in the next election. While the 52-29% gap is a large one a similarly large disparity persists when asking individuals if they would like to see their own state representative reelected. 46% seem happy with their local politicians against 29% who do not.
9) More Democrats than Republicans in Pennsylvania but conservatives widen lead over self-described liberals
Pennsylvania registration figures show considerably more Democrats than Republicans but in terms of ideology and self-identification the gap is shrinking. The latest Franklin & Marshall poll shows a 47-41-8% breakdown of Democrats versus Republicans and independents. August was a good month for conservatives meanwhile. The 43% figure represents the highest total of conservatives in Pennsylvania since at least 1999 when the topic was first polled. Liberals on the other hand shrunk to 16% tied for their second worst showing of the decade. In the last five years liberals have averaged 18.3% to 35.3% for conservatives and 41.2% for moderates.
10) Pennsylvanians views on abortion and religion remain relatively consistent
The percentage of Pennsylvanians who believe abortion should be legal under certain or all circumstances remains consistent from recent surveys. Three-quarters (75%) share this view with a slight bump in the number of those wanting it legal under any circumstance (21% from 18%) and a minor decrease in those who want it legal in certain instances (54% from 58%). The latest survey also shows a small bump from 25% to 32% in the number of those taken the Bible’s scriptures literally but an eight-point decrease in the number who treat it more as an allegory. The number of those who consider the book a collection of fables, legends and moral precepts remains steady from June at 17%.
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