In such a volatile political climate where the pressures from a struggling economy and fractured electorate put even popular elected officials to the test, Jon Corzine is forced to come from behind as sitting Governor of New Jersey.
Corzine is no stranger to digging out of deep political holes. Upon the retirement of Democratic Senator Frank Lautenberg Corzine ran for the open seat in 2000. According to polls he was trailing by as much as thirty percentage points in the race before pulling out a 50-47% victory over Republican Bob Franks.
Considered by many as one of the most liberal U.S. Senators Corzine, while in office, pushed for universal health care coverage, gun registration laws, same-sex marriage and affirmative action policies. In fact the National Journal in 2004 ranked him as being the fourth most liberal Senator, slightly to the left of Ted Kennedy (D-Ma).
Yet it has been anything but smooth sailing for Corzine since moving into the Governor’s mansion in New Jersey. He entered office in the wake of a state shutdown and his approval ratings sagged as a result. By early 2007 the Governor had rebounded considerably with a 50-34% approval to disapproval rating spread according Quinnipiac. His controversial state budget decrease plans however were met with opposition sending his numbers back down to 40%.
Then in April of 2007 Corzine was involved in a near fatal automobile accident. Breaking several bones and receiving lacerations Corzine, not wearing a seat belt, was initially in critical condition being flown to a New Jersey hospital with the state trooper who was driving the vehicle. Both have since recovered, but the lingering question now is to whether Corzine’s political career can do the same.
As recently as late May a Rasmussen poll showed Corzine trailing upstart Republican prosecutor Chris Christie by an alarming 47-38% margin. “Big Boy” Christie’s ascension in New Jersey politics is particularly impressive when considering the Garden State’s considerable lean to the political left on most issues and in their relationship with candidates. Still the GOP is battling against history. Christy Todd Whitman was the last Republican elected to a statewide office some twelve years ago.
But where did things go wrong for Jon Corzine? He came into politics with a boat load of cash on hand and was referred to as one of the most notable Senate additions after winning his seat in November of 2000.
Corzine is a spender, using over $100 million in his Senate and Governor campaigns. Arguing against high property taxes and linking his 2005 opponent Doug Forrester to Bush administration policies Corzine was successful in his bid for Governor by a 54-43% margin. He is also a proactive Governor and has familiarity on nationwide issues sponsoring 145-bills and co-sponsoring 1,014 white a Senator. Attacking Christie on social issues is perhaps the key to a Corzine comeback. A recent Fairleigh Dickinson poll suggested that doing both has helped close the gap to six points with Christie’s lead, if largely accurate, down to a more manageable 45-39%.
Additionally the Corzine camp is stepping up attacks on Christie’s prosecutorial record. Nate Silver of Fiverthirtyeight.com comments;
Christie’s past boss in the Justice Department, former Attorney General John
Ashcroft, reaped $28-52 million from a Christie-awarded contract to monitor a
company that had been accused of paying kickbacks to doctors. Christie also
awarded another contract to David M. Kelley who had decided not to prosecute
Chris Christie’s brother, Todd Christie, in a stock fraud case while serving as
U.S. Attorney in Manhattan. These contracts are no-bid contracts and are awarded
exclusively on the discretion of the U.S. Attorney, i.e. Chris Christie. – Nate
Silver / Fivethirtyeight.com
Farleigh Dickinson poll director Peter Woolley considers it “remarkable that a Republican is running ahead in New Jersey” but still notes that it’s early in the campaign season. The poll finds that 15% of voters remained undecided. Considering the state’s left-leaning electorate this could spell trouble for Christie as many late and disenchanted voters could break for Corzine. Still it’s unimaginable that the Governor is in a competitive race considering his favorable ratings rest at a paltry 31% with just 21% of New Jersey poll responders considered their state to be on the “right track”.
Corzine needs to rebound with Democrats who have shown him lukewarm support in this poll. Just 66% support the Governor in this race and his overall favorable-unfavorable rating in the party is an alarming 48-37%. By contrast President Barack Obama has the support of 86% of New Jersey Democrats, and not surprisingly the politically savvy Corzine is planning a rally with President Obama on July 16th.
While coming in behind of Christie on polling of important issues, Corzine’s ace in the hole might be the experience factor. When asked the question of which candidate “has the background and experience to be a good governor”, Corzine outdoes his Republican adversary 42-29%. Although the question of whether both candidates have the necessary background and experience to handle the job apparently was not asked.
It would take quite the magic trick for Corzine to lift his approval ratings up to the standard of a typical incumbent Governor poised for election victory. That isn’t to suggest however that there are no rabbits left in his hat. New Jersey voters are increasingly showing they need a reason to vote Republican. In an election match up that features two tarnished and/or fairly unpopular candidates the default voting position most often sides with the Democrat.
Jon Corzine’s fate may rest with the success and failure of the economy. His approval ratings over the past two years rise and fall with the percentage of New Jersey voters who feel their state is headed in the right direction. Corzine has hitched his wagon to the "Obama Express", another politician in a heated battle for the hearts and minds of voters. Polling suggests the Governor needs to keep chipping away at the Christie lead by securing more faith in fellow Democrats. Stay tuned for another round of numbers next month to see if Corzine is indeed making a resurgence.
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