Read Story HereA host of new polling data compliments of Quinnipiac University paints an interesting picture on the topic of the GOP's standing with the Hispanic community.
While high court partisan drama is a typically part of the political process, the Sonia Sotomayor nomination is being treated as something more than the standard party and presidential barometer. President Obama's desire to place the first Hispanic judge on the Supreme Court is notable in a history making sense just as it seems noticeable in subtle demographic positioning. Many pundits have suggested that attacks levied by the GOP could further erode the party's support with the key group of Hispanic voters.
Not a rosy outlook to be certain for a party in need of win. The question is now whether the facts back up the gossip. According to at least one polling outlet the answer is probably no.
Respected pollsters like Quinnipiac, Gallup, Associated Press and USA Today amongst others have Judge Sotomayor's approvals pegged in the mid to upper-50 percentiles. But it's a deeper look into the Quinnipiac numbers in particular that could spell some measure of relief for the Republican Party. According to a recent poll Sotomayor's overall approval of 55% is, surely to the surprise of many, just three percentage points lower than her support within the Hispanic community.
The poll finds that sub-groupings such as African-Americans (85%) and women overall (60%) rate the judge higher than her own ethnic community. Data such as this hints at the possibility that the GOP may not be risking as much with a full out attack on President Obama's nominee as previously believed.
Of course a swift confirmation process is a political victory for any President, but placing Sotomayor on the bench may not have the sort of positive residual effects many Democrats may have been searching for. One particularly interesting poll question by Quinnipiac to its nearly 3,100 responders asked whether it be important for the body of the Supreme Court to “better reflect” that of the country as a whole. This question was in terms of race, ethnicity, gender and religion as compared to a judge's legal qualifications. Only 8% found it to be a more important aspect to the makeup of the bench against 57% who found it less important than individual merit. Nearly a one to seven ratio.
Such findings go hand in hand with the concept that racial biases for and against candidates of high positions in government are, quite possibly, beginning to fade in terms of relevance. Its worth mentioning that Sotomayor enjoys nearly identical support at this point in her confirmation process as that of the average combined ratings of the last four confirmed Supreme Court nominees; Clarence Thomas, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, John Roberts and Samuel Alito.
Perhaps as the Huffington Post points out, Sotomayor's clout and vulnerabilities as a candidate rest much more so in her political ideology than her ethnicity. Hispanics as a whole lean towards the Democratic Party but it's questionable to what extent they are liberal socially.
Still it remains unsurprising that the Hispanic/Latino block of voters is so targeted. Major net gains by either party with this ever-growing group in the future could go a long way in deciding elections. That a popular Hispanic judge makes history by getting named to the Supreme Court however brings into question whether the political needle shifts anymore to the left.
Latino's at present make up roughly 9% of the voting pool. It's obvious that Republicans still reeling from crushing defeats in November and the 2006 congressional elections have lost considerable support with that group. Barack Obama won 67% of the Latino vote in 2008 up fourteen points from John Kerry's showing as the Democratic Presidential nominee four years earlier.
President Obama netted somewhere between 1.5 - 2 percentage points nationally from that increase in Latino support alone. Had Kerry done as well with Latino’s as Obama he may have been elected President. Such a swing is perhaps critical to the Democrats chances of winning not only close future elections on a national level but also within key swing-states.
Here in Pennsylvania President Obama by a margin of 72-28% took Latino vote in the last election. The Keystone State still garners battleground status in elections. With its relatively small number of Latinos however there may not be much more ground the Democrats can pick up. Ditto similarly important swing-states such as Ohio and Virginia where the figures for Latino voters do not top 5%.
All eyes then focus on Florida and the Sunbelt region where the GOP lost considerable ground in 2008. The more modest 57-42% margin of victory for Obama in Florida amongst a large number (14%) of Latino voters could keep the Sunshine State in the blue column for years to come. This in the event of an increase of Democratic support within the Hispanics community. The President's overall margin of victory here was by less than three-points, but the latest poll numbers involving Judge Sotomayor do not point towards a bump for the Dems in Florida or much of anywhere else.
Sonia Sotomayor has an opportunity to make history. But whether she will change the future in a positive way for Hispanics in the Democratic Party is highly questionable.
While high court partisan drama is a typically part of the political process, the Sonia Sotomayor nomination is being treated as something more than the standard party and presidential barometer. President Obama's desire to place the first Hispanic judge on the Supreme Court is notable in a history making sense just as it seems noticeable in subtle demographic positioning. Many pundits have suggested that attacks levied by the GOP could further erode the party's support with the key group of Hispanic voters.
Not a rosy outlook to be certain for a party in need of win. The question is now whether the facts back up the gossip. According to at least one polling outlet the answer is probably no.
Respected pollsters like Quinnipiac, Gallup, Associated Press and USA Today amongst others have Judge Sotomayor's approvals pegged in the mid to upper-50 percentiles. But it's a deeper look into the Quinnipiac numbers in particular that could spell some measure of relief for the Republican Party. According to a recent poll Sotomayor's overall approval of 55% is, surely to the surprise of many, just three percentage points lower than her support within the Hispanic community.
The poll finds that sub-groupings such as African-Americans (85%) and women overall (60%) rate the judge higher than her own ethnic community. Data such as this hints at the possibility that the GOP may not be risking as much with a full out attack on President Obama's nominee as previously believed.
Of course a swift confirmation process is a political victory for any President, but placing Sotomayor on the bench may not have the sort of positive residual effects many Democrats may have been searching for. One particularly interesting poll question by Quinnipiac to its nearly 3,100 responders asked whether it be important for the body of the Supreme Court to “better reflect” that of the country as a whole. This question was in terms of race, ethnicity, gender and religion as compared to a judge's legal qualifications. Only 8% found it to be a more important aspect to the makeup of the bench against 57% who found it less important than individual merit. Nearly a one to seven ratio.
Such findings go hand in hand with the concept that racial biases for and against candidates of high positions in government are, quite possibly, beginning to fade in terms of relevance. Its worth mentioning that Sotomayor enjoys nearly identical support at this point in her confirmation process as that of the average combined ratings of the last four confirmed Supreme Court nominees; Clarence Thomas, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, John Roberts and Samuel Alito.
Perhaps as the Huffington Post points out, Sotomayor's clout and vulnerabilities as a candidate rest much more so in her political ideology than her ethnicity. Hispanics as a whole lean towards the Democratic Party but it's questionable to what extent they are liberal socially.
When asked whether Sotomayor "is more liberal than you would like" for a Supreme
Court justice, a quarter of Hispanic respondents responded, "yes." Only 11% said
that Sotomayor is "not liberal enough," while 46% said that her position on the
political spectrum is "about right." - Sam Stein / Huffington Post
Still it remains unsurprising that the Hispanic/Latino block of voters is so targeted. Major net gains by either party with this ever-growing group in the future could go a long way in deciding elections. That a popular Hispanic judge makes history by getting named to the Supreme Court however brings into question whether the political needle shifts anymore to the left.
Latino's at present make up roughly 9% of the voting pool. It's obvious that Republicans still reeling from crushing defeats in November and the 2006 congressional elections have lost considerable support with that group. Barack Obama won 67% of the Latino vote in 2008 up fourteen points from John Kerry's showing as the Democratic Presidential nominee four years earlier.
President Obama netted somewhere between 1.5 - 2 percentage points nationally from that increase in Latino support alone. Had Kerry done as well with Latino’s as Obama he may have been elected President. Such a swing is perhaps critical to the Democrats chances of winning not only close future elections on a national level but also within key swing-states.
Here in Pennsylvania President Obama by a margin of 72-28% took Latino vote in the last election. The Keystone State still garners battleground status in elections. With its relatively small number of Latinos however there may not be much more ground the Democrats can pick up. Ditto similarly important swing-states such as Ohio and Virginia where the figures for Latino voters do not top 5%.
All eyes then focus on Florida and the Sunbelt region where the GOP lost considerable ground in 2008. The more modest 57-42% margin of victory for Obama in Florida amongst a large number (14%) of Latino voters could keep the Sunshine State in the blue column for years to come. This in the event of an increase of Democratic support within the Hispanics community. The President's overall margin of victory here was by less than three-points, but the latest poll numbers involving Judge Sotomayor do not point towards a bump for the Dems in Florida or much of anywhere else.
Sonia Sotomayor has an opportunity to make history. But whether she will change the future in a positive way for Hispanics in the Democratic Party is highly questionable.
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