Polling health care reform - a dodgy proposition

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Earlier this month when 800 registered voters were asked the question of whether they’d support or oppose enacting a major overhaul of the U.S. health care system, by a margin of 62-28% the answer was a resounding yes.

Those were the results from a recent Diageo/Hotline poll, and they are positioned quite nicely for those proponents of full-scale heath care reform. Of those “yes” responses an additional 94% feel it is at least “somewhat” important that the government pass major reform legislation before the end of this year. Numbers such as these seem to point to an ever-growing majority of American voters who are seeking a change in our culture of medical care.

Now what exactly do these numbers mean, and how much stock should we place on polling an issue such as health care? An issue with complexities and variables that beg of thoughtful discussion over a series of often narrow and tapered questions.

Major policy initiatives often sink or swim based on public perception. There is yet another culture war brewing and both sides are gearing up their data and rhetoric for battle. So far it is the Obama administration that appears to have the upper hand. Never mind the President’s built-in advantages compliments of a sweeping November mandate and control of congress. Health care reform is a fight for the hearts and minds of the American people.

Charismatic leader of the free world in public but a shrewd pragmatist behind closed doors, President Obama knows as well as anyone when gains with the electorate are available for the taking. Looking further down the list of questions from this Diageo/Hotline poll we find some other interesting results. By a margin of 65-21% responders said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate in the 2010 midterms who supported health care cost controlling legislation.

More illuminating still was a question asking whether you would support taxing benefits in order to pay for the cost of expanding coverage. 68% were opposed to such a measure. President Obama recently backed off a campaign promise to tax such benefits received from health insurance plans. Could the overwhelming majority of the public siding against such a proposal be reason for the President’s switch? Don't bet against it.

The heated discussion involving health care reform is of particular importance to many Pennsylvanians. A week and a half ago KYW 1060’s Steve Tawa reported on Senator Bob Casey in a roundtable discussion at the College of Physicians in Philadelphia. The Democratic Senator is heeding President Obama’s concern on the issue. Casey commented that he was “alarmed” at findings from a recent Families USA survey that claimed 27.3% of Pennsylvanians under the age of 65 are uninsured.

Rallies orchestrated in the Philadelphia area by organizations such as Health Care for All Philadelphia stress the importance of the issue. Like many others their push is for a “privately financed, single payer health insurance plan.” Health Care for All Philadelphia supports the Family and Business Health Security Act (HB 1660 and SB 400) while claiming that all other bills and measures have served as little more than a band aid on failed insurance system.

Still there are many not onboard with the rallying cries. Leading voices from the political right are looking to strengthen the Republican Party’s position against Obama’s big government practices by offering a dose of straight talk. 990AM conservative columnist Wayne Winegarden acknowledged that while the state of health care is of concern, the Obama plan is not a solution. In addition to criticizing the President’s plan for tax increases Winegarden states that “the experience of countries with single payer systems is not encouraging. Health care costs are contained under single payer systems only by compromising the quality of health care services, denying patients the services they need or want, and forcing patients to endure possibly life threatening lines and delays.”

But it’s the American Medical Association, quarter of a million members strong, that is perhaps best positioned for a fight. Columnist Robert Pear of the New York Times wrote that the A.M.A. has made general statements in the past of how health care ought to be provided through private markets as they are currently. He elaborates on the far more pointed attacks the association is levying against the Obama plan of late however. “The A.M.A. does not believe that creating a public health insurance option for non-disabled individuals under age 65 is the best way to expand health insurance coverage and lower costs. The introduction of a new public plan threatens to restrict patient choice by driving out private insurers, which currently provide coverage for nearly 70% of Americans.”

Siding with both views are the results from a nearly three-month old CNN poll reviewed by their Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser. More than 80% of the 1,019 polled claimed to be satisfied with the quality of health care they receive and three-quarters are happy with their overall coverage. However, when asked about the cost of health care more than 75% say they are dissatisfied.

When Americans say they support health care reform, that doesn't mean they want
to lose their own coverage or give up their own doctor. That's something that
the Clinton White House didn't realize in 1993. – CNN Polling Director / Keating
Holland

Herein lie the complexities of polling on an issue such as health care reform. Pollsters like Diageo/Hotline while responsible in their presentation fall short of capturing the full scope of positions and range of opinions regarding this hot-buttoned issue. What side of the fence does public opinion sit on regarding health care reform? The answer is subject to change depending on who is asking the questions and which side is winning the PR war.