Thursday, July 16, 2009

Poll: Obama approval tied to stimulus, economic outlook

READ STORY HERE
President Obama and Congressional Democrats' economic stimulus package is arguably the “New Deal” of the 21st century. Both ambitious and controversial the plan continues to generate passionate debate from wildly opposing view points on the social and political spectrum.
A new CBS poll indicates that while support for the stimulus may have slipped over time as our country continues to struggle out of its economic rut, the package is still viewed positively by a majority of Americans. The poll oddity here is the weight given to independents. 39.6% of the responders claimed to be independent, a figure that is much higher than national registration totals would suggest. However the gap between Democrats and Republicans surveyed by the poll is just over 6%, reflecting a fairly accurate depiction. Recent partisan samples from Rasmussen Reports find Democrats with an advantage of slightly under 7% for instance.
Taking our queue from this particular CBS poll support for the stimulus package seems tied to the view that voters hold of President Obama’s overall job performance. Both have slipped in recent weeks but continue to win over a majority of Americans. Solid economic news from the past couple of days could inspire more confidence in the effectiveness of both, although persistently strong data has proven fleeting thus far in 2009. Simply put, the source of falling support for Obama and the stimulus can be summed up by the saying, “it’s the economy, stupid!”
The CBS poll finds a 48-44% approval to disapproval split in terms of how President Obama is handling the economy. The four-point margin is down from a substantial 22-point divide from just last month. 57% of Americans now approve of Obama’s job performance. While that is down six points after a rocky month of June the decline in support comes from Democrats and independents, not Republicans. An additional 50% expect at least two more years of recession meanwhile. Democratic support for the President has dipped from 92% to 82% over the last month. It seems quite plausible however that a number of disenfranchised Dems may get back on the Obama-Express if and when Judge Sotomayor is confirmed to the Supreme Court.



Independents meanwhile have too shown a considerable drop in support from 58% in early-June to 50% in July. Republican support however is actually up seven-points to 30%. Although the vast majority of Republicans are critical of Obama’s economic policies, he scores considerably better with the GOP in terms of foreign policy and image. 38% of Republicans actually believe the image of the U.S. has improved under the Obama Presidency against just 25% who think it has gotten worse. Solid numbers from the opposition party especially considering how low George W. Bush scored with Democrats when asked the same question.
Cashing in with lukewarm independents, reviving the faith in Democrats and holding steady the support of GOP voters could go a long way in sowing up victories for Democratic proposals and the impending 2010 midterm elections.
One major negative in the continuing PR fight by the Obama Administration is the current pessimism held by Americans. Just 21% think the economy is getting better against 33% who say it is getting worse. That’s down from a positive 27-25% split in June. Still there is faith in the economic stimulus package as the President continues to preach to citizens of its long term impact on growth. In the long run 42% of those polled think the stimulus will render the economy better against 29% who think it will have no impact.
While various polls show that few agree with Oval Office getting to write a blank check, a majority (51%) want the government to have more control of the U.S. financial system. In terms of stimulus’ impact on the federal deficit six in ten would prefer to focus on debt reduction over government spending. By better than a two-to-one ratio however Americans are in favor of short-terms deficit increases to make room for the package.
President Obama has hitched his wagon to the economic stimulus and the numbers reflect that. The fate of his administration and Democrats in general may very well rest in its measurable success or failure over the next sixteen months.

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