"Tipping Point" for same-sex marriage in Pennsylvania?

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Just a few years ago legislation in support of same-sex marriage seemed doomed.

While any number of progressive issues have found traction in the mainstream it seemed that a fairly consistent number of Americans were comfortable on their views of gay marriage. Resisting any sort of statute in favor of granting same sex partners the same marriage rights as straight couple was not an issue of segregation but sensibility.

The world is moving quickly however and times have changed. The view many Americans have on such issues is changing as well.

Will Bunch of the Philadelphia Daily News in an article last month discussed that while the issue of same-sex marriage has gained traction in states as diverse as Massachusetts and Michigan to Iowa, Pennsylvanian’s seem to be “resisting the tide”. Conservative politics still hold rank in much of Pennsylvania even as the state has now voted against the GOP candidate in the last five Presidential elections and currently has a two-term Democratic Governor captaining the legislative ship.

“Clearly, Pennsylvania is among Alabama and Mississippi in terms of gay rights,” said Malcolm Lazin, the executive director of the Equality Forum, the gay-rights-advocacy group based in Philadelphia. However any dour assessment Lazin and other gay-rights advocates have in their current assessment of the Keystone State seems tempered by their anticipation that laws granting same-sex couple equal rights will come to pass before long.

The highly controversial "Proposition Eight" overturn in California was something of a consolation prize for conservative groups, a largely bewildered coalition last election day. A month ago California’s popularly voted ban on same-sex marriage was upheld buy the state’s high court in a 6-1 decision. It seems that more states are likely to have the issue come front and center in the years to come.

Six states have legalized gay marriage already. Not surprisingly it has been typically liberal blue states such as Massachusetts, Vermont, Connecticut, Maine and the District of Columbia who have already passed legislation. New Hampshire and especially Iowa however show that more politically competitive and middle of the road states can be taken up by the issue. Pennsylvania neighbors such as New Jersey and New York could too be added to this before long as well as New Mexico.

So why is Pennsylvania lagging behind?

Bunch with assistance from political experts points out that certain factors have made Pa. more resistant to same-sex marriage.

The Keystone State is one of the oldest in the country in terms of average age and its population of seniors. Gay rights meanwhile is an issue that resonates much more so with younger, under-40 voters. Pennsylvania has a large Catholic population to boot and has many of its electoral districts in the central and northern areas of the state under the purview of conservative voters and politicians. Racially speaking Pennsylvania has a high number of African-Americans who tend to vote against same-sex legislation and a relatively low number of Hispanics who seem more sensitive toward the issue.

The most recent public-opinion survey, from Muhlenberg College and the Allentown
Morning Call, published earlier this month, showed that backing for gay marriage
in the Keystone State increased from a paltry 35 percent in 2004 to 42 percent.
The public is now split down the middle on a statewide constitutional amendment
to ban gay marriage, which remains a leading agenda item for conservative
lawmakers. – Will Bunch / Philadelphia Daily News

Still Jeff Lax and Justin Phillips of Columbia University place Pennsylvania well above average in its acceptance to both same-sex marriage and many other gay rights issues. Using polling, statistical analysis and ranking several factors Phillips and Lax rank Pa. seventeenth out of fifty states. Such findings seem to contradict Malcom Lazin comparisons to Mississippi and Alabama who rank 49th and last respectively on the list with support in the low twenty percentiles.

Nationwide CBS/New York Times have done some recent polling on the issue over the past few months. While their numbers curiously bounce around a tad from one poll to the next the overall averages from three surveys taken since mid-March provide some interesting data. 36% of the polls 895-responders preferred same-sex marriage to be legal, 31% preferred no legal recognition, with a significant middle ground of 27% in favor of Civil Unions. Broken down by party, 48% of Democrats favored same-sex marriage with just 23% disapproving. The numbers for Republicans were 52-12% against, but this issue has clearly gained traction with Independents who favor it by a 38-29% margin. This numbers show a huge increase from polls taken shortly after the election of 2004 when only 21% of responders nationwide favored same-sex marriage to 44% who opposed it.

Governor Ed Rendell who was pro-active on the issue of same-sex marriage during his two-term stint as Mayor of Philadelphia in 90s recently signed a bill offering benefits to domestic partners of state employees. Gay rights advocates seem pleased with the first states taken by many politicians at a local and state level but have shown displeasure with the tepid support shown by President Obama. As mentioned often during their 2008 campaign for the White House Obama and Vice President Joe Biden favor Civil Unions but oppose gay marriage.

Regardless of the veracity and support of which politicians choose to favor or oppose same-sex at the moment, many polling experts like Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com see a “tipping point” for the issue socially.

As gay rights become more accepted in a state, more gay people come out of
the closet. And once straight people realize how many of their friends and
relatives are gay, they're more likely to be supportive of gay rights. Recall
that the average American knows something like 700-people. So if 5% of your
friends and acquaintances are gay, that's 35 people you know - if they come out
and let you know they're gay. Even accounting for variation in social networks -
some people know a hundred gay people, others may only know ten. There's the
real potential for increased awareness leading to increased acceptance. -- Nate Silver / Fivethirtyeight.com